Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Econ Lessons" channel.

  1. I predict Russian ruble will be doing the hyperinflation dance in the next few years. Russian ruble is a memecoin
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  2. I remember being a tourist in the USSR in 83, I bought several glass packs of Soviet black beluga caviar at 5 USD each from a waiter at the Kosmos hotel restaurant, took me to the hotel food storage, he said, sorry we only accept USD, UK Pounds, Deutsemarks and French Franc, and sorry no Yen rubles and Italian Lira he said jokingly. Yah gave him some Philippine and Mexican pesos as gifts haha that made him happy.
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  3. Russian Ruble is practically a meme coin these days. heck Im not surprised if the Russians will accept crypto tokens like DOGE and PEPE over the Russian ruble heck those two crypto tokens are worth more than the Russian ruble LOL
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  4. the Russian also recruited Yemeni Houthis to be cannon fodder, hahah, these guys are used to hot 30 to 40 C temp weather, and these morons are fighting in Ukrainian winter in an area where it can go down to minus 10c or more hahah. and they are of course used for cannon fodder.
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  5. As for the North Koreans, looks like the Russian agreed to pay them more like double what each soldier is getting 4K USD. and supposedly the NKs are reconfiguring their tactics to match those used by the Russians, of course the NKs will be the main cannon fodder. Probably fighting with the newly arrive houthi Yemenis. I expect the NKs to last a few months before they are pulled out again.
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  6. short term survival long term collapse.
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  7. investing in the Russian ruble is like trusting your money to a homeless street junkie. Soon to be a mem ecoin
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  8. yah same with Cramer , anything he says do the opposite. haha
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  9. of course Poland, Poland has been better off than Russia since the 2000s and Russia is declining gradually. After the war is over, not surprised if millions of Russians will be streaming thru Poland to get to the west. Here in Vancouver Canada we have had waves of immigration from different countries , back in the 90s I remember it was from Somalia, former Yugoslav nations, Honduras, El Salvador, Hong Kong , China, being the largest immigrants now its the Indian students, but in the future oh say in a few years, you will see large numbers of Russians immigrating here in Canada.
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  10. well in context, the Russians during the years leading up to the 1917 revolution also lived a lower living standard than their European counterparts at the time. Took them 3 years of war and a decade of humiliation(since their defeat in the 1904-1905 Russo Japanese war) and food shortages and a collapsing economy and ongoing corruption and incompetence from the Czarist gov to break them and make them go into revolution mode. The same will happen with Putin's Russia, lots of parallels with Putin's Russia , and Czar Nicholas II Russia. .
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  11. wooden ships and iron men??? do you play Avalon Hill Board wargames, love them.
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  12.  @billyjoesmo8251  I remember in the 70s and 80s, the USSR will take over the world. hahaha. well it collapsed in 1990.
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  13. probably wont trump likes to tear up deals, so Ukraine will probably tear it up after Trump is gone.
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  14. 25 percent of the Russians dont have plumbing and this is the good times. the so called Putin golden age before the war. its that bad. Only Moscow and St. Petersburg look nice everything else blehhh..
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  15. I hope the Trump regime is short lived like does not finish its term. and Trump Musk Vance all go to prison.
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  16. true about the Ukrainian tactics being late WW1 infiltration tactics, however with a major difference is that is Mechanized infantry mobile infiltration tactics with fast moving military vehicles, coupled with drone and sattelite info. and coordination and attacking into identified Russian weak points. the front lines are long and both sides do not have the manpower to properly fortify it. and yes both sides have manpower issues, but the Russians get a steady stream of renforcements while losing so many that their reinforcement stream is not really keeping up with the losses. Plus Russians have to focus on the Donbass so that is competing with Kursk for Russian reinforcements and Putin considers Kursk numbah 1 priority.
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  17. Its quite funny the North Koreans originally thought they could defeat the Ukrainian and push them out of Kursk and were very arrogant. From what I heard, the NKs they sent are from their 200K strong Special operations forces group. most of them are not true special forces but equivalent of Light Infantry with a better training and morale compared to regular NK army units. NK light infantry are trained for mobility , infiltration of enemy positions, also trained in night fighting. However the tactics these guys used were from the korean war where they were attacking bunched up in open ground in large numbers and even attacking in day and night. well they got slaughtered before they even reached Ukrainian positions due to drones spotting them and calling down drones and artillery with cluster munition on them. since they were bunched up. they made excellent targets. about half the NK force originally sent were casualties in a month. of being deployed. While the Ukrainians suffered much fewer casualties fighting the NKs. the kill ratio was ver much lopsided. like 100 NK casuatlies for 1 Ukrainian one. Quite embarassing for a supposedly elite special forces group. However the Ukrainians rated them much better fighters than the Russians, the NKs fight to the death and do not retreat. and kill themselves rather than be taken alive. and also well trained. Supposely the new batch being sent is retrained to spread out more and attack in smaller groups as the Russians are doing.
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  18.  @jgarbo3541  hahahaha more Russian bots swarming this page hahahaah very funny
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  19.  @Kim-e4g4w  1 peanut the squirrel meme coin is worth more than 1 Russian ruble.
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  20. I notced the Russians are the ones constantly attacking yes, its in their doctrine, the best defence is the best offense, that is how their army was bult, the Russian army of 2024 is practically still the Soviet army of the cold war. while the Ukrainian army started out this war having a hybrid Russian and NATO combat doctrine and throughout the war has been gradually shifting to the NATO combat doctrine. While the Ukrainian army is not yet a fully NATO style army, it is very NATO like in doctrine and equipment, practically a lot of their combat equipment are NATO weapons.
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  21. from what I heard a week before the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk, the Russians transferred most of their SAMs from Kursk area to Crimea. also the area is sparsely garrisoned by Russian conscripts and Rosgvardia. Russians conscrupts and Rosgvardia are poorly motivated plus zero combat experience. that is why when they are faced with a full brigade of Ukrainian battle hardened , well trained, well motivated and well armed troops with full air and artillery support and Ukrainian air superiority in the area due to the SAM withdrawal and Russian air force nowhere to be found easilly took 15 kilometers in 24 hrs. The Ukrainians took more Russian terrritory than the Russians took in the first two months of the northern Kharkov offensive this year. Yep that is why the Russians broke and fled. many surrendered, and abandoned their heavy weapons and tanks. for donation to the Ukrainian army haha. The Ukrainians already captured the gas pumping station main one in Kurks and is 5 kilomeers away from the Kursk nuke power plant. and the Ukrainians are 7 hours away by car to Moscow hhha.
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  22. I heard that the going black market Moscow Rate for the ruble is 400 rubles to 1 USD. if you want to buy USD , however if you sell USD its 50 rubles to 1 USD hahah. very amusing. Here in Vancouver Canada , most currency exchange shops do not offer the russian ruble and the few that do have horrible exchange rate, so in those shops, when selling the ruble the rate is 1 CAD = 133 Russian rubles, when buying Rubles its 1 CAD = 40 rubles LOL.
