Comments by "Tx240" (@Texas240) on "Jake Broe" channel.

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  12. I'm not a fan of Trump. However, any real Republicans know that Russia isn't a friend. There's a few key points on the Ukraine war. First, Ukraine is fighting the exact same war that the American Colonies were fighting in 1775. In our effort to gain independence from England, we had help from the French and that help was not trivial or insignificant. If France hadn't helped the colonists, America might not be a thing. Second, related to the above point, Ukraine is more different than Russia in terms of language and culture than the American Colonies were different from England! I have a Russian speaking friend living in Ukraine, one of the people who Putin was allegedly "helping". She had to flee a city in the Donbas during the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Since February 2022, she's denounced her Russian heritage and says she can't understand what's wrong with Russians in Russia that they allow or support Putin in the bombardment of Russian speaking areas of Ukraine. I had learned Russian and was surprised how different Ukrainian is from Russian when she started learning Ukrainian. I can't understand any of it. My point here is that Ukraine is not "part of Russia", not culturally or linguistically or historically. Kyiv existed as a city long before Moscow or Russia. Third, the war in Ukraine is actually a fight to PREVENT WWIII. Our inaction and failure to fulfill our obligation under the Budapest Memorandum to guarantee Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its nuclear deterrent. Our inaction in 2014 was the exact same thing as giving Putin a green light to continue his invasion and ultimately his efforts to rebuild the Russian Empire. After listening to julia ioffe interview on PBS (available on YouTube), it's clear that Putin really thinks it's Russia's right to re-acquire territory that Putin thinks should be within the Russian sphere of influence. This territory includes Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland. All are NATO members. Not stopping Russia in Ukraine and aiding Ukraine until Russia withdraws from all areas of Ukraine would lead to invasion of NATO countries that were formerly Soviet states. Ukraine is spending blood to prevent WWIII in addition to fighting for their own independence. Any real Republican remembers or knows of Ronald Reagan. In his words: "Simple-minded appeasement or wishful thinking about our adversaries is folly." And "There is no safety, no security in the appeasement of evil." Evil and bullies don't need provocation to do evil deeds. Inaction never stopped a bully's next beating. He needs to be stopped, just as Putin does. Finally, as regards cost, allowing Ukraine to spend the blood to stop a US and NATO adversary is a bargain. In a more direct sense, money spent helping Ukraine is also a bargain compared to what it would cost when Putin invades a NATO country that he views as "Russian territory". And, if Putin isn't stopped in Ukraine it is guaranteed that he will enter other former Soviet states that are now NATO members. Incidentally, in the ioffe interview, she pointed out how Putin thinks every American president, including Trump, was a rube and not his equal. Putin specifically brought young, attractive translators to meetings with Trump to distract Trump. Most Russians look down on blacks and Putin thought Obama was just a stupid black. So, Putin was anti America, regardless of who was in the White House.
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  35. Russia doesn't control the skies. Both sides have proliferated ground based air defenses (GBAD) that prevent the other side from safely operating aircraft. Russian air superiority jets stay over Russian controlled territory, protected by their GBAD and lob R37 long range missiles at Ukranian aircraft when they are detected by Russian AWACS over the black sea or Russian territory or ground based radar. These long range attacks are mainly to make the Ukrainians evade and stop trying to do whatever they're trying to do. The R37 was designed to hit B52 stratofortress bombers, not fighters and while very fast, isn't maneuverable. Unfortunately, the F-16 offers no safe counter to either the Russian GBAD or the Russian R37 vollies. The R37 has a range of up to 200 km. The US AIM 120 AMRAAM that the F-16 will carry has a range of about 60km. The F-16s will never get in range to attack Russian aircraft. The Russians will simply fly away from the F-16s and encourage the F-16s to fly over Russian GBAD to snack on a few missiles. The F-16s will decline the offer and the Russian jets will turn around and pop off a couple more R 37s. That's modern air combat. Air to air battles aren't "dogfights" and the F-16 brings nothing valuable to the Ukrainian air superiority situation. Where the F-16 could be effective and where it will have to be effective if air