Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Whatifalthist" channel.

I disagree that drones did not really affect the how wars are fought in fact, drones have a massive effect in terms of artillery and missle targetting etc. I agree that the Russo Japanese war shaped WW1 and Ukraine war will shape WW3, and I think drones will be much upgraded that what it is now, like being more relaible , more rugged cheaper to build, with accurate in terms of weapons handling. etc.
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@joshuamitchell5018 well drones were used in past wars first time usage was during WW2, when the Germans were raining drone bombs over the UK. Modern day drone warfare started during the Invasion of Lebanon in 82 where the Israelis used drones as decoys for Syrian SAMs. and also spoofed Syrian radars. Drones are revolutionary in this war as its seen the mass use of drones on a scale not seen in past wars. and witih inventive ways . Also the Ukrainians got to practice NATO doctrine and weapons on Russia which was the intended enemy.
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@Perspective.z0 and Russian doctrine put to the test in Ukraine, failing very badly vs. NATO doctrine
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I think WW3 will be a relatively short affair when compared to WW1, 2, Korean war, I think it will be over in 1-2 years. My view is USA/NATO/ANZAC/Ukraine/Taiwan/South korea/Japan vs. China/Russia/North Korea. the rest will be neutral or cheering for one side or another from the bleachers but not militarilly intervenilng. Countires like Singapore, Philippines will probably not send in military forces but will have their territory hosting Allied military units. and basing rights. I think no nukes will be used. with land war being limited to Ukraine border areas between NATO and Russia, with naval actions in the Atlantic, med, caspian and black seas., in the Europe and in Asia, the South China sea, sea of Japan, the Taiwan straights , the pacific and Taiwan itself. the war in Europe will be mainly a ground war and the war in Asia will be mainly a naval air war. and I dont think it will be the bloodiest war in history , in fact WW3 will be the least bloodiest war by orders of magnitude when compared to WW1 and 2 but will still be the bloddiest war in the 21st century by far if you fold in the Ukraine war whcih has been going on since 2014. (just like the Second Sino Japanese war was going on in 1937 and was folded into WW2 starting 1941. I think NATO and its allies will win this one but will suffer heavy losses but nothing compared to the losses of the Sino-Russian alliance which will lose badly. The Allies I think dont press the Alliance too much on war reparations but the Russian and Chinese leadership undergo changes will the leaders being kicked out of pwoer and replaced with moderates. who blame their predecessors for their problems and try to resume business as usual relationships with the west. However the economies and political pwoer structures of China and Russia have been greatly affected badly. which greatly affects their social stability. the military, prestige and economic losses of China and Russia causes massive unrest. even when sanctions are dropped and financial aid is resumed. Russia loses about 25 percent of its territory to secession which the Moscow gov does not do anything about. with notable secessions being Chechnya which becomes an independent nation. Then things stabilize with what is left of Russia becoming a more or less democratic pro West nation as investments eventually after a decade flow back normally into Russia. China on the other hand , the CCP hold on power weakens and the PLA imposes martial law in hte face of massive unrest. a hundred thousand or so are killed in nationwide crackdowns on unrest. not seen since the cultural revolution. Due to the war , instability and the crackdows, investmests mostly dont go back to China despite Chinese are trying to advertise business as usual Western investments go to India and SOuth East Asia instead making Chinese economic recovery painfully slow. China isolates itself from the world. massive amounts of Chinese refugees flee from China as the bamboo curtain falls. (includes Hong Kong and Macau). The CCP and PLA try to do a internal capitalist system isolated to China and North Korea. with authoritairian CCP party control seperate from the world economic system. There is a new cold war between USA and China with two seperate world and political economic systems not seen since the cold war.
