Comments by "Carey\x27s Corner" (@careylymanjones) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. "And the WEF is just a clown show." And Hitler looked like Charlie Chaplin. The fact that an organization sometimes looks stupid doesn't mean it can't be evil.
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  2. Argentina is rich in natural resources, has good riverine transport, and good demographics. If they can reach a stable monetary policy, they have real potential.
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  3. Peter never passes up an opportunity to take a dig at Trump and his supporters.
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  4. @A B El Salvador has already tried the NYC and Chicago way, and the result was horrific crime rates. The best way to deal with crime is to ask a liberal for advice - and do the exact opposite.
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  5. Single issues often don't have majority support, on their own, but when packaged with other issues may draw support from enough different factions to get a majority. They put them in one bill, to prevent one or more factions, having gotten what they wanted, from backing out of the deal. Everybody in the coalition is voting on everything with one vote.
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  6.  @jamesatherton1853  Forty years of families having only one child? And frequently aborting girls? What did you expect to happen to the population's age distribution?
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  7.  @Emanon...  Codes can be hacked, or hardware locks bypassed. Given time, Ukraine could have made them usable.
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  8.  @kindcanadian5825  Zero environmental regulations, yes. Cheap Chinese labor, not anymore. Chinese wages are way up from what they were in 2000. That's one of the reasons companies are moving away from China.
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  9. It takes 21 years to make a twenty year-old.
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  10.  @rylian21  For China to be a much smaller (and less powerful) country would be a wonderful thing, for the rest of the world.
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  11.  @mrgyani  Peter's thesis is that Globalization is living on borrowed time, because it is dependent on America, and America is tired of Globalization. And when America stops supporting Globalism, the countries that depend on it face economic disaster. India stayed out of the Globalist system, so when America goes full protectionist and calls its navy home, India will lose nothing, while China will lose everything. As an American, I think Peter is right about America's declining support for Globalism. In 7 of our last 8 Presidential elections, Americans voted for the less Globalist candidate. And in the last one, NEITHER candidate gave a damn about Globalism. China's days are numbered, and that number is getting smaller, by the day. India should be eternally thankful it did not climb out on the Globalist limb. It's about to break off.
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  12. Additionally, Plutonium won't work in a gun-assembled weapon. A Plutonium bomb requires the more complex implosion design. In WWII, we didn't even bother to test the design of the Hiroshima bomb. The Nagasaki bomb was an implosion device, and it WAS tested before being used. Weapons-grade Plutonium is easier to make, but a Plutonium bomb is harder to make. Weapons-grade U-235 is a pain to make, but once you have it, making a bomb is dead simple.
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  13. Short version is that prior to globalization, you traded within your empire, which was defined by what YOUR navy could protect. Trading beyond your navy's reach, or at least what armed merchantmen could reach, was an invitation to piracy, possibly state-supported piracy. As an example, the Spanish had problems with Brits raiding their treasure fleets from the Americas. The current Globalist system replaced the hodgepodge of imperial navies patrolling the seas with the US Navy, which was larger than everyone else's navies, combined. This let anyone trade with anyone for anything, and a lot of nations were able to industrialize by importing commodities they lacked. But America is tired of sending its ships abroad to protect and subsidize the profits of Chinese slavemasters. The only reason we started, in the first place, was to buy allies against the Soviets. The Soviets are 30 years gone. Globalism was never profitable for America, compared to what leveraging its market's power for domestic growth would have yielded. It is time, and past time, that America quit subsidizing its global competitors. When America stops being the policeman of the world's oceans, the First Island Chain will become Pirate Central. ALL of China's global maritime trade will be vulnerable to piracy, including state-supported piracy. None of China's neighbors would weep over Chinese losses to pirates. It's not difficult to see India charging "tolls" on China's Middle Eastern oil shipments. China would have little choice but to pay whatever India demanded, as it lacks the blue water ships to contest the Indian Ocean against the Indian Navy AND Air Force. ANY sea lane beyond the reach of anyone's navy will become a haven for piracy. The Strait of Malacca and the West Coast of Africa will see upsurges in piracy. Finally, some of the nations that were able to industrialize by importing needed materials will be unable to maintain their industries. They will de-industrialize and have to go back to agrarian economies that may not be able to feed their people
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  14. The French are ALWAYS revolting.
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  15. White Sea Coast, Baltic Sea Coast, Polish Gap, Bessarabian Gap (Moldova), Crimea, Caucasus Coastal gaps (gaps between the Caucasus Mts. and the Black Sea and Caspian Sea) Central Asian Corridor (runs from Afghanistan to Kazakhstan, between Tien-Shan Mts and Karakum Desert), and Tien-Altay Gap (between Tien-Shan and Altay-Shan Mts).
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  16.  @BountyFlamor  Cutting off oil to China. China gets 2/3 of its oil via tankers, from ports beyond the reach of its Navy. A couple of carrier battle groups, in the Gulf of Oman, and the Persian Gulf is off limits to Chinese tankers. A boatload of missiles on Tsushima Island, and Vladivostok, the other tanker terminal serving China, is cut off. With that much oil lost, it becomes doubtful that China can maintain industrial agriculture. They need the oil, not just for farm machinery and crop distribution, but for feedstocks to make pesticides and fertilizers. Expect major famine as a byproduct.
