Youtube comments of Martinit0 (@Martinit0).

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  94. Hi David, Great post! The official announcement that fusion ignition has been achieved at NIF came just as your video went online. So good nose ;-) The funny thing about laser-based fusion is that the US has a big gap in commercial laser capability: There is NIF, which is a unique government entity and then there is nothing up until relatively 'pedestrian' commercial lasers by companies like Coherent (COHR) and MKS Instruments (MKSI), formerly Newport Spectra-Physics. The market of ultra-high power commercial lasers has been left to the Europeans, specifically two French companies Amplitude Technologies and Thales (yes, the defense giant). However, NIF and other US national labs still hold significant experience in very large scale lasers and laser optical systems (like how to manufacture them). So the big question is now will this NIF achievement trigger any development in the US laser industry or will they leave the field to the Europeans? My guess is US companies won't pick up the tech because the commercial opportunity of laser-based fusion is still far away and relatively uncertain and the business would be quite 'lumpy', i.e. one could only expect to sell maybe a handful systems per year. I also share your excitement regarding the other technologies, although I think that photonic chips are way too physically large to compete with silicon chips. But the article and paper you mentioned looks really interesting in as they have taken a different approach to training neural networks, not just tried to replicate silicon based algorithms. Hopefully the first CRISPR-based gene editing treatment will be approved by FDA next year - so far it's looking good and on track - first patients that participated in the clinical trials have already been cured.
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  117. The biggest reason to own a vehicle vs renting is availability. The second one for families with small kids is convenience: if you own the vehicle you just leave the child seats in place. If you rent one you'd have to remove all personal belongings for each trip or specifically call a car with suitable child seats. Having said that, this Tesla Cybercab is obviously not suitable for families. There is another more psychological reason: if you own a care the direct cost of a specific trip is not obvious to you. It appears to be free. Most people use their cars as if it costs nothing to use them (in terms of what trips they make and the distances). This changes if you use a (robo)taxi. Every trip has immediately visible direct cost attached to it. Quick run to the grocery shop, $7.50. Pick up a friend somewhere across the city $12. Go to the cinema, add $8.75. Visit grandma $350. I'm telling you people won't like this. Having said that, a robotaxi compared to a classic rental car should have much better availability and hopefully lower cost. I have no car myself since a few years but I doubt Americans will easily give up car ownership. It requires a big change of habits. People don't like to change habits. Especially not if it decreases convenience AND adds directly visible cost. I'm saying people who own a car will keep their car and keep buying cars UNLESS they really, really cannot afford it or lose their drivers license. Customers will be mostly people who already don't own a car, travellers and young people who are not used to owning a car.
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  796. I heard somebody argue that we already live in the age of abundance. Only things that are truly scarce cost a lot of money: land (because of location) and in extension housing, branded stuff, college tuition (a variant of brand). While the common necessities are relatively cheap (relative to income): food, electronics, energy. Products and services that require a lot of labor remain expensive (healthcare, construction to some extent). But I hear you say "it doesn't feel like that - everything is so expensive". And that is right, too. I believe to some extent it is because we desire those expensive things and to some other extent parts of the economy are hijacked (e.g. US healthcare, probably housing as well). We desire to go to Ivy league colleges. We desire fashion etc. In fact, a large part of creating a profitable business nowadays is to think about how you can make your products more desirable in the eye of the customer. That is what branding is all about and large parts of marketing. Ever heard of "demand generation"? Most businesses don't struggle to make stuff, they struggle to get customers in the door. So in conclusion I think money will remain important to allocate those scarce products and services and even if we already have everything we need the next Steve Jobs is working hard on creating another thing that we didn't even know we needed but we desire it now that it exists. And if that new Steve Jobs is smart he will now we desire this thing and make the price high.
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