Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "The Cold War"
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my view war will probably end in summer of this year. Russia siimply does not have the standing reserves of soldiers to continue this war, and Putin cant do a draft mobilization of his reserves since the war is really unpopular in Russia and might induce a revolt. Also even if Russian manages to scrap anothe 100K men to right in Ukraine, they will have worse quality than the army that he sent in there a month ago. worse quality, even more poorly trained and even more unmotivated to fight. Also the Russain economy simply cannot support the war with all the sanctions and from FSB estimates the Russian economy cannot support the war by around Summer of 2022. Also Russian logistics is really horrible a really bad joke, very poorly mismanaged, 60 percent of Russian missles are duds,90 percent of Russian AFVs in storage do not work since they were cannibalized for spare parts and poor maintenance while in storage. Ukraine on the other hand, still has millions of able bodied men and women in its reserves very motivated to fight , high morale well armed with billions of USD of NATO weapons adn equipment flowing into the country, Ukraine economy is supported by billions of USD of funds from EU and USA. thousands of foreign volunteers going to Ukraine to fight. The Russians are also fielding thousands of Chechen , African, Syrian, Armenian and maybe even North Korean mercenarires to fight and supposedly they have better motivation to fight than the Russian conscripts but still not enough to win the wart in Ukraine. The Russsians not only cannot win in Ukraine but cant fight an attritional war there too. So how will it end. I think negotiated peace. Russia withdraws all troops from Ukraine keeps the Donabass,Ukraine joins the EU, but not NATO. Donbass and Crimea are both annexed into Russia. most sanctions are lifted from Russia. back to business as usual, Putin remains in power but dies in the next 5-10 years.
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