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  23. I think it ends just like 1917 ended the Czar Nicholas II, yah Putin may be rumored to be in his ural mountains bunker. but if Moscow goes against him, his power is kaput. Yah Putin is quite smart and machiavellian, but his ego was his downfall, yah he planned a lot alright and Ukraine was supposed to be his crowning achievement but unfortuantely for him his gamble failed, and failed badly and now he will pay and he will take down Russia with him. Future Russians will remember Putin and wish he was never born. his name will be synonymous with hitler and czar nicholas II both failures. and bad leaders.
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  24. Yah I also had the same situation in guangzhou China in the mid 90s oh how they loved the USD, or the Hong Kong dollar, the Chinese yuan was crap. I remember they did not use coins, instead Chinese yuan cents were in small mini bills, and they were crappy in quality and fell apart easilly. heck the Chinese yuan bills back then had really poor quality, the bills were like rags.
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  25. well in context, the Russians during the years leading up to the 1917 revolution also lived a lower living standard than their European counterparts at the time. Took them 3 years of war and a decade of humiliation(since their defeat in the 1904-1905 Russo Japanese war) and food shortages and a collapsing economy and ongoing corruption and incompetence from the Czarist gov to break them and make them go into revolution mode. The same will happen with Putin's Russia, lots of parallels with Putin's Russia , and Czar Nicholas II Russia. .
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  26. Yep its going to hit so hard, not only will they not know what hit them the Russians but they will really be unprepared like no central gov to deal with the problem.
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  27. geopolitical and economic go hand in hand. As Clausewitz said paraphrasing through James Coburn in Cross of Iron(not said by him), War is continuation of state policy by other means.
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  28. well I think there will be a recession during trump's term and a consitutional crisis probably after the 2026 mid term elections. and massive anti trump street protests in the USA, I will personally go to DC to see Trump getting removed from power.
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  29.  @pasiheinoja4569  whatever Ivan bot
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  30. hahah Im still a big board wargame fan and player to this day, first started playing board wargames in 1980 with my first played games being Bundeswehr and Titan strike by SPI. Still continue to play and collect board wargames to this day. and I have even graduated to playtesting board wargames for Decision games board wargame magazine like strategy & tactics, modern war and world at war and various independent board wargame designers like Ben Madison, heck even wrote historical articles for those magzines and reviews on paper wars.as well as got a board wargame called Storm over Taierzhuang 1938 published for Against the Odds magazne.
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  31. Russia currently is in a similar situation to the Russian empire before the 1917 Russian civil war. 40 percent of its budget is now geared to military spending. and its shifting 6 percent and more of its economy to war. its in a bloody stalemate not winning in Ukraine. suffering horrendous casualties and equipment losses., more repression of free speech from the state. Rising food prices. It will get worse in the next few years culminating in Russia becoming more repressive suffering from venezuela style hyperinflation, suffering from battlefield defeats and even more significant casualties. This will trigger widespread protests in Russian cities , and lead to more Russian gov repression, and the match that causes the fire will be simliar to the start of the Russian civil war in 1917, Russian security forces massacre Russian civilian protesters which leads to a general mutiny in the Russian army, As the Russian gov collapses so does the collapse of the command and control of the Russian army in Ukraine, which is taken advantage of by the Ukrainian army who launches major offensives which collapses the Russian army in Ukraine and Ukraine regains a lot of its lost territory in the offensives. The end of the Ukraine war ends not with a negotiation but with the Russian army in Ukraine collapsing in mass surrenders and desertions with their officers abandoning their troops just like in the end of the 1st Chechen war. There is no Russian gov to negotiate with . The upcoming Russian civil war which I think starts in 2027(110 years from the start of the last one) wil be very bloody. and also have a lot of factions. I think the west and China will meddle in the war and support their proxies. However just line in the 1917 to 1922 civil war which had the Reds(communists) vs. the whites(anti communists), this civil war it will be Freedom/Liberty and the letter L who are supported by the west and Ukraine vs. the Nationalists/Patriots and the letter Z supported by China. With the collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine, the Russians left massive amounts of weapons and military equipment , many of which will be given to the Russian Freedom Legion which I think will be massively expanded into a real army(from 2 current battalions as of April 2024). with recruits from the surrendered Russian soldiers in Ukraine and volunteers from Russia itself along with volunteers from Ukraine and other countries. and aided by support from the west. The other side is like the whites during the 1917 Russian civil war, factionalized with an assortment of Russian nationalist movements and regional militias but with the uniting goal of being opposed to liberal democratic Russia that is influenced by the west. China supports it with funds and weapons. The Freedom of Russia army is more coordinated and united with support from the west plus a head start in former Russian army weapons and equipment and large appeal from the Russian people. The Patriots also have a significant influence from the Russian people and initially have a bit larger recruit base but is poorly coordinated but support heavilly by China, Iran, North Korea etc. The Russian civil war is bloody and also affects its neighbours as millions of Russian refugees cross into their countries with teh largest European refugee crisis since end of WW2. Also well armed Russian bandits raid into their neighbours and also become pirates, the Russian navy has practically devolved into a Pirate navy hijacking shipping in the black caspain and Baltic seas .
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  32. yah reminds me of the pizza restos and convenience stores in the main druggie area of Vancouver main and hastings selling drugs under the counter .
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  33. they arent arresting her since she is the only good Russian economist in power, you arrest her you leave idiots running the Russian economy, which will collapse faster
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  34. now looks like most of the EU and Canada will have to stick it alone supporting Ukraine. vs. Russia, Russia is a threat to Europe and the USA but its been well weakened by 3 years of war in Ukraine. Yes the loss of US aid will hurt bad, but Ukraine will get over it when the rest of NATO steps up its support for Ukraine. and the war goes on. and we in Canada and Americans will have to deal with this ahole in the white house called Trump and his real boss Elon Musk.
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  35. student and work visas for Indians , well we have a problem with that in Canada since a lot of Indian run colleges are frauds.
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  36. a source told me that the black market rate for the Russian ruble for a USD buy in Moscow is 400 Rubles to 1 USD, however if you sell your USD its 1 USD =50 rubles hahahaah hilarious.
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  37. and if you are saying the harder they fall , well Russia has lost a bit more more men and equpment in this Ukraine war in 2.5 years than all the wars combined Russia has fought from 1946 to 2021. and if they lose the Ukraine war with those kinds of losses it will be a MONUMENTAL FALL. it will be make the fall of the USSR in 1991 look like a kumbaya get together. and more like 1917. also no support from the west this time which saved the Yeltsin gov in 96 after the Russsian defeat in the first chechen war and also cushioned the fall of the USSR in 91.
