Comments by "Michael Nurse" (@michaelnurse9089) on "Jo Bhakdi" channel.

  1. There is group 4 as well. Of course, group 3 cannot be allowed to know about this. Sorry.
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  2. I think Tesla should use the cash generated from Robotaxi to scale up Optimus is a dramatic way. No share buybacks. No buying companies. No investing in Bitcoin. Everything flows into Optimus.
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  3. The Herbert Ong interview with Gary Black was the craziest thing I ever saw. This week Gary Black said that Uber will NEVER be threatened by Tesla and FSD. I dropped everything and spent the rest of the week figuring out how to yolo my portfolio by shorting Uber. Never pulled the trigger but came close.
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  4. 100% it will not replace every job. But 100% it will replace some portion of every type of job. If that portion is 20% or more you will see massive wage compression. Anedotal: I remember when I graduated high school a guy in my class did a Microsoft system engineer course and was driving a new BMW within 3 months. Within two years oversupply meant that same qualification paid 10% of the previous amount - not enough to afford to pay rent or drive to work - less than MacDonalds. There are already programmers using prompting who output about 30x a typical programmer. Translation is dead. Digital art is dead. Stock photography is dead. Two years from now all drivers will be gone.
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  5. And Gary Black is a Tesla Bull. Ross Gerber takes the cake for the Bears.
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  6. Not only is it a full time job but it requires an additional $100k per annum earned by the spouse to fund that job, at least in optimal conditions.
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  7. Tesla imports about 30% per vehicle from these countries depending on the model. GM, Ford and Stellantis import about 70%. Thus Tesla must raise prices by 7.5% while the others by 18.75%. Tesla gains share but overall volumes fall. Of course, this is all irrelevant because Trump is negotiating - the final result will not be a trade war. It would kill the economy and stock market and that is the last thing Trump wants.
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  8. Part of the problem is that there was recently a 20 year increase in life expectancy. I have two kids and live in a highly cramped situation. I look over the back wall every day at the 75 year old guy living alone in a massive house he always lived in. Humanity is richer now than it ever was but most of that wealth is tied up with the boomer generation.
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  9. Lol. Scar tissue is a thing.
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  10. Elon said DOGE could go another year. It might actually be cheaper to focus on Optimus and then Tesla just pays off the government debt out of cash.
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  11. The chick in the stock photo is not single.
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  12. To support your thesis research into how women choose partners shows only one thing matters - money (and future prospects of money). Everything else is just background noise. And if women earn their own money they won't marry a lower earning man.
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  13. Stop calling it Twitter.
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  14. CATL and BYD can scale energy storage - not in the US or Europe though...humanoid robots is going to see competition - but makers will have to partner or do a merger with a producer (Hyundai already owns Boston Dynamics).
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  15. Should robots also pray?
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  16. Watch the intro to the movie Idiocracy.
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  17. The very first FSD 12 video with E2E was the moment for me. I took every cent I had and went 100% into Tesla. I was hoping for a doubling of Tesla's value thanks to FSD. FSD 13 feels like vindication.
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  18. It called rhetoric. Politicians use it to bluff. The forget previous rhetoric in the blink of an eye if it suits them.
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  19. No money. No troops. No friends. Those are funny cards.
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  20. Disagree with the babies thing - economists keep repeating this idea because a long time ago governments decided unfunded pensions are a good idea - just steal from the younger generation. This genuinely stupid idea only works with a stable or growing population. Earth is probably best suited to 1bn or so people. Anything more an resources become strained - even more so with an infinite free labour force. Not all resources can be mined from Asteroids or other space bodies.
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  21. "No business plan survives first contact with customers." "Everyone has a plan until they get a new competitor."
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  22. Nothing much was really destroyed. The main cities are intact. The fighting taking place in the countryside. Compare that to WW2 where major cities were reduced to rubble. Sure, they have to get back to their normal lives and so on. Poland is their neighbor and doing exceptionally well.