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in this timeline. Savimbi and UNITA wins in Angola due to Cape support. and no SADF mercs helping to kick him out. Angola becomes a Cape ally. Iriphabuliki is a zimbabwe like economically depressed country which has been rearming with Chinese and North korean help in order to conquer the Cape Republic. By 2021. due to 1 or two major wars between the two countries and constant border conflict. Both have national conscription. THe Cape military is more advanced, more professional and well trained while the Irphabuliki is larger in size. In the wars and border conflicts between them, the Cape usually comes out on top. though by 2021 , the irphabuliki has a much improved military due to Chinese help. China controls the Iriphabuliki econmomy just like it controls the Zimbabwean economy. Also this changes history , in the Congo wars. without Angolan internvention, Kabilla is deposed , the 2nd congo war is a minor war. and the DRC is ruled by a Pro Rwanda gov. with wamba or bemba as pres. So in thsi timeline, as of 2021, the Cape's allies in Africa are Angola, DRC, Rwanda and Burundi. everyone else is allied to Irphabuliki.
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Japan is an American dependency. similiar to that of the Philippines pre independence 1947. Good base to trade with China and support the USSR. Also American corporations have lots of industry here as its industries and infrastructure were built up in the late 40s to 50s as a staging ground for American support of the USSR in their war with Germany.
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i highly dont agree that india China or the west will intervene in a Pakistani civl war which I dont think will occur. The pakistani military keeps everything in check.
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@amerigo88 and guess who trained the Iraqi army, Soviet advisors and the Russian army doctrine of 2023 is not much different than that of the Soviet times.
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@graye2799 actually flak cannons are returning, well if you count the ZSU-23s and 32s and the 0.50 and 12.7 quad guns being used to shoot down drones. and also low flying aircraft.
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the reason why Pakistan has not broken is due to support from China and to some extent the USA. , the USA and China keep the Pakistani financial system and economy from collapsing. and also the Pakistani military is still strong and calls all the shots in the country. Pakistani PMs are just figureheads. the real rulers of Pakistan is the Chief of staff of the Pakistani army.
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in the what is CSA still exists timeline this would turn out. in the Great war, the CSA sends troops to help the Allies in Europe, USA takes advantage to invade the CSA, and British Canada, suffers a stalemate. Central powers win overall. WW2, Central powers still win, USA conquers the CSA. Post WW2.: Three superpowers, USA(incorporating CSA and British Canada), Germany(Id say later the AUstro Hungarian empire , Moldova and Wallachia becomes part of Germany), & Japan(with an empire incorporating all of South East Asia, China, Soviet Far East , Mongolia, Malaya, Indian states, Dutch East Indies all the way to Papua New Guinea , Samoa, The empire is composed of puppet client states who are controlled economically and politically with strong military prescense by the Japanense with a single currency the Yen. Australia and New Zealand , are American allies and garrisoned with AMerican troops. All are nuke powers. There is grave tension between the USA and Japan due to the massive Japanese military presence in Hawaii and the strong Amreican military presence in Australia and New Zealand along with Japanese attempts to influence Latin American nations and American support for insurgents in the Japanese empire. Germany maintains good relations with the USA and Japan. and often acts as referee.
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I made an alternate history setting for the savage worlds RPG where the Genghis khan died in his youth and the Mongols did not become a world changing event. Its a cyberpunk alternate 2020 where most of the world are corporate states. with the Chinese corporates being the most dominant. industrialization started in the 15th century in China. The biggest war fought was the Great war in the 1700s. Between the Chinese Empire , the Muslim sultanates vs. a fascist expnasionist spartan like ideology militarized Polish-Anglo Saxon centro Euro empire. the main fronts were in North and South Americas, Africa , and central Asia. a decade long war where jets , nukes chemical weaopns tanks , rapid fire weapons were used. the Chinese and her allies won but the war was quite brutal leading to the fall of the dynastic system in China , turning it into a monarchic republic with strong corporate leanings.
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also in LKY malaysia, the Chinese population grew a lot taking in Indonesian chinese running away from the pogroms in Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia also took in a lot of Christian indonesian refugees. Indonesia in this timeline is a sort of Islamic semi shariah military controlled state which is increasingly being armed with Chinese weapons.
