Comments by "Carey\x27s Corner" (@careylymanjones) on "Iranian Seizure of Oil Tanker Could Spell Disaster for China || Peter Zeihan" video.

@fathel9221 China's problems are first, its awful demographics, and second, its dependence on global trade its navy cannot protect. China has labor shortages which have driven wages up by a factor of 14 since 2000. China is no longer a low-cost producer of anything. The only thing sustaining Chinese industry is its existing factories and the cost of duplicating them elsewhere. Any company that can afford to leave China is doing so. Even Apple is moving to India. China gets half of its oil from the Middle East. Another 10% comes from Russia via tanker. The Chinese Navy is completely incapable of protecting these tankers. And, as Peter pointed out, the US is increasingly disinterested in protecting global trade. A Sino-Indian war would see China's Middle East oil cut off.
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An individual American company's problem, not America's. American companies import oil because doing so is easier than retooling their refineries to refine American crude. If this causes American oil companies to rethink this, it's a good thing.
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He's been "telling us" for years, now.
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@jcgrundl To be protected by the US Navy. That hasn't mattered in the past. But if the US gets out of the business of protecting EVERYONE's shipping, being US-flagged might become more valuable.
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Saudi Arabia doesn't NEED the Persian Gulf, to ship oil. Iran does.
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The problem is that both Russia and China are both demographically FUBAR. Their populations are shrinking, and getting older. They're making their moves now, while they still have the military-age populations to succeed.
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In the Indian Ocean, the Chinese Navy isn't a fair match for the Indian Navy AND Air Force. And also, the Chinese aircraft carriers are relatively short ranged. They would be dependent on fleet colliers for fuel for that long a sortie.
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@Gazzapa57 40 years of One Child gutted China's under-40 demographics. By 2030, that will be under-50 demographics. How do you build a superpower out of fifty and sixtysomethings? China is screwed.
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@drones7838 The trend has been going on for 30 years, now. Clinton beat Bush I and Dole. Obama beat McCain and Romney. Trump beat Hillary. Biden "beat" Trump. In every election but the last, the less globalist candidate was elected. And in the last election, NEITHER candidate was a globalist. Someone was bound to notice it, and Peter was one of those someones. Did it take a while to reach this point? Sure. Big business pays a lot to both major parties to keep globalism going. Trump's administration was the death knell of globalism. The establishments of both parties colluded to get rid of Trump, but the damage is done. The American people are tired of sending their good manufacturing jobs overseas and getting McJobs and cheap Chinese crap from Walmart in return. Trump showed that it was possible to have broad-based prosperity by keeping taxes and regulations low, which made it profitable to do business in America, while keeping labor markets tight, through tariffs and improved border security. This forced employers to pay some of those profits to workers. Unemployment hit record lows. The first year of Trump's presidency, workers in the lowest quartile saw larger real wage gains than they did under Dubya and Obama, combined.
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"Infantry wins battles. Logistics wins wars." - Gen. John J. Pershing In a war with the US, China's logistics are COMPLETELY fv¢ked. China gets half of its oil from the Persian gulf, and another 10% from Russia via tanker. All of that goes away, either through sanctions or commerce raiding.
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The US has grown steadily less globalist. Globalism got its start as a means of containing the Soviet Union, which has been gone for 30 years. Globalism has been a good deal for the American investor class, AND NOBODY ELSE. In the last 8 Presidential elections, the winner has been the less globalist candidate. Clinton beat Bush I and Dole. Dubya beat Algore and Kerry. Obama beat McCain and Romney. Trump beat Hillary, Biden "beat" Trump. Americans are tired of sending good manufacturing jobs to China and getting McJobs and cheap Chinese crap from Walmart, in return. They're tired of sending American soldiers and sailors in harm's way, so CEOs can afford to buy a third yacht. The world keeps telling America to fv¢k off. They won't like it, when we do.
