Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Why Has Russia Not Collapsed Yet?" video.
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Actually current Russian oil prices are 72 USD per barrell. Now Russia has been selling at a discount to other countries esp. China and India at 20 percent or even rumored 30 percent discount. so the real price Russia is selling the oil at is around 50 to 57 USD, Russia needs the oil price to be 30 USD just to break even , pay for the operational costs to pump the oil from the ground. I predict due to the coming world economic recession depression, oil prices will crash to around 30 USD in 2024. This will be disastrous for the Russian economy. esp. if the Europeans and their allies cap Russian oil prices at 30 USD. and China and India will still want their 20 to 30 percent discounts. that is economic, now we go on to political, USA pres. elections are going to be in 2024. If a US pres. wins the elections will continue the Biden admin's policy on ukraine or even double down on it. well there goes your political part of the triangle. I think the war will still continue on into 2024. as Putin will see this as his last trump card to play. (haha see that analogy with Trump). Im not surprised Russia will really meddle into the US elections. even overtly doing so out of desperation. I think if Putin sees a US pres. winning who will continue with teh sanctions and aid to Ukraine then Putin will really get desperate in 2024, so you hae the collapse of the Political and Economic part of hte triangle in 2024. Putin will get super desperate by late 2024. and I am not surprised you will see an esclation of the conflict in late 2024 or in 2025. as Putin fights for regime survival. by this time. I predict, Russian economy is in near collapse massive unrests sweeping Russia even armed insurrection in parts of Russia. and political fractionalism. as his rivals come out and openly speak out against his policies in the war. and seeing the mobilizations not working, faced with a collapsing economy and widespread unrest, Putin will order the use of WMDs starting with mass use of chemical weapons on the battlefielid. then tactical nukes . Im not surprised if Putin gets deposed by his military if he orders the use of nukes. In this scenario I can see the war ending in 2025 with a military/oligarch junta taking over after deposing Putin and his inner circle. and calling for negotiations withdrawal from Ukraine. I preditct the withdrawal wil be messy and chaotic and not surprised if the Russian army in Ukraine turns into a disorganized mob. every man for himself. In the next years, Russia will really be unstable and a civil war of sorts will occur.
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