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21st century ideology = MONEY
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India has nukes. India has a formidable military. I dont think China will invade India but will menace it. NO India pakistan war due to Chinese threats on India. also no invasion by Myanmar of Bangladesh, South Asia would be quiet but have a simmering tension. The battle for the South China sea would be China/North Korea/Russia vs. USA, Japan, Taiwan, India, South Korea., Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore. Vietnam. I dont think the Chinese will invade Vietnam probably just menace it, the Chinese already has its hands full fighitng in Taiwan and South Korea. as well as trying to control the south and east China sea.
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I think Pakistan would have been crushed by both the USSR, China and India since they dont want a Japanese or American client state in their backyards . I can see, the 1962 border clash between China and Pakistan(instead of India) being a catalyst for war with Soviet supported indian and Chinese invasion of Pakistan and East Pakistan in 1962. Japanese threaten war but are counter threatened by the USSR who threatens to intervene.
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well as for the Causaian war I agree with you on most points except for Turkey invading the Crimea. nope, that would turn NATO against Turkey. however I do expect Turkey to be a future enemy of the USA however he will be limited for now with USA and EU supporting Armenia and Georgia but yah when Russia goes into civil war Turkey will be a major player in the Caucasus supporting their Chechen proxies, Saudi Arabia will also be supporting Turkey.
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@amerigo88 with the current tech I think no, so the other viable cheapo option are flak guns.
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@amerigo88 or good ole cheapo rifle fire, I remember what the Afghans would do to bring down Soviet helicopters, they got a whole group of them laid down on the ground armed with AKs and just shot auto in the air. same can be done with drones. (did not work vs. MIl mi 24s and SI-25s).
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@amerigo88 yes I highly agree with you on this. Its become a battle of economies, the loser is the first to have his economy collapse thereby dominoing to the loss of political and social stability. I personally do not see a Ukraine surrender in 2026 I think more like a Russian economic collapse by 2026, since the Russian wealth fund is set to bankrupt in 2024. However we both agree right now its a war of attrition very similiar to the Iraq Iraq war attrition phase which went on from 82 to the end of the war in 88.
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Well as for the Chinese, I think they will trade with Germany and the USA , the Chinese KMT have been on friendly terms with the Nazis even the Germans supported the Japanese, during the 1937-1945 war, the Germans were acting as diplomatic middle men between the KMT and the Japanese and the Germans were selling weapons to the KMT , also Chiang Kai Shek much admired the Germans. In this timeline since no German declaration of war with the USA, KMT China also does not declare war on Germany. Both the KMT and Germany still maintain friendly relations throughout the war, the KMT defeats the warlords and integrates them into the KMT and exterminates the CHinese commies. in the subsequent Chinese civil war 1946-1949 phase or aka pacification of the warlords and communists era, after the Japanese surrender. The Chinese communists. The KMT Chinese are also friendly with the USSR. The USSR massively helped the KMT Chinese with large amounts of volunteers, advisors and weapons from 1937-1941 to fight Japan. This has not been forgotten. China in this timeline since the mid to late 50s becomes the workshop of the world for both Germany and the USA, with the CHinese under a authoritarian KMT party providing to what China is providing now for foreign corporations. Cheap place to manufacture goods. By 2021 China is the 3rd largest economy in the world, with a dynamic capitalist economy and a authoritarian KMT one party gov. which seems to change leaders every 4 years since the 80s after the death of CHiang Kai Shek's son Chiang Ching Kuo. standards of living for the average Chinese rival that of the USA. China has close economic ties with Germany and the USA and on friendly political terms with both. also on friendly terms with the USSR and serves as a trade window and middle man with the rest of hte world to that closed state. China also has strong influence with its Asian neighbours esp. Korea which is practically a Chinese puppet state dependency dominated by Chinese corporations. In this timeline China does not invade TIbet but its independent gov. is strongly influenced by the Chinese.
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well its may and the Russians aree still far from conquering Ukraine.