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  17. I am sick and tired of Peter's Trump-bashing. Unsubscribed.
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  18. Peter is the Voice of the Establishment. He's not going to say ANYTHING that could be considered a criticism of FJB's border non-policy.
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  19.  @billobrien4680  Good. Let Chinese companies pay the full cost of shipping their crap. Chinese prices will rise, and cheap Chinese labor won't look as good.
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  20. Peter has spoken of half a billion dead of famine, and China fracturing into multiple states.
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  21.  @kq2799  Nope. Just someone who's tired of the way FJB makes Jimmy Carter look good.
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  22.  @caseyh1934  Yeah, to the History Channel. Peter's videos age poorly, even in the 1 week delay from when he releases them on his Patreon page. I mostly come here to laugh at his TDS, and how far Trump is inside his, and the rest of the globalists', decision cycle.
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  23. When "elitism" is based on actual ability, it can certainly be efficient. When "elitism" is based on other qualities, the result is almost invariably bad.
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  24.  @liveinsea1  We were unwilling to fight WWIII, at the time. If China starts a war with the US, China will not enjoy the way that war unfolds. China is extremely dependent on oil arriving by tankers, from Vladivostok and the Persian Gulf. About 2/3 of China's oil comes from those ports. Oil from Vladivostok must pass by Tsushima Island, transiting either the 50 mile-wide Tsushima Strait, or the 50 mile-wide Korea strait. Antishipping missiles on Tsushima Island would easily close that route. Tankers are big, slow, targets. Fifty miles is easy range for antishipping missiles, and double hulls are no substitute for armor. The PLAN is simply incapable of operating in the Indian Ocean in sufficient strength to escort tankers to and from the Persian Gulf. The vast majority of China's naval ships are short-ranged corvettes, frigates, and torpedo/missile boats, that are formidable, within the China Sea, but lack the range to project power beyond the First Island Chain. If China's long-ranged ships were to sortie beyond the coverage of China's land-based air and missile support, they would meet 4-5 Nimitz-class carriers and quickly be sunk. Without the oil from Vladivostok and the Persian Gulf, China's economy collapses. Much of the remaining oil would have to be allocated to China's agricultural sector, to avoid famine. Most of the rest would go to just keeping the lights on. China's military would be unable to conduct major operations, due to lack of fuel. And that doesn't count what a campaign of commerce raiding would do to China's exports. Container ships are rather easy targets, and satellite reconnaissance would make them easy to track and intercept. And that, of course, assumes that America and its allies didn't simply close their markets to Chinese goods. Without exports, China can't even BUY the oil it needs, never mind the difficulties of shipping that oil. China, as we know it, is probably doomed by the end of the decade. But if China starts a war with the US, China as we know it, won't last to the end of next year. Of all of America's enemies, I worry about China the least.
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  25.  @bobmcbobson8368  He makes his living speaking to business groups. If he didn't support their objectives, his work would dry up.
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  26. FJB wasn't housebroken when the first nuclear bomb was dropped. Come to think of it, he's not housebroken, now.
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  27.  @asterixdogmatix1073  China cannot win a naval war with the US, in the Gulf of Oman. Neither can they force tankers past Tsushima Island, to Vladivostok. The vast majority of China's naval ships don't have the range to reach the Persian Gulf.
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  28. India has the Himalayas between them and China. Geography matters. For that matter, if China annoys India too much, in the aftermath of the Globalist system, India is well-positioned to cut off China's Middle Eastern and African oil imports. China doesn't begin to have the blue water ships to tangle with India in the Indian Ocean.
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  29. Globalization tends to be bad for workers in all but the lowest-wage countries. As the world de-globalizes, there should be opportunities for workers in wealthier countries, such as Japan. And if people around the world are tiring of China's cheap crap, they may look at countries, such as Japan, with a reputation for high-quality. My favorite company, for camera lenses is Sigma, which is not only based in Japan, but makes its lenses there. Got three of their lenses, all made in Japan, all top-notch. China's cheap-ass Chinesium crap has had it's day in the sun. I look forward to a world where people prefer quality. That's a world where Japan can do well.
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  30. ​ @austinduke8876  Considering the pain that Asia has caused American workers, I'm not terribly sympathetic.
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  31. Because it might have hurt the business community's profits, and two years ago, the government was still kowtowing to the Chamber of Commerce.
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  32.  @ClownCarCoup  The "problem" is that the back-benchers don't like what the leadership is pushing. So when the Whip comes around to tell members how to vote, they're telling him to sod off.
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  33.  @CristianmrWuno  Trump reminded Zelenskyy of a very important diplomatic principle. When you're trying to get something out of someone, lecturing them and insulting them is counterproductive. SOMEBODY told Zelenskyy that if he went hard at Trump and Vance they would cave. That person was either unbelievably stupid, or was trying to undermine Ukraine. Even Lindsay Graham, Ukraine's biggest cheerleader in the Senate turned his back on Zelenskyy. I'm American, and I consider myself a strong Ukraine supporter, but Zelenskyy screwed the pooch, this time. When someone's support is critical to your survival, insulting them is beyond stupid. It's Darwin Awards material.
