Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Is Russia winning? -- 30MAY2022" video.

yes agree claims of turning points are premature and we will see in the next week or so how the battle goes, my vbiew is that the Russians might take the Donbass, but they would incur massive casualties and vehicle losses. So much so that it makes them ripe for a Ukr counterattack. looking at the war as it is going, well it seems that Russian goals are getting smaller and smaller and its only month 3 going into month 4. the Russians are going slow and taking huge losses. and the Russian economy cannot absorb the war the longer the war goes. I think the war will end this year probably in the fall or winter. of 2022 maybe going into 2023. Why do I say so,? well the months of June to Sept are months where the terrain of Ukraine in good for mechanized warfare, the ground is open weather clear, and ground is hard. and the Russians will try to use that to their advantage. Right now its slow since the ground is muddy and the Russians are mainly stuck on roads. I can see the Russians making significant gains in the months of June to Sept. then when the rains and mud comes again they will get bogged down. However I do think the Russians will overstretch and incur massive losses and get counterattacked as the Ukrainians will probably switch from infantry guerilla style supplemneted by armor to full on armor but supplemented by off road vehicles with mounted ATGMs. I think both sides will use these off road civilian vehicles and wheeled APCs in the summer months to supplement their tracked AFVs to bring in troops and to conduct maneuver warfare vs. the less maneuverable tracked AFVs destroying them with ATGMs, however I think the Ukrainains will excel better on this side, and have more of them, while the Russians only have them with their elite units. most of their troops will be mounted on tracked APCs
2
well I think Ukr was caught by surprise how coordinated the Russian attack was as they failed in their attacks in the area since 2014 due to extensive ukr defenses in the Donbass. and the Ukr high command has ordered the Ukr forces in the DOnbass to stay put and hold off the Russians, in the meanwhile the Russians have pulled their forces from other fronts to concentrate on donbass, the Ukrs have taken advantage of this and have been counterattacking in the South and East , so yah while the Ukrs have been caught by surprise its not a big surprise and probably in their plans to hit the Russians in their weak points and sever supply lines. So the main attack in Donbass will sputter and stop. and the Ukrs gain more land in the east and south and hopefully inflict catastrophic losses on the Russians.
1
Well I dont think anyone is winning its a stalemate, however on the overall scheme of things Ukraine may be winning. They may have gained territory in the donbass, but they withdrew from larger swathes of land in the North , and the east. and are losing ground in the south.
1