Comments by "神州 Shenzhou" (@Shenzhou.) on "Is US military strong enough to take on China? (2016)" video.
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+Lion24 Indeed, USA has anti-missile capabilities, but they have to intercept the missile only during midflight, which means they have to react immediately to any launch in order to successfully defend against it. Furthermore, China won't just fire one missile, we will fire a salvo to saturate the area, since US aircraft carriers would be a priority target during a war.
Conquering and occupying islands depends on each navy's own strategies and also some luck. Hawaii may be difficult, but if we occupy Okinawa, we can make it difficult for USA to take that area back by simply installing more troops there. The PLA is one of our greater assets, and it can be used to occupy territory outside of China and make it difficult. for US to try and reclaim those land. US airforce can bomb the islands, but it would take a land invasion ultimately to reclaim those islands. We will have to put our strength to good use in this war.
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+Tao Liu I agree that a big population requires better control over the people. Qing’s army consisted of poorly trained Han conscripts who resented Manchu rule and the British had vastly superior firearms, ships etc. However, modern PRC is much different from Qing dynasty. The PLA is trained, well-equiped modern army loyal to the CPC.
China’s food source could be disrupted by war, which is why every country has emergency stockpile in case of war or disaster. China has been stockpiling rice, iron ore, barrels of oil and various other supplies. I mentioned 80% of weapons being manufactured indigenously not stockpiled, but I agree that it is not perfect and the shortfall would have to come out from allies like Pakistan. US can enforce a naval blockade, but China also does business with many other inland countries unless the US can enforce sanctions against it.
Aircraft, ships and tanks take a long time to build, but China is known as the manufacturing hub of the world. China has entire manufacturing cities like Shenzhen that cater quite exclusively to building products. The CPC just needs an efficient organization of manpower to make full use of it. China also has experience in building infrastructure (which is why they build roads in Africa) so it depends on how well the US can disrupt the transport system.
China’s navy is inferior, but it can make use of defensive outposts along the South China Sea as bases to support its navy and air force. Some bases have anti-aircraft gun emplacements and surface to air missiles. There are airstrips for military craft to land and refuel if needed.
As for war support, I agree that it depends on how PRC’s actions are perceived. Another thing to note is that China and US economies are linked. Cutting economic ties with China would result in increased prices of products in the US, which would affect the normal livelihood of people each day. Under CPC, the whole Chinese population is ultilised for war, being assigned to factories, growing food etc.
As for launching attacks, PRC’s best choice would be Taiwan. This is because PLA has already trained extensively in exercises involving an invasion of Taiwan, so it won’t take years to prepare.
US may be able to send carriers to the region but I still believe the video is biased in favour of the US. Aircraft carriers are powerful, but they are vulnerable to things like a sneaky submarine torpedo or anti carrier missile. If I was a Chinese general, I would focus on sending submarines and bombers to take out the aircraft carriers because they represent the morale of the US.
As for cruise missiles, China has many, many missiles pointed at Taiwan. It would be foolish to think that PRC invested so much money into these weapons without a reliable tracking system.
I don’t claim to be a military expert. PRC may succeed in some areas and lose in other areas that I mentioned above. Strictly speaking, no video in Youtube will ever show PRC winning against the US because such an outcome is simply not acceptable by netizens and will only anger them and result in less views. In real life, mistakes can happen on both sides and ultimately, it depends on the number of victories and losses from both sides.
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+Tao Liu I brought up the Qing dynasty in order to compare it’s army with the PLA. PLA may not be as advanced as the US, but it is still a modern army, not WW2 era. I was focusing on PLA’s attributes like loyalty to CPC and so on, not on the numbers. The US air force and Navy are indeed massive, but remember they are limited by the time it takes to deploy them to the warzone. About 40% of US navy assets are deployed in Asia, while China has close to 100% of its navy ready.
In the Gulf War, the Iraq Army had more combat experience than PLA but perhaps not more sophisticated equipment. The war in Kuwait was perhaps US last known successful war, but the next wars were not so successful strategically. The US Army is equipped with all the best and latest gear they can be stymied by lightly armed insurgents that fight with their hearts not with hardware in the battles following the Gulf War.
In a war, trade is risky because of possible sabotage and China will seek alternatives to naval trade. You look down on Chinese infrastructure capability but China can build roads and railways if needed during war time. During WW2, the Chinese helped build roads like Ledo road that allow supplies to enter from the West because the naval routes were blocked off. China already has a railroad linking to Russia. Russia may choose to remain neutral to the war, but it has a history of supplying weapons to countries in conflict with the US. In a war of attrition, China has self-sufficiency in food production, emergency stockpiles, 80% home manufactured weapons and possible inflow of weapons from Russia. So how much more prepared can China get?
Regarding China’s manufacturing, China not only manufactures low quality products but also technology like vehicles and high speed railway trains. China’s automotive industry churns out more vehicles than the US (Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry#By_country) and China has the most expansive and complex high speed railway in the world. China even has hi speed rail projects in the UK to help them connect the country together. As for global arms sales, they do not reflect a country’s ability to manufacture arms for itself during war.