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I dont think WW3 happens, both sides are not suicidal and I think Putin's generals will not follow Putins orders to launch a nuke
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and the Japanese were fighting hundreds of years of civil wars. that mirrored Europe. so that allowed them to adopt western tech as a necessity
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well I think we have just finished the 1st trend which is the war on terror which started in 2001 and finished in 2021(with the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and fall of Afghanistan to the Taliban). . similiar to the great war 1914-1918 and the preceding pre war preparing for the great war period 1900 to 1914. I think the 2nd trend now is the rise of China and confrontation cold war between China vs. the USA which while simmering decades hence is probably going to come full bloom starting 2020. with the start of the pandemic. I dont see a direct conventional/nuke war between USA and China but I think it will be like the USA/USSR cold war 1945-1990, both sides using proxies and the war between USA and CHina will be mainly economic. Russia will be the third power that will act as a jester wild card. There wont be a WW3 between the great powers since all of em have a substantial number of nukes which can end the world.
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post ww3 would be Russia in political chaos, China is a revolution/civil war(which causes scares due to warring factions and "warlords" having nukes both have collapsed economies wrecked militaries. . North Korea wrecked , military driven back across the 38th parallel with massive losses. NK in civil war, possible peacekeeping intervention by UN with ROK and American troops in North Korea, Chinese factions make noise but cant do anything about it due to them busy fighting each other.. USA comes out on top. new hegemony not seen since hte collapse of the USSR in 1990. Taiwan declares independence. New reformist more liberal gov. in Iran , closer ties with the USA and west, nuke program dismantled, Iran cuts ties to the Hezbollah in public, civil war in Venezuela as economy really collapses without RUssian and Chinese support. UN and OAS peacekeeping in Venezuela with USA support.
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While the Japanese manage to take Ceylon, Hong Kong, , Malaya, Singapore rapidly and threaten India and the British suffers naval defeats in the Indian ocean and SOuth China sea. The Japanese offensive runs out of steam along with stiff British and Russian resistance. KMT CHinese hold for a defensive . British and Russian counteroffensives maul the Japanese. and drive them back , stalemate in Burma and Soviet mongolia. Japanse defeats in the Indian Ocean prevents landings in southern India.
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well the Philippines is actually closer to Latin america culturally than it is to Asia. Heck the PH was ruled through Mexico for a few hundred years until Mexico threw the Spanish in the 19th century.
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world tech would be retarded in this timeline without the renaissnace or the renaissance being delayed by say a few hundred years. The world of 2020 in this timeline would have the same tech level as say 18th century Europe.
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So positing in this scenario , the nuke war starts in 1953, so instead of the death of Stalin, Stalin starts WW3 . So historically in 1955, USSR had 200 nukes , the USA had around 2500 nukes. So In 1953, USSR would have 150 nukes. In an event of WW3 in 1953, USA would have had enough nukes to nuke both the Chinese and the USSR. So let's say the USA uses 1500 nukes on the USSR, 500 nukes on China. As for Soviet bombers, circa 1953, the longest ranged one which can reach the USA was the TU-4, esssentially a reverse engineered B-29, which can reach Los Angeles or Chicago on a one way suicide run from the edge of USSR territory. the USA on the other hand can hit most of the USSR with B-36s and B-47s and B-29s. Yah let's say the USSR gets lucky manages to nuke NYC, DC and LA but nukes hundreds of cities on the Chinese and Soviet side. The USA would win WW3, USSR and China will not collapse but will be so hard hit and they would become insular nations with their communist govs trying to hold on to power. Their economic systems cant handle the strain and both countries would probably collapse in 10-20 years. Europe would get hit hard with Soviet nukes. US would again marshal plan Europe while isolating the USSR and China. As of 2021, USA is the sole superpower of the world. Even more so than it is now. USSR and China have balkanized into seperate states. With the whole world under the sway of the USA since the 60s. with the collapse of the USSR and China. USA and its allies focus on Space colonization. By 2021, we have moon bases , start of mars colonies. World corporations start becoming more and more powerful. and have so much influence on USA and world politics. It can be said that the USA of 2021 is a corporate run state with both parties as their mouth pieces.