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  38. as I said before the longer Russia is in this war the more its economy, will break leading to disruption of Russian society leading to political change. I think the pivotal event will be Biden winning the US elections of 2024(this year), made even worse by a possible demo sweep of the Congress and senate. With this the American will significantly raise the aid to Ukraine in 2025 and every year after that making it very difficult for the Russians to conduct the war in ukraine. In fact the Russian minister of econmics stated that the Russian economy cannot indefinitely support the war in Ukraine as the war in Ukraine is costing the Russians 400 million USD(official estimates) per day just to maintain the Russian army in Ukraine and not counting manufacturing costs, buying parts for weapons and whole weapons systems etc. The Russians have put 30 percent of their 2024 budget to prosecuting the war in Ukraine. and as the war drags on, the Russians will probably devote a higher percentage in the next years. This will have a very bad impact on Russian infrastructure, as the money and personel dedicated to maintaining it, goes to the war in Ukraine, the already mediocre Russian infrastructure starts breaking down bad. That is why you are seeing poorly made dams collapse, and Russian heating systems fail during winter killing hundreds of Russians. it will get worse. Also Russian national wealth fund is set to run out in 2025, in fact with the Russian economy being put on war mode, producing more military supplies than civlian goods, Russia cannot anymore support its currency as its forced to print more rubles. and this leads to hyperinflation with that a massive rise in the price of essentials like food and gasoline. Also analysts estimate the Russian cold war stocks of tanks and APCs are estimate to run out by late 2025 and into 2026. This will cut the production and refurbishment of tanks and APCs by two thirds. The Russian industry itself cannot produce enough tanks and APCs to keep up with the destruction of tanks and APCs in the Ukrainian battlefield. and it will get much worse as US and allied aid to Ukraine ramps up in the next few years. The Russians will be forced to spend even more money probably buying maybe North Korean tanks (which are bad copies of Soviet cold war designs), the Russians are so desperate enough in the past that they bought millions of poor quality North korean artillery ammo as the Russian artillery expenditure is so rapid , local Russian production cannot keep up. Heck the Russians even bought a good number of poor quality North Korean surface to surface missles (NK SCUDS). Again poor north Korean copies of Soviet cold war weapons. Russia is that desperate these days. and it will get worse. Also the Russians since 2023 had started fielding 70 year old T-55s and T-62s and WW2 artillery in large numbers in Ukraine. The last time the Russians fielded T-55s in large numbers was during the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia. Heck a number of the Russian T-55s in Ukraine are so old they served in the Soviet army during the Hungarian revolution of 1956. Also despite the Ukrainians having shortages in artillery ammo and some essential weapons systems due to lack of US aid for half a year, are still holding the line strong. The Russians are only able to make small gains of territory but at the cost of massive amounts of casualties and loss of tanks and APCs. The Russians are able to blow holes in Ukrainian lines but not able to exploit them and collapse the whole Ukrainian line. The Ukrainian are able to retreat back a short distance and establish a new line of defense. and the Ukrainians are also counterattacking hard to plug up lines and repel Russian attacks. All this very much is a sign of weakness for the Russians that the war is really not going well for them. Only a matter of time that the Russian gov economy and political stability will break from all this and 1917 2.0, will happen again. and this will be probably the most important event in the 21st century as Russia turns into a massive failed state, a massive version of Syria/Somalia. with massive geopolitical implications.
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  39. my take on how Russia loses this war, Kamala Harris wins Nov 2024, even better if Congress and senate are controlled by the dems. and the USA massively ups aid to Ukraine in 2025. a Kamala Harris win alone in Nov 2024 wil cause a massive Political tsunami in Russia, the Russian elites know the Russian economy cant support another 4 years of war, and the Russians are scraping the bottom of the barrell in terms of refurbishing Soviet stocks of tanks and APCs, even better if the Ukrainians score a major victory ont he battlefield. in 2025 I can see the Russian elites and disgruntled military officers start organizing to chuck Putin out of a window and get a new regime going which I think happens in 2025 or in 2026. WIth a new regime , negotiations occur and the Russians totally withdraw from Ukraine including crimea, in exchange all sanctions lifted, all Russian assets unfrozen in Western banks, no war crimes trials for Russian leaders. , normalization of relations with the west. a formal peace treaty recognizing borders. That is how the war ends with a Kamala harris win in 2024.
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  40. I think in the Trump presidency USA becomes more isolationist , but does not abandon the world stage entirely, its focus now is on China. and getting better relations with Russia. to play it vs. China. and I think despite all the bluster, Xinping does not invade Taiwan, probably does more intimidation excercises and aggressive rhetoric but nothing much. As for Ukraine, well. I think USA will stop all aid to UKraine including the ones promised but not sent. not surprised if Biden in his final act before the inaguration sends all the aid and maybe more. Then Zelensky will have to play it very very carefully , Ukraine cannot afford to be incompetent and stupid vs. Russia in the next 4 years. So UKraine will have to mobilize its young population train and source its weapons wherever and whenever it can. Zelensky cannot afford to play politics here or it will be disastrous for him. Im pretty sure Trump cant just end the war with one phone call. but he can maybe bring on a direct negotiation between Putin and Zelensky. possibly ending the war mid 2025. in a Korean war style armistice. with Russia having the upper hand in negotiations.
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  41. I predict this 2024 USA electoins will be a surprise, I think Trump will get his ass kicked and might even lose with a landslide Kamala harris win , a win for the dems not seen since the 2008 elections where Obama won more than half the electoral votes. and I posit that the big dem win will be Texas which goes from red to blue in this election, since its senator Ted Cruz is very unpopular, and Texas becomes a swing state.
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  42. my view the longer the war goes the more destroyed the Russian economy is, yes the Russian economy is currently experiencing growth but its artificial gov spending for the war economy to support the war in Ukraine. The longer the war goes, more money for Russian infrastructure, more of the civlian economy will be converted to manufacture of military supplies and equipment to support the war in Ukraine. Supposedly a whopping 40 percent of the current Russian budget 2024 is being spent on the war on Ukraine. This is a long term disaster. and the Russian minister of economy has already stated that the Russian economy cannot handle this one indefinitely , there will be a turning point in the Russian economy starting with hyperinflation, rising prices of essentials such as food , gasoline etc. when the Russian economy starts collapsing. This will cause resentment in Russia towards the Russian gov, of course this will lead to more unrest and more Gov crackdowns on dissent. also add to that discontent in the Russian military on how the war is being run. esp. when Russia after a biden win this year 2024, and facing a tank and APC shortage due to their cold war stocks running out by late 2025 and their tank and APC production and refurbishments cannot keep up with losses on the battlefield coupled with Ukrainian major victories in the front. Made worse by incompetent corrupt uncaring and rigid Russian military and political leadership. Prigozhin's uprising in 2023 was only the first and he did it to address the incompetencies of Russian military command in Ukraine(among other things). I think a much bigger uprising will occur in the Russian military coupled with Russian civlian uprisings triggering a collapse of the Russian economy and then the Russian gov. and then collapse in the Russian military command. Like a domino this will be the start of the Russian revolution 2.0 then civil war. or Time of troubles 2.0(or 3.0 whichever you prefer). This will be much worse than the 90s which the Russian like to hanker back on. The Russians will wish the 90s was back to what is coming for Russia. The Russian civil war that is coming will be even more bloodier than the Ukraine war, it will be a massive geopolitical event like the 1917 to 1922 civil war and will probably draw international intervention( not surprised if UN peacekeeping troops are deployed in Russia), millions of Russian refugees and Russian dead. and Russia breaking up. It will be a geopolitical great game between USA and China as they support their proxies. Russia will become the largest failed state in the world. A massive version of Syria/Somalia. The new Russia that will come out of the mess will probably be significantly smaller with new nations being born. I posit the largest of these will be the Russian federation with Moscow as its capital will one day decades after the civil war liberal and democratic finally thown down its Soviet shackles will join the EU and NATO. When will this happen, ....my estimates, analysts say the Russian economy will run out of steam by 2025, Russian cold war stocks of tanks and APCs will run out by late 2025. So I am positing it occurs around 2027. the 110th anniversery of the 1917 revolution.
