Comments by "Mark Armage" (@markarmage3776) on "'Not Buying This Dip,' Says BlackRock's Brazier" video.
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@josephhoward4697 Yeah, both you and your friends made serious mistakes, pal.
Because your friend cash out before they gain back their money.
If they're buying the dip, then if it crashes more, then they have to wait longer until it bounce back up, eventually it will bounce back up.
If they listen to Mr Market and sell just because everybody else is selling and price is going down then they have no idea what they're doing.
And neither did you know what you're doing. There's absolutely no reason for the stock to rise in the last 2 years. You got lucky, pal. You bought the bubble while it is expanding and seemingly cash out before it pops. That's not skill, that's pure luck.
Because you still have no idea why it went up or why it went down.
You just gambled and got lucky.
Sane People time the bottom not to win immediately, that's where your friends did wrong. You time the bottom to maximize profits in the long run. Had your friends hold it until it recovers, they would have made serious profits.
As long as they choose solid stocks, they don't need to "cut loses" because those companies will last far beyond into the future.
So that's where you and your friends go wrong. Both you and your friends have no idea what you're doing.
You bought on the way up, it's called FOMO, you got lucky it didn't pop in your face. Enjoy the money because if you keep doing that, you won't make any more of it. Your friends cut loses quickly because they listen to the market and follows the crowd.
Different outcome doesn't mean one side was correct and the other side was wrong. If two people both gambled, even if one person won and the other person lost, both of them are idiots.
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@josephhoward4697 It's usually difficult to call top or bottom but not in this case, pal.
Inflation is there, it's not going to stop just by one interest rate hike, so by default, it will continue to rise and the fed will continue raise interest rates.
You can't time top or bottom in a normal decline, but you can very much time top or bottom in a massive crash. Especially a "stagflation" period, if the economy can't go up anymore, it has to go down, and if there's no logical sign of it bouncing back up, the crash hasn't reach the bottom yet. The stock market is propped up on free money, how long can that last? Market will crash sooner or later then it will recover. So thinking that it will never crash is stupid.
If by your argument of the long run, then it doesn't matter if you buy the dip or not, you can even buy it at the top and hold because in the long run, 30, 40 years, good companies will outperform whatever price that is.
But that's not what ordinary people wants to do. Sure, we'll hold some of the stocks for 30, 40 years, but not all of them, people need cash to live, and time it correctly is key to maximize your profit in 4-5 years.
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