Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Jake Broe"
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Yah I remember those times in the 70s and 80s when the oil prices were high, the USSR was really building up its military and really threatening the USA and NATO. The Soviet army was much feared and there were war scares in the early to mid 80s with tense moments beetween NATO and the warsaw pact. However when oil prices collapsed in 1986, the Soviets were amping up their confrontation with the west to raise the oil prices, also the collapse in oil prices resulted in the end to the iran-Iraq war due to both sides fuelling their war with oil sales. The Iranians started doing attacks on Oil tankers in the Persian gulf stating they were doing it to cut off oil exports from Iraq but in truth the Iranians wanted high oil prices to fund its war, and was causing a crisis to raise oil prices , however it failed and oil prices still dropped Iran called it quits saying possible US entry into the war and high casualties and poor battlefield performance and growing Iraqi strength made it quit the war. The collapse in oil prices also led to the collapse of the Soviet economy. made worse by its really bad economic mismanagement, really bad corruption, poor command Soviet economy, very high military spending, and massive economic assistanace to its allies for little economic benefit in return. Yep even back then the Soviet economy was heavilly dependent on oil natural gas and other resource exports(even more so back then than now). , the Soviets really did not have a domestic market and did not export on a big scale its finished products to the west. in fact, its weapons manufactured on a massive scale back in the cold war, did not really make the Soviets money as they were given to allied nations rather than sold to them. Iranians in the 80s even worse they were almost totally dependent on oil exports to fund its war with Iraq. The Iraqis had USA and Saudi economic support to prop up its economy.
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bet you the Russian military leadership is micromanaged by Putin right down to the brigade level and the generals he appoints are incompetent ass kissers who dont have military experience on the ground. Putin does the strategy and gives it to the generals to do the tactics, and they are using a centralized inflexible soviet style command and control system which every command is followed to the letter no matter the conditions of the situation. also they are commanding what is tantamount to in cold war NATO designations of SOviet units as category C Russian military units which are the bottom of the barrell in the Russian army, like low morale, poorly trained, only functional as garrison troops but not fit for operations. probably 50 to 75 percent of their manpower and equipment allocations , with poor quality poor leadership officers , a poor logistical situation. and the Russians hope to blundgeon the Ukrainians to death with masses of these troops using WW1 style tactics. and the Russians are facing battle hardened Ukrainians well armed good logistics, high morale and motivation , OK trained, flexible NATO style command and control, in good defensive positions...that is why you get massacres of Russian troops like Vulhedar.
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Im voting for Biden. So Ive been voting since 1980, so my record is. Reagan, Reagan, Bush Sr. , Bush Sr. Clinton, Gore, Kerry, Mccain, Obama, Hilary, Biden. SO since 1980 Ive voted Rep: 5, Demo 6. And interestingly I consider myself center right in ideology.