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  43. the Russians are thinking they can sell the military products they produced during the war to get their money back after the war. Nope ...what is going to happen, the military products they produce will be used during the coming Russian civil war, some will probably be sold to the world black market or to criminal groups in European countries fuelling high crime rates.
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  44. Like Stalin , Putin is given a state funeral then the blame game and purges start of Putin's men. Putin and his men are blamed for the war and many other things.
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  45. yah cause the Russians are desperately trying to support and boost the Russian ruble. , well I can say, Russia waste more money, all it takes is a major geopolitical event like Prigozhin's coup to kaput the ruble . When Russia loses this war, Ruble is toast,
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  46. after reading the recent article in the New York Times about a Nepalese volunteer in the Russian army, Its massively insane to actually pay 5K USD to have yourself smuggled into Russia just to join the Russian army in Ukraine, since these dupes think they will get paid 2K USD a month and Russian citizenship...well what ended up happening to him, he was wounded got flown back to Russia for medical , and tried to pay smugglers to smuggle him out of Ukraine and Russia for 5K USD. they gyped him. Then he had to take a 15 hour taxi ride to the Nepalese embassy in Moscow for them to send him back to Nepal. Yep spend 10K USD, , got disabled and nothing else but back to Nepal unemployed.
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  47. my scenario: war goes on even with massive Trump pressure on Ukraine, EU and NATO countries esp. UK, Germany and France support Ukraine. US peace talks fail. Trump tries to pressure Ukraine's allies to stop supporting Ukraine with tariffs, sanctions etc. Which leads to a brutal trade war betwen Ukraine's allies and the USA . which leads to a global recession in 2026, Meanwhile USA removes sanctions on Russia(while Ukraine;s allies tighten sanctions on Russia) and even starts doing a free trade agreement with Russia. and Trump admin encourages US companies to invest back in Russia, with very few taking up the offer. Meanwhile. Due to the recession, and DOGE and Trump policies creating a lot of mess in the USA, USA voters turn sour on Trump, and Trump actively meddles in the US 2026 house and senate elections. which turns out to be a very poliitically divisive elections with accusations by both sides of voter fraud and intimidation. However the democrats sweep the House and senate which Trump does not accept the results and accuses the democrats of voters fraud and tries to annul the elections, this prompts massive street protests bigger than the BLM riots, where Trump defies the judiciary. and then declares martial law state of Emergency. In 2027 Trump is physically removed from power, and he and Musk either are arrested or they both flee to Russia, Vance is arrested for supporting illegal act of martial law and the new USA president is the democratic speaker of the house who forms a new interim US gov before the 2028 USA elections. the new USA gov immidietly reinstates all the sanctions on Russia, cancels all plans of free trade with Russian, removes all the sanctions and tariffs placed on Ukraine and its allies, and turns back the aid to Ukraine this time, the aid is massive. USA restores normal relations with its allies. Russia by this time 2027 still fighting the Ukraine war probably now controls about 30 to 40 percent percent of Ukraine having lost 2 million Casualties. However the Ukrainians are still fighting back hard, and have not lost their important cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa though all of hte Donbass has been captured by the Russians. The Russian economy was given a respite with a temporary lifting of USA sanctions in 2025 however due to a severe worldwide economic recession, oil prices crash. and Russian economy is dependent on high oil prices. This hits the Russian economy hard. The Return of USA sanctions with a vengeance is catastrophic to the Russian economy to the point of suffering an economic collapse in 2027. the new USA gov also goes after Russian oligarch assets in the USA and Ukraine allies follow suit. worldwide, Due to economc collapse Russia finds it very difficult to fight keep the war going, and with new USA support, Ukraine is able to launch new offensives which drives the Russians back. Jan 2025 lines. Russia goes into revolution in late 2027 nearly 110 years from the 1917 revolution. this time, a massacre of Russian civilians prompts widespread anti gov uprising, which paralyzes the Rusian gov. and new Ukrainian offensives collapse the Russian front in Ukraine. Russia goes into time of troubles 2.0 as Putin loses control of Russia.
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  48. true ...being Chinese from the Philippines, the Chinese are all about making a buck , very capitalistic business oriented. Yah the Chinese want to take back Taiwan not only for the land but to win their civil war which started in 1921 and has not ended yet since the KMT is still alive in Taiwan and protected by the USA. They want to get rid of the KMT and any opposition to the CCP once and for all. As for making a buck, the CCP are very much enemies of the KMT in Taiwan and the Taiwan independence parties. much they have strong business relationships with each other, all of them are enemies but making a buck with each other. Same can be said with the China and USA relationship. Political and military rivals but deep and strong business relationships. USA and EU are China's best business partners and customers but also China's main political and military rivals. As for the Russian Chinese relationship. They never liked each other, heck then almost went to war in 1969 with the Sino Soviet border clashes and the USSR threatened war with China in 1979 if China besieged Hanoi . and still have some border issues. the Russians did not like the way the Chinese were pirating their military designs. and entry into their economy. However due to the Ukraine war and desperation of the Putin gov. China is making a buck out of the Russians , also China is making a buck out of the Ukrainians. by selling both sides drones, electronic equipment , parts, and not surprised if the Ukrainians are buying artillery ammo in the black market and Chinese artillery ammo is being sold there. Russia bought lots of artillery ammo from North Korea, and North Korea has long been a middle man for military arms sales for China. During the Iran Iraq war North Korea was a middle man to sell Chinese weapons to Iran which at the time had arms embargoes on it. Meanwhile the Chinese were selling weapons directly also to the Iraqis. Again the Chinese making a buck.
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  49.  @EconLessons  Yep and to add the Soviet army doctrinally of the cold war is not much different than that of WW2 Soviet army. The Russians since end of WW2 played up the great patriotic war as like a holy war, they constantly glorified it for the past 80 years. and Putin used this to his ends. and these WW2 style ideas will be a disaster to Russia economically , militarily and demographically: Economically despite the Russian GDP growing , its all gov spending geared to prosecuting the war in Ukraine. This is a disaster to the Russian economy in the long run. in fact analysts have predicted that by mid to late 2025 , the Russian economy will start to degrade, and when that happens , hyperinflation and economic depression is just around the corner and there are already signs that the Russian economy is buckling hard under the weight of the costs to support this war which is costing Russia 400 mil to 1 billion USD a day. The appointment of Budanov to replace shoigu as defense minister, Budanov is a economist who believes in centralizing the Russian economy, yep this moron is a big espouser on returning the Russian economy back to teh Soviet economy. Disaster. Also Budanov said he would cut costs and the budget of the Russian army which signals the Russian economy is in trouble. Military: Yep the war has cost the Russians 500K casualties and several thousand kaput tanks and APCs in 2 years and 3 months of war. and the war is still a bloody stalemate despite the Russians having 10X the GDP and military of Ukraine and 5X the population of Ukraine. Russians hold around 20 percent of Ukraine and cant really seem to expand from that. The current Kharkov offensive is turning out to be a disaster for the Russians with the Russians losing 1K casualties a day and the Russian commanding general of this offensive being General Lapin, who was fired in late 2022 for being the commander of Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine after the Ukrainian forces literally collapsed a bunch of Russian divisions under his command and took back a large chunk of Ukrainian territory. Yep they took back and reinstated a Russian moron general who might soon fall from a window if the latest Kharkov offensive turns out to be a disaster. Also as stated earlier Budanov the latest ministry of defense appointee told the Russian Duma during his inaguration that he intends to do budget cuts for the Russian army LOL. DISASTER. Shoigu was already throwing massive amoutns of weapons and money at the war but the Russian army was still failing now budget cuts hahahaahh Demographics: Well the war has costs lots of casualties for teh Russians and possibly 1 million casualties after the war is over and Russian population is actually in decline before the war with some of the worst life expectancies in Europe where the average Russian male has a life expectancy of 65 years. The European average is 80 years. This war will make things worse. and even much more worse a possible bloody civil war after the war is over.