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@genalynnesanjuan5788 that is quite true. I highly agree with you. USA wins and becomes the supreme super power in the world only to become a corporate state dictatorship masquerading as a dictatorship, if the USA does not have anyone to fight, it stagnates and so does the rest of the world. That is why I said in the end. Its a corporate state that has the 2 poltical parties as mouth pieces or a Corporate oligarchy masquerading as a democracy.
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@genalynnesanjuan5788 I can see some countries stepping up to the plate like a possible Japanese-Chinese-Russian led corporate alliance to oppose American corporates. sometime in the 2000s.
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I think the Japanese would have still tried to fight to retain their empire out of pride and ego, the Japanese would long be fighting American, Soviet, Chinese and Indian funded guerilla rebel movements all over their empire. The Japanese would use overwhelming brutal military force to try to crush them but would be unsuccessful and would be a drain to their resources and worse the Japanese would even lose more resources trying to fund their own factions in South America vs. the Americans., I think the most rebellious parts of their empire would be the the Malay and Chinese regions, and Burma. and yes I think the catalyst for the collapse of the Japanese empire would be the rise of the internet in the late 90sand the tsunami which would a horrible Japanese response would start a general uprising in Indonesia, Malaya, Ceylon, Thailand and spreading to the Philippines, Burma, Indochina. and even to the mainland Chinese puppet states. The Japanese would try to suppress even with the use of nuclear and chemical and bio weapons but this will just illicit massive worldwide condemnation further isolating the Japanese(such as it is) and leading to strong tensions with the USA, India and China, NATO(all nuclear armed). Japan withdraws from major parts of its empire but keeps, Hainan, Formosa, Korea and Manchuria and Hawaii and Pacific islands. the Chinese states are subsumed by the Chinese commies and I dont think they would still keep Maoism, in this timeline Mao is deposed in a coup by his head general Lin Biao(in OTL, his coup failed) in the early 70s but go for authoritarian capitalism which massive American economic investments and the Americans see the Japanese as a military bulwark vs. the much reduced but still existing isolationist Japanese empire who the USA still sees as a grave threat. As for the former Japanese colonies and puppet states in the SEA, the Philippines, Indonesia(also including Brunei and all of Borneo, Malaya(also includes Singapore) join into a huge malay state called Maphilindo with a unique three head of state federated ruling system. its nationalistic authoritarian and not democratic with a very anti Japanese slant. Maphilindo, New Guinea(also including Irian Jaya and Timor) would be turned into Australia(which includes New Zealand and Fiji and Samoa) client states. Indochina would encompass, Vietnam , Laos and Cambodia, Burma , Thailand independent states. Ceylon would become an Indian client state, all of them USA and Chinese supported. So after hte fall of the USSR. the USA now main rival is Japan which has now become a isolationist authoritarian state with North Korea levels of control over the non Japanese populations within eht empire but varying degrees of freedom for the ethnic Japanese.
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As for South Am, yah its a player but its quickly crushed by the americans who view Latin America as its protected sphere of influence and would brutally crush anyone who tried to put an influence there esp. the Japanese. who the USA still have a hate on.
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An alternate LKY pres. Malaysia would be the richest country in the ASEAN, and with a much higher land population and resource to play with, it would become the most economically dominant country not only in the ASEAN and perhaps in Asia rivalling that of Japan, south Korea and China. Military wise, it would become the most military powerful country in the ASEAN rivalled that by Indonesia where it has a off an on tense relationship with. The main powerhouse cities of Malaysia would be Kuala Lumpur(the political capital), Singapore(the economic capital, which would be larger in this timeline incorporating the city of Johor) and Penang(the 2nd economic capital). In this Malaysia , while the Malays are the most numerous in population , the Chinese population is large enough to be a rival minority in terms of demographics, also the Indian population is also larger. which the CHinese also use to offset the local Malay population(along with Chinese immigration). Together , the Malaysian Chinese and Indian populations outnumber that of teh local Malays. The Malaysia military is also much more powerful than OTL, one of the strongest and most advanced militaries in Asia. and a strong US ally. Also due to tensions with islamic terrorism and with Indonesia, there is military conscription is all male adult Chinese and Indians.