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  34. Once you get yourself into a demographic hole, it's HARD to get out. It takes 21 years to make a 20 year-old.
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  35.  @JK-gu3tl  Better than Europe's. Better than the US, even with immigration. Way better than China or Russia. Age distribution of Argentina's population is basically pyramidal, with lots of young people and relatively few oldsters. That's a population with a lot of potential.
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  36. The problem with simply flying over difficult terrain is that tanks have very poor aerodynamic properties, they do not climb mountains well, neither are they good at swimming. Light forces may be able to fly over terrain obstacles, but heavy units have to do things the old-fashioned way. Another problem with using mountain routes is that mountain roads are easily blocked, either by landslides, or simply blasting out a chunk of the road bed.
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  37. "Conspiracy theory" and "spoiler alert" are approaching semantic equivalence.
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  38.  @tophat593  Not in cities. If you had listened to the video, PZ covered this. A high-rise apartment building doesn't have anywhere near enough roof to mount enough panels for its occupants. If you live in a single family house on the south side of a mountain in Colorado, transmission loss is negligible. If you live in NYC, where there is neither room enough on roofs to mount the panels nor enough sun to drive them, solar power is not really practical.
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  39. What happens when the AI looks at California and says, "Get me outta here!"
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  40. Fracking is generally done in strata that have several thousand feet of impermeable rock between the fracking and any aquifers. That's the reason the oil isn't already getting into the aquifer.
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  41.  @rugdnit911  All the gold, in California, is in a bank in the middle of Beverly Hills, in somebody else's name.
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  42.  @kevinshort2230  It's what is called an opening bid. You ask for the sun, moon, and stars, and let yourself be talked "down" to just the moon.
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  43. Figures don't lie, but sometimes liars figure.
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  44. And take twice as long to do whatever it is they do. Washing machines are the worst.
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  45.  @korbin9906  They can speak freely, as long as they don't offend Muslims.
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  46.  @MrOkadaman28  Sub-Saharan Africa is so geographically hosed that George Washington, Constantine the Great, and the Golden Emperor couldn't build an industrial civilization there. Sub-Saharan Africa is fragmented into tribes, because it has no geographical features, such as navigable rivers, to unite Africans. Civilizations grow in river valleys. Rivers create opportunities for trade that bind a country together. Egypt is the creation of the Nile. Europe is the creation of its numerous navigable rivers. The United States is the creation of the Greater Mississippi River Basin. Russia is poor, to this day, because of its lack of navigable waterways.
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  47.  @robertcrawford718  Good luck to China enforcing those rights. China has not projected naval power beyond the First Island Chain, since Zheng He. It is China's fatal strategic vulnerability.
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  48.  @johnsmith7345  If you're referring to my comment about immigrants in Europe, both. The Brits are the only ones even trying for legal equality for their immigrants. Culturally, much of the migrant population is Muslim, despises the "infidels", and doesn't WANT to assimilate.
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  49. Whatever else happens in the world. The US has the Great Plains, the world's largest contiguous region of high-quality farmland in the world. It is served by the Greater Mississippi River System, the world's largest inland waterway, in terms of navigable miles of river. It has arguably the world's strongest borders, even if FJB is determined not to secure them. It is energy sufficient, in spite of FJB's best efforts to kill domestic energy production. It is the world's greatest immigrant magnet, so American demographic deficiencies are helped by a steady flow of newcomers, and even without them, America's demographics are better than most of the developed world. In short, whatever happens, Americans aren't going to run out of food, energy, or people, and, in the immortal words of Mr. T, "Ah pity da fool" who starts a military conflict with us. No Eurasian power has the naval strength to challenge us, and no American power has any chance at all, of successfully invading us. What part of, "a rifle behind every blade of grass" do you not understand? America's two great strategic adversaries, Russia and China, are demographic sh¡tshows. Neither has the TIME to build up the necessary forces to challenge America, before their demographics collapse. The future belongs to those who show up. China and Russia apparently didn't get the memo. So yeah, we ARE "mostly ok" and "the rest are screwed". I have my differences with Peter, but on this, we agree.
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  50. Trump Derangement Syndrome really should be added to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, when the next edition comes out. Donald Trump's election is the effect (not the cause) of an American populace that just isn't into the rest of the world, anymore. We don't CARE what Europe thinks of us. We don't CARE about the Middle East, any more. We don't need their oil, we have plenty of our own. If the Middle East went up in flames, it would arguably be GOOD for American oil producers. If the Ukrainians cut off Novorossiysk with naval drones, it would arguably be GOOD for American oil producers. Americans have poured out both blood and treasure protecting Europe for the last 70-odd years. And Europe has sneered at "American cowboys" for the last 70-odd years. America is TIRED of propping Europe up. And I say that as one of the shrinking minority of Americans who still see some value in containing Russia. But what do American cowboys know?
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