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  50.  @CCRoselle  now its worse. Only the show piece cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg look good the rest blehhh
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  51. I dont believe in BS polls Alan LIchtman 13 keys to the white house, he has been right 90 percent on his USA presidential eelction predictions since 1984. He predicts a Harris win in 2024. and the polls have been mostly wrong in all USA presidential elections. Things can change. rapidly in a short time. I think there will be a massive surprise this elections which will blow away the pollings.
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  52. also yah the Russian soldiers may be paid 2 million rubles or 22K USD just as a sign up bonus to fight vs. the Ukrainians but when hyperinflation kicks in that 2 million Rubles may be worth what 2 USD. and the soldiers are paid in Rubles. You simply cannot save rubles these days so either you spend them fast or you buy USD Euro or any other stable currency and store them like in a safe in your house or some secret place since if you put them in the bank, the bank will alert the Russian gov and you may have your USD confiscated. and the banks will only sell you limited amounts of USD. so who to turn to...the Russian black market which Ive heard sells USD for like 400 Rubles to 1 USD. hahah. and if you buy rubles from them the rate is like 100 rubles 1 USD. Here is Vancouver Canada , most exchange stores dont even take Rubles , but those who do the rate is selling Rubles 200 Rubles = 1 CAD, buying Rubles 1 CAD = 40 rubles haha, and the exchange rate is 1 CAD = 76 rubles.
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  53.  @johnhough7738  LOL Laugh out loud
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  54. Post war, Ukrainian economy will boom with trillions of USD pouring into Ukraine to rebuild . Russia meanwhile suffers economnic depression, near collapse of economy, social and political unrest as the new Moscow regime tries to survive and stabilize Russia. The west supports the new Moscow regime to forestall a Russian civil war. After a period of instability I think the Russian fed is more or less intact with some of its territories in the Caucasus going independent . However the new Moscow gov and Russian military is really weak, the real power will be with teh oligarchs and their PMCs, its like the 90s all over again but on steroids. with the oligarchs on the driver's seat but this time back up by powerful PMCs. which become Russia's real military. Russia becomes a decentralized state similiar to China in the warlord era but without the fighting. The PMCs and oligarchs with western support cooperate more or less to rule Russia. the Moscow gov are just puppets of the oligarchs. PMCs big and small abound even political parties have their own PMCs, the Russian army becomes a joke. More like a police force. In the meantime millions of Russians flee to the west trying to escape economic depresssion, high crime rates etc. Heck you might even see the next refugee wave being composed of mostly Russians. coming to Canada in the next few years.
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  55. the Russian oligarch church is fake, its leader is a former KGB agent. and buddy of Putin.
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  56. not only taht the Russians are spending lots of money to repair and refurbish their stored Russian weapons since many dont work, they have been maintained and stored badly many Russian tanks and APCs are unrepairable and used for spare parts.
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  57. yep and the PLA is the biggest mega corporation in China owning lots of different companies from making weapons to smart phones to dollar store nick knacks. Yep despite reports the PLA corporations has been broken up I dont believe it.
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  58. I predict after the war is over, the Russian economy will experience massive Zimbabwe style hyperinflation, in fact the USD Euro and other stable economies will be accepted even crypto will be accepted over the Russian ruble .
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  59. There are already a bunch of board wargames published on the current war In Ukraine and the 2014 Ukraine war. and for future reference also a bunch of wargames on a future Russian civil war.
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  60. Future Russians decades will look back to all these and ask how the Russians of 2024 esp. the older generations be so STUPID, to have supported a shit like Putin and caused the bloody Russian civil war. Putin's legacy will be shit. He will be compared by future Russians to hitler and Czar Nicholas II. Some future deluded Russians might try to rehabilitate his name but there will be streets named after him(the one in Grozny will be renamed after Kadyrov is gone and Chechnya becomes an independent state), no monuments to his name, his legacy is shit, his wealth probably stolen by his buddies, his family may be killed(like the familiy of Czar nicholas II). Future Russians will revile his name. Putin will be much studied by future and current historians. Ukraine on the other hand , will be rebuilt with trillions of USD in investments from the west. Economy will boom, it will be accepted into the EU and NATO. Ukraine will be used as a main forward base by the USA and her allies to support their proxies in the coming Russian civil war. So even more investments on the Ukrainian economy. Zelensky will be lauded as one of the greatest leaders of the 21st century, there will be streets towns, monuments to his name. He will be compared to Churchill. He will be lauded as a hero. Heck not surprised if Russians actually wished that Zelensky was there leader instead of Putin. Zelensky will be much studied by future and current historians.
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  61. the loss of the first chechen war was pretty bad, the Russian generals abandoned their own men, and the Russian soldiers in Chechnya had to hitchhike or beg for train fares back to Russia. HOwever, the Yeltsin gov did not collapse due to heavy western aid and support to Russia at the time and trade with Russia. however the embarassing defeat paved the way for Putin to take over a few years later.
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  62.  @EconLessons  the pegged price is so amusing at 1 USD = 88 Russian rubles. when a few days ago Russian banks were offering buying USD at 200 russian rubles to 1 USD. before Russian gov pressure made them change it back to 90 Russian rubles to 1 USD. haha Buying Rubles was still 1 USD = 50 rubles haha
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  63. well I hear early in this war in 2022 that Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was caused partly by his enforced isolation due to covid fears(cabin fever) and steroids and other medications to treat his parkinsons and rumored cancer. All this worked on his ego which caused him to give the go ahead for the invasion.
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  64. so my scenario here is that you have a Trump admin who will probably do all it says during the presidential campaign like massive rise in tariffs, withdrawal from NATO, USA effectively becomes isolationist. the rest of NATO EU step up in a dramatic way and replace USA aid to Ukraine as peace talks break down. with UK and French troops deploying to Ukraine HOwever USA ups its oil drilling massively bringing down world oil prices, which strongly impacts the RUssian economy. Russia does not do war with NATO even with USA withdrawal and Trump stating the RUssians can do whatever it wants with NATO, Russians do not attack NATO countries since its military is near total committed to Ukraine and does not have enough forces to take on NATO even without USA out of the organization. War goes on , this time, Ukraine is not constrained anymore by the Americans, a lot more Ukrainian bombing of Russian oil infrastructure ammo dumps etc. hits the Russians hard. The war goes on, the Russians step up yes probalby gain more land at thte same rate but getting massive casualties ,
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  65. yah or you could be like Charlie Bronson become a brawler underground bare knuckle fighter make good money in cash only to have it squandered by your manager James Coburn.
