Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Alexander Motyl - Is the Idea that Russia is Too Big to Fail Holding Back Western Strategic Support?" video.

  1. Ukraine has come a long way since the start of the war in late Feb 2022 when many foreign analysts forecast Urkaine would be overrun and defeated by Russian in a few days or weeks to now where the Ukrainians are doing major offensive to take lost territory while the Russians are trying to hold on to what they conquered noting the Russians still have a superior(in terms of firepower, manpower number of vehicles and equipment) army and a way bigger GDP vs. Ukraine. Ukraine is not only holding on but actually retaking lost territory and have stalemated the Russians, that is a MASSIVE ACHIEVEMENT.
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  2. well I think Russia's neighbours will be intervening in Russian internal affairs in the fturue, most notably the Turks, Iranians, the CHinese, NATO EU,
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  3. well I think the Gaza war was deliberately started with teh prompting from Iran , Russia and China in order to throw a monkey wrench in the US support for Ukraine with support diverted to Israel along with media attention but most importantly, to piss off American muslims, and they are concentrated in Michigan which is an important voting state for the democrats. So a war in Gaza helps Biden lose the 2024 USA elections with possibly American Muslims abstaining to vote for anyone.
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  4. good thing the Russian army of 2023 is much less competent than the German army of 1941.
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  5. as for suprises I remember when the Russian Kharkov front collapsed in late 2022, with the watermark being the Ukrainian capture of Izyum and the collapse of en entire Russian army with the remantns fleeing back to Russia by foot, stolen cars and bicycles LOL. and the Ukrainians capturing 450 Russian AFVs. As igor Girkin put it, the largest lost of Russian armour since the battle of Kursk 1943. in this case the Russians abandoned the armour haahaha.
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  6. my view is that Russia after a defeat in Ukraine, results in a much weakened Moscow gov and military and more decentralized Russia ruled by Oligarchs. Where Russian republics and oblasts have a bit more autonomy and Russian leaders who are puppets of the oligarchs, who are backed up by their PMCs. The real Russian military power will be the PMCs who serve under the oligarchs, politicos , army generals. These guys are the ones who will most likely maintain order in Russia. Russia will be a great game of influence between USA and China. (along with other countries), It will be like the 90s but lasting for decades, in fact, the oligarchs will not allow someone like Putin to ever come to power agian.
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  7. well the Russian military doctrine is the best defense is an offence. constant offensives is the best defense. and also their scaling up is that they probably know 2024 is a very important year due to the Russian and USA elections coming in the same year. and they want to get hte upper hand before certain events force their decisions.
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  8. I think the breaking poiint for this war would be the results of the 2024 USA elections I think this would determine the final outcome of this war. If Biden is reelected, and even worse the demos get a majority in congress and senate, holy crap, this will be the breaking point that the elites will remove Putin, his double patrushev etc. from power since the war is lost and they want to salvage whatever is left of their economy and get normal relations with the west again, I predict this would be an intial withdrawal from Urkaine except for the crimea which will be negotiated, I think the Russians will withdraw from Crimea later. in exchange for total lifting of sanctions. and normalized relations with the west and possibly billions of USD in economic aid.
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  9. I think the doubles know they are on borrowed time since he can be killed anytime if his usefullness is done and gone. I think the story of the doubles is fascinating, heck just like the Saddam doubles coming out after the Iraq war, their story will also be told, probably a movie made
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  10. in this war Russian generals have simply been the worst , comparable to teh worst Soviet generals of WW2, like Budyonny and Pavlov. total incompetents. a few have been competent but nothing on the level of good generals like the Ukrainians have.
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  11. Russian politics is really black comedy, if all this was true, it would make a very excellent movie hahahaah
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  12.  @klaasvakie  WTF are you smoking???? hjahhhahahahha
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  13. I believe not only Putin has doubles but he actually died a few weeks ago, but he has been debiliated for several months now so Patrushev shoigu have probably been ruling Russia for almost a year now. I think they are just waiting for the results of the 2024 USA elections and with the results they will decide whether to stop this war or continue it. I think this war will end in 2025 or 2026 with a either a decisive Ukrainian victory with Russia totally withdrawing from Ukraine including Crimea. or a marginal Russian victory with Russia still keeping Ukrainian terrtiory before an armistice.
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  14. in the future yah there will be the Russian liberals vs the nationalist conservatives vying for power int he Russian post Putin post war political landscape how I do think the oligarchs will be the real power behind the throne. and of course both parties will be allied with foreign powers USA UK EU would support the liberals while China wouuld support the conservative nationalists. but at the back the oligarchs would be the ones really calling the shots, and have their own PMCs to back them up. with Russian oligarchs having their own PMCs Im not surprised you have small wars wihtin Russia being one group of oligarchs fightin gone another for territory and resources with the pMCs of local politicos and the Russian army thrown in for good measure. to keep things interesting.
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