China’s airstrip is only one of many that are possibly being built. China can quickly establish more bases in the region if needed, as shown them overtaking other bases built by other nations in the region. They may not cover the whole sea, but the SAMs and gun emplacement provide strategic cover in that region to support China’s navy.
PLA has been planning possible retaking of Taiwan for many years already. PLA has many training exercises simulating an invasion of Taiwan so I doubt it would take as long as a month to prepare. PRC knows time is of the essence in this war with the US. Examples like PRC landing only 2 brigades of troops are only speculation and we won’t know how capable PLA is on invading Taiwan and how much of its forces is it willing to deploy.
PRC is capitalist, but during war, the whole country literally goes to war. Chinese has this saying that translates to “Can there be a home without a country?” Chinese people know what’s at stake if they allow the US to land on Chinese soil, as all their hard work building the nation will be destroyed. Sure, some may choose to escape, but CPC would be extremely harsh on them.
You can look down on Chinese submarines, but they have shown the ability to stalk US carriers a number of times from the following sources.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2006/nov/13/20061113-121539-3317r/
http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/news/a18094/a-chinese-submarine-stalked-an-american-aircraft-carrier/
The submarines have demonstrated an ability to surface within torpedo range undetected from the carrier and its escorts.
Sorry, but you can’t convince me that PRC’s 1000+ missiles pointed at Taiwan are all unreliable. Why would the PRC spend so much money on the missiles and train PLA in Taiwan retaking exercises if they weren’t going to deploy them at all?
I’ve already said that no Youtube video will ever show China winning because nobody will think it will. In this video alone, there is hardly any reference to what China’s navy is doing. There is no point constantly telling me to refer to this video alone. You have to rely on other sources outside and make your own decision.
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+Tao Liu The Gulf war was fought by a coalition but this time US may not have the same allies. Japan, S.Korea and Taiwan are China’s biggest traders after the US. For NATO allies to support they would have to go by land, through the Iraq, Iran and possibly Russia. And I keep saying “modern” because it PLA is modern, no use denying it.
40% of US navy is based on size not tonnage. US navy tonnage is unequally distributed so why would it be a comparison? If you want to compare tonnage then you should look at the locations of the aircraft carriers in the world
.
Why can’t PLA be both conventional and guerrilla? PLA was formed from the Communist forces fighting the Japanese and made use of guerrilla tactics to defeat the Japanese. With its size, it doesn’t need to resort to guerrilla warfare, but that does not mean it won’t use it if needed.
If you want to compare conventional warfare, then the Korean war would suffice. China and US and its allies were facing off in a conventional warfare and the US were stymied and unable to achieve complete victory.
You still look down on Chinese infrastructural capacity and I had already given examples of China during WW2 had no naval trade because of Japanese navy, but still built roads to receive supplies from allies. Back then China’s infrastructure was poor but now it is among the most well-connected in the world so the roads and railroads now would be much better. China has great experience building railroads and is even helping South Africa with roads so why is China’s infrastructure building so looked down upon?
So if China has poor harvest in one year, it would draw upon its stockpile. If the harvest was good, there is no need to take from the stockpile and if possible, it could even store the surplus. Why do you separate these two activities from each other when China can make use of both? After US bombings, China is not stupid and will also repair the broken infrastructure. In China alone there are many, many paths to destroy so even if one road is inaccessible, China could rely on other paths to transport supplies.
Like it or not, China produce 80% of its arms locally and can even import arms through landlines from Russia. Like I said, Russia may not participate in the war, but even during WW2, the Soviets and Nazis traded with each other secretly so why won’t they do the same with China? And I’ve already said what has China’s arms exports got to do with being able to produce enough locally? The fact that nations buy the weapons already shows that they aren’t of low quality.
And you underestimate Chinese island building. Why then is the world so alarmed at Chinese base building? Vietnam and Philippines had bases there long before China but China’s base building is the only one in the news. Is it because of the speed it was built? The SAM and gun emplacements are only there to support the PLA N strategically in the South China Sea. PLA N is still the main fighting force.
PRC’s preparation of invasion of Taiwan should not be underestimated. It will take time but PRC leaders know time is of the essence here, with the US looming on the horizon. PRC doesn’t have many amphibious assaults vehicles because Taiwan is within range of its missiles so it would most likely use ballistic missiles to soften up targets. PRC may not even use a land invasion force and will only send the PLA through air or even by sea to occupy Taiwan once the defences are down.
The US civilians can prepare for war, but will the entire population support the war? US has a history of losing wars because its civilians want out of the war.
Stalking still means that the Chinese submarine was able to keep pace with the Carrier. The point is also whether the US ships were able to detect the submarine before it surfaced within torpedo range. Also, which submarine travels slowly while exposed to the surface during war time?
Most Chinese like it when people look down on its military capabilities. This is because of according to Sun Zi’s Art of war, you should let the army think you are weak, and let arrogance be their downfall.
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The population of China is equivalent to the combined population of the former Soviet Union, plus Pakistan, Afghanistan, Finland, Poland, Slovakia, Romania, and Hungary. Oh, and all of Southeast Asia, Japan, and both Koreas.
Source: http://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/08/a-surprising-map-of-the-world-shows-just-how-big-chinas-population-is/278691/
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