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  66. also depends on what happens in the EU. without USA aid and USA dallying on its NATO membership and worrying statements from Trump and EU fears of Russian aggression on NATO members, I think the rest of NATO will break from the USA. and this time with urgency rearming and covering up the USA aid to Ukraine, USA stops sending aid to Ukraine, the rest of EU/NATO steps up dramatically. Yes USA may withdraw from NATO lifts all the sanctions on Russia, but the EU NATO and allies do not comply with the USA and breaks from it. and steps up aid to Ukraine. This time, there is a sense of urgency and then you dont have delayed aid anymore from NATO members since the USA is blocking them politically, thsi time the pro Ukraine NATO members do not listen to the USA then massively ups the aid to Ukraine. Russia threatens war but its army is so much stuck in Ukraine cant even do much , but do sabre rattling, France UK, send troops to Ukraine. and lift all the restrictions on their weapons use on Russian soil. France and UK probably threaten the Russians too of war if nukes are used. the French and UK may have much smaller stockpiles than the Russians but they will mostly work, the Russian nukes are very much in question , my estimate 75 percent of it will not work.
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  67. if Putin did not invade Ukraine, Putin would have been known in Russian history as the best post soviet pres. however due to his ego and probably all those steroids and drugs he was taking for his illnesses and fear of covid plus lockdowns, made him loopy. and caused him to make very stupid decisions like invading Ukraine.
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  68. I find it very amusing here in Vancouver Canada currency exchanges, most of them do not accept the Russian ruble those that do the exchange rate is when selling the Russian ruble to CAD the exchange rate is 150 Russian Rubles to 1 CAD(official exchange rate is 1 CAD -= 70 Russian Rubles) when buying Russian rubles its 1 CAD to 50 Russian rubles haha. what a joke,
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  69. you mean Russian ruble will be future weimar toilet paper money
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  70. also getting popular in Russia is the buying of USD backed Stable coins like USDC and USDT from exchanges like Binance. Yep Russians know the Ruble is shit and headed for hyperinflation so buying Crypto Stable coins is the way to go since buying USD from banks suck and limited, and buying USD from the black market too expensive. also Russian banks allow fiat cashed out from crypto exchanges however I do think the people probably have to cash out in limited amounts so their accounts dont get flag and reported to the Russian gov.
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  71.  @EconLessons  Yep its that bad, even in the cold war 70s and 80s, the T-55 was designated as a Soviet donation tank to their third world clients , in the Soviet army it was kept in storage to be given only to Soviet Category C units, those are the units which are only mobilized in desperation when the front line Category A and B units are badly depleted or destroyed. So the Russians fielding the T-55 is an act of desperation. I think they would have fielded the T-34 but the Soviets and Russians scrapped them all or sent them to their clients in the cold war. The ones they bring out during every may day parades were actually imported from Vietnam!!!!
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  72. I predict after this war is over, Russia will go back to the 90s on steroids. Russian oligarchs backed up by PMCs will rule Russia through their puppet gov. officials, the Russian army will be a joke a shell of its formal self. the real miltiary power of Russia will be the PMCs. So Imagine a Russia with a Russian ruble in hyperinflation, the Russian currency has unofficially dollarized since no one accepts the Russian ruble. and would rather accept USD, EUros, crypto gold and even barter trade. Russia becomes a failed narco state. with a weak corrupt as hell Moscow gov and Russian military and Oligarchs and criminal gangs monopolize the economy and resources of Russia and they use their PMCs and influence in the Russian gov to impose their will. Russia becomes like an African nation as the name of the game is resource extraction to export to other countries along with the USA and China treating Russia as the new great game, vying for influence in the country for its resources. Also Russia the narco state, due to a much weaker Russia gov control, criminal gangs both foreign and domestic run amuck, the country becomes a source for smuggling of all kinds esp. military grade weapons and narcotics to the west. heck not surpirsed if they start growing opium , and other narcotics sources, as well as industrial scale manufacture and processing of narcotics for sale in the west. Not even surprised if you have piracy as criminal gangs use Russian ports as bases for piracy in the Baltic , North Atlantic , Caspian seas. Yep Russia in time of troubles 2.0 will look like an African country, maybe like the Democratic Republic of Congo.
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  73. yah DOGE and PEPE memecoins become more valuable than the Russian ruble its that bad,
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  74. I think many more Russians will be leaving Russia in teh next decade or so. esp., after teh war is over. Things will get worse in Russia.
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  75.  @MS-ii1sv  /Yah China and Russia improved a lot. then again the current gov is making mistakes that might erase all their gains.
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  76. who would have thunk the USA shot itself in the head and joined the Axis of evil.
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  77. yah Crimea is better off with Ukraine and part of the EU. HOwever I think in the future Crimea will probablyi still be militarized, since as I said before Russia is going to go into civil war after Putin is gone and Russia has lost this war, Im not surprised if the Russian civil war warlords start doing somalia style piracy in teh black sea to supplement their income since there is no central gov to control their guys. Not surprised in a Russia in civil war, NATO will have to respond to Russian piracy of shipping in the Black sea with some sort of intervention, and Crimea will be used as a forward NATO base.to handle things in Southern Russia and the Black sea. Also Crimea might have to deal with lots of Russian refugees trying to escape from a Russia in civil war. Yah back in the 80s you had the Vietnamese doing that to escape from a communist Vietnam, the new boat people of the 21st century might be the Russians.
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  78. not surprised if a future Russian economy becomes dollarized, like Ruble is considered monopoly money where Russians would rather trade in Pepe crypto than the Ruble.
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  79. yah I remember in the 70s and 80s the world media esp. the communist bloc propoganda was harping all about the fall of the USA and capitalism and western democracy due to victory of the USSR and decadence in the west. Nope...USA and western democracies won the cold war USSR collapsed and broke up in 1990 , China has graduated from a agrarian Maoist communist state to a Authoritarian one party capitalist state who still does lip service of being communist. Russia has evolved from a one party communist state being hte successor state of the USSR to a multi party authoritarian capitalist state(reminds me of the third world capitalist American aligned dictatorships of the cold war era like Marcos Philippines, Somoza Nicaragua and Pinochet Chile etc. ) where one man has been dictator and president for life since 2000.
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  80. I posit due to trump's policies and trade wars with USA allies will induce a recession which causes a crash in worlwide oil prices hitting the Russian economy very hard and starts the real collapse of the Russian economy.
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  81. not only that one all this woke nonsense really damaged the chances of Kamala to win, also interesting that 45 percent of California voted for Trump , USA cities experiencing high crime rates due to police being defunded , bail reform which criminals only have to pay 10 percent of the bail. let out to do more crime, also police not enforcing the law , yep a lot of the people who voted for trump were US business owners that are being affected by all this and more.