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the USSR is still on a war footing vs. Germany with a militarized society and economy simliar to that of North korea in our timeline. However its supported by the USA and has good economic ties with them. USSR is focused on defense vs. a future war with Germany. which its quite ready. the Soviets also support various partisan actions vs. the Germans in former USSR areas occupied by Germany and Eastern europe. ALso Soviet weapons are used to support anti German partisans in Africa bought with American dollars. This really annoys the Germans to no end.
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Philippines in a timeline where Malaysia is ruled by LKY would be tne 2nd richest country in the ASEAN and close ally of Malaysia. much more stable and more prosperous. and still have US bases on it, Malaysia would also have US bases. moros would be mostly under control and Zamboanga and Jolo would be one of the richest parts of the PH as economic hubs to Malaysia. However Indonesia would be more unstable and more hostile to Malaysia being like the Pakistan of the ASEAN. Indonesia is still pissed off at Malaysia for kicking it out of Borneo. and Timor. Also Indonesia in this timeline is a bit more unstable and has a larger military with a confrontational stance vs. Malaysia and Australia. and known as a hub for Islamic terrorism in the ASEAN. SEATO exists in this timeline with USA, Australia, New Zealand, UK, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia , Philippines, Brunei being members. aimed vs. China, Indonesia and Myanmar. Malaysia has complicated relations with China , China is one of Malaysias top trading partners and also lots of Chinese immigration into Malaysia but it has tense political relations with China. and pissed off at China with China's close support of Indonesia. Indonesia having kicked out most of the Chinese minority in a series of bloody pogroms and nationalized Indo CHinese business interests and having virtulent anti Chinese rhetoric, has close relations with China.
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@worlds3061 Actually I dont hate Indonesia and I like Suharto . but with a LKY Malaysia conquering all of Borneo well Indonesia could become very hostile to Malaysia.
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I dont think North Korea is crazy enough to attack South Korea noting the South Korean military is one of the strongest on the planet and Norht korea is a peacock trying to show off all the time using old cold war weapons, heck even its artillery ammo is shit, and many are duds. as seen in the Ukraine war. Kim fathead un maybe a ahole but he is pragmatic and not stupid. However he may get desperate if China and Russia goes in civil war and some sort of political economic chaos then his two biggest backers are gone and the west wants his blood. He may actually attack in concert with war in Taiwan since his commie monarchy may be at stake if his two biggest backers are kaputski
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LKY Malaysia has close relations with Israel, USA & the Philippines, has its own significant arms industry. Also makes it own brand of cars. The Proton in this timeline is a major car brand exported around the world.
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I dont think Russia would go into Eastern Europe. The war with Russia will focus on Ukraine. in a world war, NATO and the USA would intervene in the Ukraine. and the land war will be there vs. Russia. Some of the biggest tank battles will occur again in the steppes of the Ukraine just like WW2. I dont think China will invade India, China will primarilly fight WW3 with its air force and navy in the South China sea between the PLAN/North Korean navy vs. the USN, ROK Australian , UK navies. CHina and NK will lose. Japan, Taiwan, India will both be probably be neutral but will support the USA diplomatically. There will probably be land war in Korea and NK will lose. along with the US and Philippine marines seizing the Spratlys from China. Turkey and Iran are neutral with Iran diplomatically supporting Russia and China. Saudi and Israel and USA will probably try to goad Iran to war but Iran will not take the bait. Turkey and Iran form close relations.
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@worlds3061 hey this is alternate history. With a more radical Indonesia and the Chinese wanting to weaken the Malaysians, well...they would collude togehter stranger things have happened in history like hitler and stalin being temporary bed buddies.
