Comments by "William Morris" (@williammorris584) on "Russia takes control in Avdiivka | Ukraine: the latest | Podcast" video.

Look for Russia to explore ways to interdict aid whether by sea, air, or land. There are interesting possibilities, but some have escalatory risk.
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Ukraine did indeed have the advantage and initiative for a good part of last year, but the misguided offensive plan, the Russians’ stubborn defense, and the Russians’ leveraging of their manpower tipped the scales. From there, the Ukranians mistakenly turned appearances into military priorities, and the Russians exploited this repeatedly.
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He certainly saw what every thoughtful observer saw: that Avdiivka was going to be encircled if it was not evacuated. Saying so may have got him the sack.
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12:43 It’s not a handful, it’s the Speaker and the majority party.
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The Russians will probably push west from Avdiivka enough to develop the Ukrainian line and exploit any gap. They are already attacking in the Robotyne area with a force at least as large as that used at Avdiivka, and are also attacking west out of Bakhmut. The meat attacks ceased around Avdiivka several months ago and Ukrainian sources report that Russian troops appear to be better trained than previously. The Russians were for the first time able to successfully use and sustain close air support around Avdiivka, indicating that they believe that important results can be gained by committing their air assets that were previously carefully preserved. A force considerably larger than that used at Avdiivka appears to be forming up in the Kupyiansk region for another attack. Regardless of past attrition, even the Ukrainians say the Russians outnumber them everywhere, showing that the Russians have leveraged their demographic advantage and so far have won the mobilization race. The Ukrainians need everything, but especially one thing no one can give them: more Ukrainians. It’s a critical situation for Ukraine, with the danger of collapse in multiple locations. Regime change in Russia is their best hope, but there is no guarantee that would halt the war. Had the US House passed the aid on then the day the Senate passed it, dropping $60B on Ukraine may not have made any real difference at Avdiivka. Should it be necessary as noted in the podcast, Ukraine’s best negotiating position may have passed.
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@gogudelagaze1585 And yet Ukraine says they are outnumbered overall, and the intel services of other countries agree. Either someone is bad at math, the loss estimates are inaccurate, or Russia has leveraged their demographic advantage.
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@TheDavidlloydjones Who said use surface ships? The Russians have several types of long range maritime strike aircraft with multiple series of dedicated air-to-ship missiles as well as LGB’s, etc. These have various ranges, speeds, and strike profiles. They also have submarines and Ukraine doesn’t do ASW.
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Western media, including this podcast, has been fighting the information war for Ukraine. It’s reasonable and expected. Reference to multiple sources is necessary to get an accurate picture, and this has been a good source for some things.
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