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  23. If you watch the Animatrix - the animated introduction stories - the Robots demanded equal rights to humans and humans capitulated. Two decades later they put all the humans in snot buckets with an audio jack into their spinal cord.
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  24. Its an epic movie scene and a good quote but Tesla was basically last to take this direction. Tesla will win because prototypes are easy and mass production at low cost is insanely hard.
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  25. Infinite demand long term. First production runs will sell out but demand will not be infinite.
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  26. Jo did 100% last year - mostly during the stagnant 1st half. Chris Camillo has 10x'ed his money five times in a row but he takes 10x leveraged risks. These things are possible if you have infinite risk tolerance, which I don't really have at the moment.
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  27. Jo - I think you have the technology risk wrong - by this stage the chance that Robotaxi's don't work well enough is trending to zero. Version 14 in June. V15 in December - the rate of improvement is way too high. On the other hand, 10% for Optimus is too low, it is still in the prototype stage with remote operators. I think the technology risk is high there - if Tesla stalls or takes a wrong turn and someone else pulls ahead then Tesla becomes what AMD is to Nvidia. I would put it at 30%.
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  28. Please can you just share the Google Sheet as read only.
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  29. I beleive this to be 100% correct. When there are no other moats cost becomes the only differentiator. Tesla builds factories that smash cost.
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  30. Bill, Steve, Larry, Sergey, Jeff - all left or died. Nothing happened. I do think Elon is different though...Tesla will no longer bet the farm on new innovations.
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  31. Democrats are going to have an apoplectic fit when DOGE replaces government with Optimus bots.
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  32. I think Robotaxi is going to have social resistance against it, much like Uber did in the early days. Moreso because the US is arguably the richest nation which leads to non-economic mass behavior. They should rather launch Robotaxi in Mexico or Poland, middle income economies. Optimus will have zero social resistance until it shows up in the employment figures by which stage it will be a massively success already. Optimus does have potential competition - it is easy to say only Tesla can pull it off at scale, but Boston Dynamics is owned by Hyundai now, and China will likely move fast to mass production - see what they did with EVs these last few years. Bottom line, I think Optimus will be the major catalyst in 2028 - 2025, 2026, 2027 - there be both Robotaxi and Optimus minor catalysts - but until the 'Alien Dreadnought' is pumping out a million robots a month I think Tesla stock will be stuck below 1000. Not that 1000 is a an awful price - only I prefer 20k a share.
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  33. Elon will be de facto leader of the US, the UK, Germany and France - with a friendly report with China. Interesting times.
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  34. Especially in the US. Life expectancies have ballooned but the chronic disease rate keeps going up. Of course, lonely people often want to die, and it remains to be seen if machines are a good substitute for people on that front.
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  35. If a man's paycheck or pride depends on him not seeing something he will insist that you imagined it. Even if it is potentially life threatening, like a crack in a dam wall.
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  36. Biden and Kamala were going for that. It did not end well.
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  37. Tesla is a startup with a cash burn of negative 2bn a quarter.
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  38. Closed software environments are always a moat. Moats protect large players from smaller ones. If you are large and they are small economies of scale dictate you are winning anyway - as long as your moat holds. See Nvidia and CUDA. See Microsoft and Windows. See Apple and App Store.
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  39. 1984 was perpetual war. Trump wants peace? Or are you using double-speak?
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  40. Heavy industry switched to robotics in the 80's. Amazon's robots are the 1980's dumb version - not the 2030 smart version. Very different.
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  41. Facebook has gone up in price because they realize that its going to die. Once people realize they can just ask their LLM - say ChatGPT - "Tell me what my friends have been up to" using an app on your phone will seem antiquated. Since they realized this they have started pushing up the amount of ads while reducing ROI for advertisers. Google too with search. Every wave coming into shore is tallest just before it breaks. The wave will take a couple of years if not a decade to break because habits, cash, buybacks, brand and so on. Nokia did not die the day the iPhone was revealed.
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