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as for Taiwan, Taiwan has a formidable military yes the Chinese could invade but it will be a long hard fight if they can actually reach Taiwan, Chinese losses would be horrendous at sea and at the fortified Taiwanese beaches. I dont think the US will invade Vladivostok easern Russia, remember the no invasion or attacks on the USA, Russian and Chinese territories. agreement
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been a while.
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I think USA and its allies would win this one, Chinese and Russian economies would probably collapse. Leading to regime change in Russia, and civil war in China. USA hegemonic power would win out. after China and Russia stop being main enemies, the American and western eye would turn towards Turkey and Iran.
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or what if the confederacy won the civil war or what if the CSA still survived, this scenario would happen.
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Well, Im going for Central powers win WW2 timeline.
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my take on this alternate WW2. start of the war in 1939, USA is neutral , Allies: GB, Russia, France, ITaly, Republic of China vs. Central powers: Germany, Japan, Austro Hungary , Ottoman Empire. Great Britain has a strong rivalry pre war with Germany and Japan, with GB wanting to limit German power in Europe and Japanese power in Asia. GB, France and Russia aids Republic of China in its war with Japan starting 1937. USA is strongly isolationist and its pres. LIndburgh is Pro Germany in general but its policy is Neutral. Japan decides to strike both the Russians and British but ignores the pH and other USA territories. No effect on USA public sentiment and policy. Indochina in this timeline is controlled by the Japanese having conquered it in WW1 from the French. The Japanese attack into Burma and Mongolia along with minor offensives to distract the KMT Chinese in order to cut the supply lines to the KMT CHinese and go into Malaya with the aim of capturing Singapore. British navy is strentched thin fighting major sea battles in the Atlantic vs. the Germans and the Japanese in the south China sea and Indian ocean. Japanese invade Ceylon. as a possible stepping stone to support an invasion into India. no Japanese or German attacks on USA territory and assets. Allies the same. USA while the gov. has German sympathies is selling to all sides.
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this is my view, no WW3, Putin dies or is purged, more moderate Russian gov. oligarch led takes over. blames putin and a bunch of his inner circle for all the problems, withdraws Russian army back to Pre war starting pts. in exchange for most of the sanctions to be removed back to business as usual. War ends in fall to winter of this year or 2023. They purge him since Putin orders nuke strikes on Ukr which is not followed the Russian military, FSB , Oligarchs unite to purge Putin since he is getting more crazy. The war has ruined Russia, economically , politically and its prestige is in tatters. those thousand of Russian war veterans who are psycholigically damaged, angry return to a depressed Russia, massive unemployment , political chaos, this leads to high crime rates, possible Russian civil war revolution. law and order is collapsing in Russia. USA and China economically and politically take advantage. with the USA supporting Pro western Democratic groups and the Chinese supporting more nationalistic and even seperatist Russian groups. Chinese goal control Russian and Central Asian natural resources through proxies. American goal to deny Chinese goals and support a democratic stable Russia. Russian army downsizes Ukraine gets back crimea and Russia totally withdraws from Ukraine. (in excchange for economic aid and end to all sactions), Russia also withdraws from Moldova, Armenia and Georgia. Chechnya declares independence and declares an emirate of the Caucasus. with the support of CHina. and Iran. Belarus gets an independent gov. Ukraine joins the EU. The Russian so called civil war balkanizes Russia. and Russia still exists as a country with the Russian gov. excercising control over the Western part of Russia but control is shaky to non existent east of the Ural mountains, Siberia, Russian far east, Caucasus. where a bunch of Russian republics declare independence or nationalist groups have taken over with warlords and private armies. With a situation similiar to libya where its not a decalred civil war but its a civil war with some armed conflict. Since many of the belligerents have nukes. China encourages this and gains cheap natural resources. along with cheap labor and strong influence on Central Asian countries. So now business as usual except that Russia has fallen badly and China is now the only strong rival to the USA. China studies the Ukraine war hard. starts to reform its armed forces. The fall of Russia has made Russia Central Asia the Caucasus as the new great game between USA and its allies, & China and its allies. in a fight for resources. Putin has left Russia in even in a worse state than when he took over. His legacy is shit.
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