Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Christopher Forsbäck - Russia is not as Strong as we Fear - It's Time to Take the Gloves off to Win." video.

  1. Yes Ive figured this one out since the 90s. Russia may be a massive big power with thousands of tanks millions of men ready to sweep and attack Europe(or through the Fulda Gap west Germany in the cold war) but again we have always overestimated the Russians(and SOviets). Yes they may have a massive well equipped army which looks scary but in reality the Russian army has a lot of doctrinal problems, the command structure is overly centralized which results in poor flexibility of command during combat situations. the army is massively corrupt, the Russian patronage system favors who you know rather than ability so you get officers who are incompetent, discipline is poor, the Russian army is a peacock that likes to strut around likes its the best army in teh world, to hide its bad weaknesses. and it shows in Ukraine. The Russian army is good at fighting short fast wars like vs. Georgia, Syrian and Chechen insurgents(not so good with a determined able enemy like the Chechens as it took two decades and two wars to subjugate them with a population of around 10 million). Now Russia thought it could do a fast war with ukraine. Probably the most populous country that Russia has invaded post cold war. Even though the Russians have 10X the economy, 3-4 X the population, 10X the number of tanks planes, APCs vs. Ukraine and attacked with relative surprise, all these weaknesses in doctrine, leadership , command and control , training, discipline and esp. motivation and morale came to fore, that allowed Ukraineto quickly recover from the shock of invasion take back 50 percent of what it lost in 9 months and stalemate the bigger Russian army and inflict so far 300K to 400K casualties on the Russians in nearly 2 years of war. In nearly two years of war, the Russian army lost 50 percent more men than all the wars fought after WW2 combined. Heck Im not surprised by the time this war ends. it would be twice or three times that.
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  2. if putin ever decides to suicidally start a war with NATO, Russia would get its ass kicked hard. Putin knows this. that is why its all bluster and he is scared white of NATO.
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  3. also there is that mouse epidemic that is currently raging in Eastern Ukraine , seems the Russian leadership is not concerned with it, coupled with horrible overloaded Russian health care system, very poor battlefield medical, shortages in medicines and first aid kits, poor santiation in Russian positions, poor discipline. Im not surprised if you get viral and bacterial epidemics among the Russians. adding to their misery, casualties and disrupting their ability to fight. and as I said the longer Russia is in thsi war, the worse is it for them.
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  4. I forsee after the Russians lose this war, a collapse in the Russian army in Ukraine occurs, with teh Russian officers first to abandon their troops, the Russian army in Ukraine becomes a mob confused no central command abandoned by their officers and leadership and desperate to go back home. It will be a catastrophe as their is poltical and economic chaos in Russia, Russian leadership in Moscow is more concerned in power struggles as to who will rule than the well being of their soldiers in Ukraine. It will be so bad, that I think the Ukrainian army will have to disarm and demobilize the Russian troops without assistance from the Russians. forcibly in many cases. I can see mass surrender by Russian troops reminiscent of the surrenders of Iraqi troops during Desert storm 1991. and I can see Ukrainians having to combat Russian troops who refuse to surrender or are trying to fight their way back to Russia with their weapons and equipment intact. I can see the Russian troops not only sacking what is left of occupied Ukraine but also sacking Russian border towns and cities. and they go back to Russia, made worse by collapse of law and order in Russia, and also there will be epidemics in Russia as the medical system also collapses.
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  5. yah that is why I think the Russians are suffering a lot more dead than the Ukrainians, due to their sucky battlefield medical system where officers only get evaced out of the battlefiled, shortages in first aid kits , an overloaded Russian civlian medical system and due to the Russian military leadership and gov not caring about their own troops. what could have been treatable battlefield wounds, are often fatal to Russian soldiers. Also the sanitation at Russian trenches is horrible, and there is a mouse epidemic that is spreading among the Russians, so the risk of fatal infected wounds or just sickeness is much highter. that is why the Ukrainians are able to recover their casualties a bit more than the Russians who just mobilize more men and send them to the front rather than recovering casualties, heck the Russians even force their casualties to stay and fight at the front. So yah according to western estimates Russian casualties run from 300K to 500K but out of that I think there is a 50 percent death rate due to poor medical and other factors I described above, so Russian dead I can picture from 150K to 250K dead, meanwhile the Ukrainians 300K casuatlies of that 30K to 60K dead. I think the Russians can sustain this loss rate for the next few years but it will impact their economy and society greatly as the war goes on, and the hardest impact will be post war whether the Putin regime survives or not.
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  6. This flexibility of command in western doctrine being used by the Ukrainians is key to the reason why the Ukrainians are able to hold off and even defeat the Russians who have firepower and numerical superiority
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