superiority is the goal is SEAD or suppression of enemy defenses. The Ukrainians have already dabbled in firing Western HARM anti radiation (anti radar) missiles from Mig 29s. The F-16 will offer better integration of these missiles as well as other guided missiles like the AGM 65 maverick and various unguided munitions (bombs and rockets) which can all be valuable for elimination of Russian GBAD. The problem is that Ukraine will lose jets and pilots doing this, hunting the things designed to shoot them down. The Russian PANTSIR system can integrate multiple launchers into each other's radar so that "dark" launchers can still fire at Ukrainians hunting the units with active radar. Think Iraq 1, where the US blitzed Saddam's GBAD and where we (the US) lost aircraft and had pilots paraded on Iraqi TV. Then turn that up to 11 and you have what Ukraine is facing in trying to deal with Russian GBAD. The F-16 will be similar to the Leopard, except even less significant. Ukraine operates the Mig 29. It's the functional equivalent of the F-16 in flight performance, munitions carrying ability, and mission profiles. The F-16 doesn't bring much to Ukraine that the Mig 29 doesn't already give them... Except more airframes that can be sacrificed in Ukraine's fight for independence, ultimately, from Russia. What Ukraine REALLY needs is the Swedish Gripen. First, this jet can use the British Meteor, which the F-16 currently doesn't. This is a longe range air to air missile that would give rough parody to Russia's R37. It's a little shorter but designed to hit fighters and so, more of a threat than the R37. The Gripen can also carry the Storm Shadow missile which the F-16 doesn't. Ukraine is currently using aging and few Su 24 aircraft to carry and launch the Storm Shadow. Having Gripen would ease the burden on the Su24s and allow Ukraine to continue using such long range missiles as the Soviet era jets wear out. Gripen for long range air to air and Storm Shadow missions with F-16 for SEAD, close air support and locking down the Black Sea with AGM 84 Harpoon missiles in addition to combined use of ATACMS, decoys, S200s, etc would be an ideal combination to enable Ukraine to blitz Russian GBAD. The problem arises as Ukraine closes distance to Russia. The ground launched anti air missiles can be inside Russian territory which means they're safe from Western or US weapons and free to shoot down F-16s over Ukraine. The F-16 alone will be less of a game changer than Leopard tanks were. It's ironic that one of the best dog fighters ever built will see it's most significant use in the ground attack role in Ukraine and virtually no air to air combat (unless helicopters count).
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  45. Actually, it's worse than that. If the US quits supporting Ukraine, Ukraine will be forced to start attacking targets inside Russia, especially civilian targets like heat and electricity, that they so far have been avoiding because it would cause a loss of Western support. Perun channel recently did a presentation that indicates a large part of Putin being able to continue is the lack of effect or cost of the war on most Russian's everyday lives. If Ukraine was able to place a cost on the war for ordinary Russians (say, not having heat or electricity during winter) then the tacit support for Putin's war could dry up and leave Putin with larger concerns at home. Remember, if Western aid stops, Ukraine ends up in a desperate fight for survival alone and means they'll have lost the reason to take the high road and will need to take whatever action they see necessary to ensure their survival. Ironically, the US halting military aid to Ukraine could actually cause the as yet merely threatened nuclear escalation. Putin and his upper echelon already believe this is a war between Russia and the United States or NATO and that we are (somehow) forcing Ukraine to fight when Ukraine really just wants to give up and be part of Russia. If US aid dries up and Ukraine is forced to start attacking infrastructure inside Russia in order to place a cost on the war for average Russians and try to cause backlash against Putin inside Russia, Russia will view these attacks as COMING FROM (or at the instruction of THE UNITED STATES. Juila ioffe, an expert on Russia has suggested that it would be better if Russians were purple. As it is they look like us, European (most Americans are of European descent) but they absolutely don't think like us. Because they look similar, it's easy to forget that they very much aren't similar. So, with that in mind, our purple Russians will interpret the consequences of US halting aid to Ukraine as escalation by the United States and an attack by the United States directly on Russia proper. So, by halting aid to Ukraine, the United States will both lose any influence over Ukraine's war activities AND be escalating the war in the mind of Russia's leaders.
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