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Unlike China, Japan had a blue water navy. China would be so screwed in a war with the US that it would probably end China as a unified country. China gets about half of its oil from the Middle East. The Chinese Navy is COMPLETELY incapable of protecting that oil flow. With satellite reconnaissance to track Chinese tankers, stopping them well beyond the Chinese Navy's effective range is easy. And that's assuming the Middle Eastern oil producers didn't join sanctions against China. Without that oil, China doesn't have enough fuel to plant crops, feed stocks to make fertilizers and pesticides to grow crops, of fuel to harvest and distribute what they DO harvest. Think half a billion dead of famine in 12 months. Of all of America's enemies, I worry about China the least.
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They'd need fleet colliers to get them to the Persian Gulf. Either that, or load them on a real ship for the trip. Building a genuine blue water navy is a decades-long project. In view of China's awful demographics, it's doubtful that China HAS decades.
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What Chinese umbrella? 90% of the Chinese Navy's ships can sail 1,000 miles only if they go slowly and in a straight line. The Chinese Navy is a coastal defense force, an overgrown Coast Guard. Mostly corvettes, frigates, and torpedo fasts. China hasn't projected naval power beyond the First Island Chain since Zheng He (Ching Ho).
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The ship was owned by a Chinese bank. Operated by a Turkish company.
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@panographiximageservices3147 A charter does not confer ownership. It's a form of rental. The ship was Chinese-owned. Chevron paid the Turkish company to deliver the oil. It never got delivered. Chevron owes nothing. If anybody owes anyone anything, the Turkish company owes Chevron, and the contract will specify who owes what to whom, in the event of failure to complete the contract. Probably the insurance company ends up paying. Not our monkey, not our circus.
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@panographiximageservices3147 The money isn't coming out of Chevron's pockets, unless you're suggesting Chevron chartered a ship with no insurance. Oil companies take risks, but not that sort of risks.
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China's navy is not a blue-water force. It's a nasty handful in the China Sea, but it can't project power beyond the First Island Chain. China's ships don't have the range, nor does China have the overseas naval bases to support operations off Iran. It's true that China could nuke Iran, but that's about all China can do.
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Actually, no. Peter is a globalist. He'd hang pirates with a short rope, if he could.
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There's more to creating a blue water navy than just building a bunch of ships. You need a network of overseas naval bases. You need to master skills such as underway replenishment. You need to train a bunch of sailors. And China's demographics will make that increasingly difficult. When there's a labor shortage, wages go up, and military careers become less attractive.
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@someinternetguy955 Conscripting sailors means fewer available workers for factories, wages go higher, and more companies abandon China. China is no longer the low-cost manufacturer of anything. They are running on the inertia of companies' reluctance to abandon factories built in China. The higher wages rise, the less reluctance to leave. And conscripts are mostly good for cannon fodder. For skilled, technical jobs, not so much. By the time you get them trained, their term is up, and they're gone.
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@someinternetguy955 China protecting tankers in the Indian Ocean is just a non-starter. It takes TIME to build a blue water navy. Cultural norms have nothing to do with it. China to the Persian Gulf is a long trip. Dongdu to the Ju'aymah Crude & LPG Terminals in Saudi Arabia is over 5,300 nautical miles. At 10 knots, that's over 23 days. New York to London is only a bit over 3,300 nautical miles, and we had a hell of a time protecting cargo ships in WWII. And exactly who would these friends of China be? Or to rephrase, what friends does China have that could provide their navy with useful support AND are willing to become co-belligerents in a war with the US. It's not like China could protect them from the US Navy. Iran? Not likely. One air strike on Kharg Island and they're out of the oil business. Pakistan? They have their hands full with India. No way they want a war with us. The First Island Chain pretty much hates China. They'd be more likely to help us than China. And Saudi Arabia is far beyond the reach of Chinese land-based air and missile support. Any Chinese task force sailing beyond that umbrella would be unlikely to survive air strikes from five or six Nimitz-class carriers. Satellite reconnaissance would give us detailed information on any such force, with plenty of time to assemble overwhelming force to meet it. No, it's at least 20 years before China can project naval power much beyond the First Island Chain. And China's demographics are so bad that China doesn't HAVE 20 years.
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@stafer3 Nah, India just starts charging a 20% toll on Chinese tankers passing through the Indian Ocean.
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