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  82.  @nattygsbord  in this case the Russian gov is spending the lifeblood of the country just to keep a ahole like Puitn in power and not out of a window.
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  83.  @nattygsbord  Yep and Russia's idiotic actions during this war will make things worse after the war is over.
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  84.  @marcbjorg4823  you mean 300K dead Russians 300K wounded Russians 100K dead UkraInians. 300K wounded Ukrainians. who is winning???
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  85. its going to get worse in Russia, after the Ukraine war is over, Russia is probably going into civil war. as they did in 1917 when your grandparents left. Yep you have economic collapse coupled with a lost war, coupled with many PMCs(private military companies) being formed by oligarchs, politicos and regional governors. and the fact that Russia is held together by one guy called Putin and his inner circle. Putin does not have anyone to take over from him who is as capable as he is in keeping Russia together. Very simliar to the situation in 1917.
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  86. its perfect karma if in 2027 Trump and Putin are both deposed from power. both due to economic reasons.
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  87. Im thinking more like 1917 2.0 will happen to the Russian Fed in the next few years. The Russians are not fighting for their motherland and survival but for the survival of one ahole called Putin and his regime.
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  88.  @slippingsnake  haha
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  89.  @EconLessons  loved SPI however the majority of my games were from Avalon Hill. and yah SPI was massive but It was hard to get them outside the USA, I used to live in Manila , Philippines in the 70s to the early 90s and got my board wargames from Japan, Hong Kong and locally and at the time Avalon Hill was jsut all over the place like you can buy them in Hong Kong and Japnaese department stores while SPI games were rare. My first board wargame that I collected was Samurai from Avalon hill bought from a Daimaru dept store in Osaka Japan. The first hex CRT game I collected was Operation Konrad designed by Perry Moore published by Close Simulations bought from a Hong Kong book store in Kowloon back in 85.
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  90. I dont think russia has a long term economic plan its just trying to survive this war, I predict after the war is over, Russian economy will crash, and Russia might even break up. and then you will see multiple seperate economies rise from the Russian federation.
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  91. in vancouver Canada these days, most exchanges dont even accept RUR(Russian ruble) and the few who do have crazy exchange rates . I know one exchange ini Gas town that will buy RUR at 130 to 1 CAD(the official exchange rate is 76 RUR to 1 CAD), however if you want to buy RUR its 1 CAD to 40 rubles hahaha, so they want to get rid of their rubles.
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  92.  @EconLessons  also in a real prison or he ends up like Epstein.
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  93. my personal view the chances of a collapse will increase when Biden wins this yeasr and esp. when the dems sweep congress and senate. This will cause a political tsunami in the Kremlin. and I think war will end in 2025 probably mid to late 2025. The Russian elites cut their losses , like stalin , Putin dies of "natural causes" , in reality a palace coup occurs. and you have negotiation to end the war. and like the Korean war which ended a few months after the death of Stalin in 1953, the war ends a few months after the death of Putin with the new Russian gov ordering the withdrawal from all of Ukraine, in exchange there is a formal peace treaty, liting of all sanctions, normalization of relations with the west, all frozen Russian money in western banks are unfrozen, no war crimes trials or ICC arrest warrants for Russian leaders.
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  94. Trump musk and his maga ahole buddies have all been paid for with Russian oligarch money.
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  95. my view is that when Biden wins this year 2024 and the dems sweep the house and senate, this will be the beginning of the end for the Russian war effort in Ukraine and later lead to a Russsian civil war. Yes Russia will be reformatted but it will have to undergo 1917 2.0 again. it will have to undergo lots of bloodshed and national humiliation before rising up to a new form. I think the war in Ukraine will end when Russia goes into civil war in 2027 , which causes the collapse of not only the Russian gov but also the economy and the Russian army in Ukraine. The Ukrs will take advantage of this and launch major offensives to collapse the Russian army in Ukraine which undergoes a rapid collapse as whole units dissolve in surrender and mutinies and desertion . Something on a scale not seen since the disintegration of teh Iraqi army in Kuwait during Desert storm 1991.
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  96.  @EconLessons well I believe in Alan LIchtman's 13 keys . So far it says Biden will win but well you never knows its been right 99 percent of the time since 1980
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  97. if you want to see a movie that shows a real Russia, its the first part of the movie Babylon AD(with Vin diesel)....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mTSyz3x-go
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  98. well either way if Ukraine loses this war, Ukraine wins later, after Putin dies and Russian economy collapses and Russia goes into civil war. Ukraine will regain its lost territories
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  99. even if this war ends in a draw and a trumpo negotiated armistice. Putin's prestige is very much damaged in the eyes of the Russian people and elites. Putin cannot spin this war as a victory. I think this war will lead to the break up of the Russian federation within the next decade. or less. and Russia becoming the largest failed state in the world. becoming a great game of influence between the USA China and Turkey. The break up of Russia will become the largest geopolitical mess in the 2030s. Ukraine will break all agreements an retake all its lost territories plus also annex more Russian ones. and this will be mostly disregarded. and the Ukrainians will be given carte blanche to do so by the USA and EU. Not surpirsed if NATO, Chinese and UN troops get deployed in Russia , something not seen since the 1917 to 1922 Russian civil war. Ukraine will be the graveyard of the Russian federation.
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  100.  @Notrusbot  and you are a russian bot haha
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  101. yah USA trumpo wants Canada and Panama annexed, very amusing highly doubt it he will be able to do that in fact, Congress and senate wont even ratify that one despite Rep majorities, and the rep party is having their own civil wars right now. Heck trumpos deportation policies will probably be much opposed even by governors of blue states. So trump may bluster a lot of crap but as a pres he wont get anything done. Americans voted for shit , time to eat a big shit sandwhich
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  102. @volkerr. disagree I think things are going to get a lot worse, people think Biden was horrible no he was not , USA was still a lot sane under Biden
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  103. @ well hopefully or something worse happens due to the trump presidency. we shall see.
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  104. as they say no pain no gain, or you gotta hit rock bottom first before you go up. Russia went thru a number of these in their history, time of troubles, Russian civil war, break up of the USSR etc. and now I think there will be a new time of troubles 2.0 for Russia in the future.
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  105. I hate trump but well we gotta live with the choices the US voters made roll with it make a negative into a positive.
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  106.  @Princip666  and then you woke up in reality hahahaah
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  107. Yes its collapsing but its being supported by heavy gov subsidies geared towards the military, yep 40 percent of the Russian budget for 2024 is going towards the war in Ukraine, in fact 95 percent of the standing Russian army and air force and deployed towards the Ukraine war. That is why they dont have much of any defenses in Russia , that is why the Ukrainians are able to make big raids into Russian territory and attack oil refiniries and military factories deep inside Russia without the Russians able to stop them. and that is why the Russians want to recruit another 150K fertilizer for the war. Also the Russian security forces are busy trying to suppress the Russian populace and many have been deployed to Ukraine to suppress the Ukrainians in occupied areas, heck many of the Russian security forces have been sent to the front since they are low in manpower. Russian economy is collapsing and so is their war effort.
