Comments by "Tx240" (@Texas240) on "RealLifeLore"
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Regarding Ukraine going into Crimea, I'm not sure if it was covered, but Ukraine already has units in the Russian held territory between the Dnipro river and Crimea.
We can guess they are scouting Russian defenses and assessing supply and other "set up" targets for a potential attack into that region. Such an attack would drive the Russians into Crimea.
At that point, Ukraine doesn't have to attack into Crimea. Ukraine can knock out the Kerch Straight bridge and use its shore based anti ship missiles (hello, Moskva) to prevent resupply to Crimea.
As mentioned, Crimea can't sustain itself. Eventually, the situation will become untenable for Russia.
If Putin hadn't been hell bent on rebuilding the Russian Empire, he could've signed a 200 year lease to keep the bases on Crimea and not try to bypass the oil transport fees it was paying to pump oil into Europe through Ukraine.
But, we know Putin is mentally ill, suffering delusions of grandeur and, generally, Russia has no interest in being a good neighbor. The concept of "catch more flies with honey than vinegar" has no analogue in Russian.
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