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Yep and that clip of those buryat troops arguing with their chechen handlers about weapons and ammo shortages, this is a very good example of what happens when you throw massive amounts of troops in the fight more than your logistics can handle, and that is a very good reason why these troops are dying in massive numbers , its turkey shoot for the Ukrainians. a target rich environment of poor trained, armed and low morale no motivation Russian troops, there were fears and scares of 500K Russian troops being sent to the front, yah massive numbers but remember those troops need to be fed, trained supplied, armed, in order to fight properly otherwise they turn into a mob that is only good as a bullet absorbers. and the Ukrainians has LOTs of bullets. and Russians logistics is chaotic , and being heavilly disrupted by HIMARs strikes. Russian logistics can be argued to be worse now than they invaded in Feb 2022. Russia may have massive stocks of weapons and ammo but if they cant reach the Russian troops in the front due to poor logistics then those weapons are useless. not surprised the Ukrs to Russian kill ratio in the Donbass battles these days in like 5 to 10 Russian soldier for every one Ukrainian soldier casualtiy. also count Russian conscrupts and convicts are being forced to attack dug in , fortified Ukrainian positions many times in high ground positions, with claymore mines, minefields, fields of fire in relatively open ground. attacking mainly in the day since these convicts and conscrupts do not have night vision gear. this is a MASSACRE. that is why its takes a week to dislodge Ukrainian positions. Even with the Russians doing incremental attacks like advancing then digging in then doing it again later going from fire position to fire positions, the Ukrainains just rain accurate artillery fire on them. Worse later if the Ukrs get cluster munititions for theiir missles and artillery,
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this proves the Russians dont have the logistics and the men and armor to defeat the Ukrainians, in fact them very much limiting their goals to taking the Donbass means they know they made a grave very very bad mistake of invading Ukraine in the first place and now trying to end the war with taking the Donbass, annoucing they achieved their objectives and demanding peace with their terms to the Ukrainains, Ukrainians knows this and will not accept Russian peace terms, in fact, the only terms the Ukrainains will accept is the Russians to withdraw back to the pre war borders. If Putin does this his political career is Kaput and so is his life. He is trying to fight his way out in order to eke a win out of this fiasco he put himself in and survive but it is not working.The Russians will after conquering the donbass, fortify their winnings pour in more conscripts to go on the defensive. and then demand peace on their terms. of course the Ukrainians will not accept so the Russians will probably pressure them by missle and bombing terror attacks on ukr cities, possible limited punitive offensives designed to inflict Ukr losses and then do scorched earth on Ukr territory then withdraw(very bad idea for the Russians) waving around their nuke arsenal threatening to nuke everyone, ratchet up tensions between them and NATO by doing border incidents or even a naval incident to raise the price of oil. The Russians will try to wear down USA EU support for the Ukrainians which is hte most important since the Ukrainians are being kept afloat by massive financial and military support from the USA and the EU and NATO. and their allies. cutting this off weakens the Ukrainians. and the Russians hope USA and the EU can pressure Ukraine into accepting Russian peace terms. On the other hand, the USA and EU NATO know this and while support for Ukraine might lessen and slacken there will still be significant support from western Govs for Ukraine. and probably more sanctions vs. Russia. They know the main Russian weakness is their economy. Hurt the economy enough and it ends the war in Ukraine. Its all about the economy and in Russia's case, its the oil and gas prices high and needs to be collapsed. along with the EU as a whole ending their reliance on Russian energy exports. Russia is in a losing spiralling game here with their economy under siege from massive sanctions,and the question is how long can Russia last supporting their war in Ukraine.
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When Biden wins, it will cause a Tsunami in the halls of the Kremlin, yah Putin will probably double down but his elites will probably cut their losses kick him out and get a new guy in the Kremlin and end the war in Ukraine,
Im still confident when Biden wins this year 2024, the elites will remove Putin , blame everything on him, then end the war by mid to late 2025. With a complete withdrawal from Ukraine including Crimea. In return Russians get a formal peace treaty with Ukraine, lifting of all sanctions, normalization of relations with the west, all the frozen Russian money in western banks are unfrozen. No ICC court hunts vs. Russian war criminals.
In the aftermath: Ukraine economy booms with trillions of USD in reconstruction moneyi from the west surging into Ukraine, Ukraine gets EU and NATO memvbership with no response from the Russians, Belarus , Georgia replace their pro Russian govs with Pro EU ones.
Russia goes into political and economic chaos worse than the 90s with the west having to economicallyi support the new Moscow gov to keep the Russian economy from collapsing and staving off civil war. The new Russian gov is fragile and has weak authority esp. with lots of Russian PMCs running around the country. along with foreign meddling in its affairs. Russia becomes a great game between USA, China , Turkey. EU. for control of its natural resources. Its even made worse with a future crash in world oil prices. Russia does not go into full fledged civil war but parts of Russia either secede or go into some sort of autonomy from Moscow. Russia is beset from high crime ratres law lessness , hyperinflation etc. coupled with gov incompetence and corruption. millions of Russians flee to Europe and elsewhere.
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