Comments by "William Morris" (@williammorris584) on "Outgunned Ukrainian troops withdraw from eastern town of Avdiivka" video.

Ukraine has preemptively declared that Kharkiv and Kyiv have no strategic value.
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The Russians will probably push west and northwest from Avdiivka to develop the line taken by the Ukrainians after their withdrawal and to exploit any gap caused by imperfect communications or weakened units. Of interest, it looks like a larger group of forces than was used at Avdiivka is beginning to shape an attack in the Robotyne area, with successful movements to the west and north of the town , possibly already cutting the main road into Robotyne from the Orikhiv area. Operational tempo seems to be quickening for the Russians; they also appear to be pushing out of Bakhmut into Ivanivske. A Russian concentration larger that these two combined appears to be massing in the Kupiyansk area, probably for a move in the Kharkiv direction.
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If a couple brigades had to flee across a corridor under visual Russian observation and swept by artillery, mortars and small arms, there will have been heavy losses. Add to this the groups of Ukrainian troops admittedly surrounded and cut off to be killed or captured, and it’s very bad, assign whatever comforting verbiage you please. Also considering that units this battered and disorganized by retreat have left the most elaborate field fortifications Ukraine possessed and will have to remain in the line, it ain’t good. Oh, and the command had to commit what was probably their only fresh reserve brigade to help break the encirclement and get out whatever they saved. Precipitous retreats are some of the most costly things an army can do; it more than tips the losses in favor of the attackers, eg the relatively nearby Korsun in 1944.
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@billwhitis9997 Today, Ukraine is admitting that groups of their troops were cut off and captured in Avdiivka. Geolocated footage shows where those who fled have moved, and it’s a number of km from where they were a day ago. They don’t talk about losses, they never have, such things have to be inferred. The conditions of their withdrawal that I noted previously are easily inferred, the level of losses is unknown but certainly not light. I’m not feeling that I am deficient in facts to draw a conclusion: the Ukranians were flanked out of a heavily fortified position, made the decision to retreat too late, had to commit reserves to extract anything at all, and now have withdrawn from heavily fortified positions to face the Russians in barely prepared positions. During this battle, the Russians also established air superiority for the first time over a sustained period and were able to provide regular close air support.
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NikolaJokerMVP15 😆
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