Comments by "Mark Armage" (@markarmage3776) on "He Predicted a Trump Win in 2016. What's His Forecast For 2020? | NYT Opinion" video.

  1. In 2016, he predicted that Trump won the popular vote. That couldn't be more wrong. The same was with Bush and Gore. The method he use makes no sense, because that 13 keys he make doesn't account for the severity of each cases, he developed it in 1980s, and till now, there has only been 10 elections. Most of it was a fluke, because out of those 10, he was wrong 2 times, and the other 8 times he went with the polls. The dumbest thing is to say that social unrest lies with the riots, and not with the people afraid of the riots. The subjective judgment of true or false is as cliche as it can get. If there's no methodology to the result you make, it's insane to think that the results are anything but a fluke.
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