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  108.  @EconLessons  that one too the isolation meds and probably his advisors telling him he is always right, probably made his regular brain go more mental. He probably relalizes what he has done was a gigantic mistake and is trying to get out, like DESPERATELY trying to get out. That is why whenever I see him on his interview rants these days , he looks like a guy who is desperate you can see it in his eyes and demeanor.
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  109. ts very realistic and I think its not only a economic collapse which leads to and happens at the same time as political instability , high crime rates due to hyperinflation, rising prices of goods vis a vis the collapse of the value of the Russian ruble compared to rate of incresae to Russian salaries. and it will get worse when the war ends. Here is my scenario , war ends, hundreds of thousands of Russian war veterans are demobilized to a Russia with hyperinflation, expensive food prices, Russian wages not keeping up with the inflation rate, high unemployment , political instability as Putin tries to strengthen his political control by purges and blaming Russian elites and oligarchs for the failings of the war, trying to outlaw and disband the many Russian PMCs private armies that have popped up in the war and keep on popping up working for Russian elites and oligarchs, high crime rates, criminal gangs popping up. So the Russian war veteran goes back to this. and what is his choice cant get a legitimate job and if he can the job can barely pay the bills and food, so he probably either joins Russian criminal gangs or PMCs which pay a lot better and are hiring new soldiers basically as insurance vs. Putin when he comes for them. Not surrpised if a lot quit from the Russian army to join Russian gangs and PMCs. Lots of weapons floating around. Russian veterans, citizens elites all angry and blaming Putin for their problems and all Putin can do is repress more. I think in this scenario just takes an incident to trigger rebellion and civil war. and Not surprised if Ukraine will support anti Putin forces. Ukrainians already have a extensive network within Russia and it will be more extensive post war. Russia will go crazy several years after the war is over. something not seen since 1917. Russia essentially becomes Syria 2.0
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  110.  @j.p.ijsblok5304  and the NK troops cost the Russians a lot of money and also take away Russian resources. Its not a win its an embrassment
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  111. Xi Jinping is a Putin wannabe. Putin falls so will Jinping. I dont see a 4th term for Jinping. in fact I see possible house arrest and or early death by "natural causes" for Jinping.
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  112. damien omen also came from the blue we did not know where he came from but hell itself LOL
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  113. I predict the Russian economy after the war will implode however USA and EU will support the post Putin Moscow gov so it does not collapse , but the Russian economy will be on tenous ground and in depression mode for years after the war is over. Yep it will be bad, Latin america 90s style hyperinflation of the Russian ruble will probably unofficially (Russians are too proud to get rid of their currency) dollarize. heck it will be so bad, that the Russians will probably accept crypto over the Ruble, heck they will accept meme coins over the Russian ruble as payment LOL. This will cause a depressed Russian economy with not only hyperinflation but very high food and gasoline prices and will cause millions of Russians to refugee to the west, heck Im expecting tens of thousands of Russian refugees to asylum in Canada sometime in the late 2020s. the coming Russian diaspora of the late 2020s will dwarf the Soviet diaspora of the 90s.
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  114.  @EconLessons  yep I heard the going rate for a year in a Indian fraud college in Surrey Vancouver is 50K USD per year, they will passs you even if you dont study , the goal, get a work permit then a permanent residence so they can bring their village with them into Canada. Ive met Indian students who have a english literature course and cant even read or speak english. and 50 plus years old.
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  115. all the truth will come out when the Russian gov finally collapses and loses control. it will be ugly. when reality asserts itself, the collapse of Russia and civil war caused by the Ukrainian war will be very ugly and bad. Russia will become the largest failed state in the world. It will be a geopolitical headache in the coming decades. with Russia becoming a massive version of Syria. Time of Troubles 2.0. A geopolitical great games between USA and China for Russian resources and geopolitical location. It will be interesting that a future Russia in civil war without a central gov. has a seat int he security council of the UN. with veto powers hahaha. They might have to remove the Russia seat.
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  116.  @EconLessons  yah I still play board wargames to this day. still collect, play , playtest for other designers.
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  117. maybe if Trump wins. otherwise, Ukraine will fight on.
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  118.  @EconLessons  Yep Trump loves to backstab his so called allies at the moment. When he loses his so called allies will turn on him.
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  119. the chinese yuan has always been controlled by the Chinese gov. its not a free currency and wonder why its been 1 USD = 7 Yuan since the 90s. its quite amusing when you have all these economists and youtubers saying the Yuan will replace the dollar , yah maybe if the Chinese economy GDP surpasses that of the USA, I dont see that happening anytime soon. In fact lately the Chinese economy is in trouble lots of unemployment and failed businesses in China and the Chinese gov are just covering everything up , Chinese economic statistics from the Chinese gov all doctored, and you have a Chinese leader called Xi Jinping or Putin wannabe 2.0 who is trying to be like Putin and challenge the west. but the Chinese economy is very much dependent on exports esp. to the west. who are its best customers. Putin and Xi Xinping are very much linked together politically, if one falls the other also falls, I dont see Xi Jinping getting a third term, in fact, he will probably before or after his term ends, just fall out of a window or in CHina die of natural causes while under house arrest. There is a lot of opposition from the Chinese elites in the CCP, the so called Red Families who control the CCP and China. and the real oligarchs of China. They dont like how Xi Jinping has steered the focus of the Chinese gov from economic development to military confrontation with their best customer...the USA. Xi Jinping wants war with Taiwan with similiar reasons to Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Many of the Chinese PLA high command do not agree with Xi Jinping since they know they will lose the war with Taiwan and the USA. That is why you currently have a number of PLA generals suddenly getting replaced. Xi Jinping is trying to purge the PLA and replace the head guys of the PLA with yes men so he can get on with the invasion of Taiwan.
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  120. now here is my take on Ukraine, with a trump victory Ukraine is now faced with either fighting the Russians without USA help and well all know what happened when the USA did not send any aid to Ukraine and the Russians took a lot of territory , or swallowing their pride and negotiating with the Russians with a with Pro Putin Trump as middle man. Yah I can see UKraine having to accept a shitty peace deal with Ukraine having to give up all of the Donbass, a lot of the south, withdrawal from Kursk, and Zelensky stepping down and a new political party taking over the presidency with a neutralist Finland type stance which means no EU no NATO membership for Ukraine. and having to sign a formal peace treaty recognizing the annexation of all Ukrainian land. In return Ukraine gets hundreds of billions of USD from the USA EU and allies to rebuild Ukraine and of course guess who gets the contracts for the rebuild Trump Musk and their buddies. I can see peace in Ukraine in mid 2025 or in 2026, now since the ball is in Russia's court since orange garbage man is the USA pres. well now without USA aid , the longer this war goes the more Ukrainian land lost. And of course Orange ahole will now take credit for ending the war in Ukraine etc. fate is that shitty. but you have to make do with what you got.
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  121.  @marcpritchard3307  yah that was the official bank rate, the black market is double that.
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  122. I highly doubt Trump will be the victor in the USA elections. 13 keys by Alan Lichtman so far only 2 keys are false , you need 6 to be false for the incumbent pres. to lose the elections, Lichtman predicted almost all the USA presidential elections since 1980 correctly.
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  123. yah more like benedict arnold and quisling got reincarnated in TRUMP.
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