Comments by "William Morris" (@williammorris584) on "Russia's strengths and weaknesses u0026 what Kyiv needs for victory | Ukraine: The Latest Podcast" video.

  1. I see opinion in the US that is beginning to see the stated Ukrainian victory conditions as unattainable by them in the context of their performance this summer (never mind that at least some of the problems resulted from moronic doctrinal suggestions from Western militaries). Further, the Israel war now has higher significance for the US. If one has to choose one or the other, we would probably be inclined to the Levant, especially since the US managed the decline of the USSR tolerably well even when the current Ukraine was a Soviet possession. These events, along with political considerations are causing some hitches in support for Ukraine in the US. If it is necessary to negotiate, now might be better rather than in the context of an event like a first ‘no’ vote on UKR aid in our Congress, or AfD surging into the BRD government after a major election success. As your guest said, time is on Russia’s side, especially since Ukrainian success is dependent upon outside help, and only the Russians have escalatory options.
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  2.  @Jszar  The western allies provide stuff, they aren’t currently fighting and show no proclivity to do so, meaning there are a few things that Russia can do that Ukraine cannot reply in kind. One is using strategic ALCM or other platforms with conventional warheads; admittedly a trade off since it erodes Russia’s deterrent. Another is using its submarines to enforce shipping restrictions, implying a more forceful interdiction of Ukraines ability to ship grain. Interference with satellite comms. Holding a new nuclear test. Mobilizing closer to the percentage of population that Ukraine has. It’s not difficult to come up with stuff. In any case, these things are just a coda to my previous post.
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  3. First part accurate, second part entirely plausible.
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  4.  @halporter9  Correct, moving 20 or so votes in the House is all it takes to allow more to waver. Also, several European countries are at least tapping the brakes, and others have negative signs politically, eg surging AfD in Germany.
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  5.  @The_ZeroLine  Clearly resistance has expanded. Previously, aid passed virtually by acclamation, but now it has trouble getting to the floor.
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