Comments by "J Garcia" (@jorge1170xyz) on "ZILLOW: Home Building EXPLODES" video.

I've seen many builders (intelligently) switch over to smaller floorplans, and also to "attached" homes (aka townhomes, but they are more home-like now than previous designs). I think the strategy is to sell SOMETHING so that they can smooth out the lower profit they know is coming from their unsold Mcmansions.
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Both things can't be true. For both to be true, that means the specific properties YOU are looking at are just more the desirable ones, and are therefore selling fast, while at the same time, some serious price slashing is going on with the less desirable properties (homes that investors might want, but refuse to pay top dollar for now).
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@hood6854 I don't but Zillow does. Either Zillow's data is wrong (almost impossible), or you are laser focused on something and it's causing a perceived mismatch between your observations and the data.
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Don't stress about interest rates, the higher the better in the long run. But you have to be patient and wait many months for those high rates to eat away at the price (we are just beginning to see the damage to prices from the high rates now). Ultimately, the monthly payment MUST go to where the buyer is, and that amount is almost a fixed number because incomes are almost a fixed number. I would much rather pay 300k of interest on a 300k home than 100k of interest on a 500k home. Still 600k either way, except in one case I had great options and in the other case i was trapped and screwed. But realistically, rates may have just peaked, so if everything goes to hell in the next couple of years, then there may be a small window of opportunity to get a low price AND a low rate.
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@paulconner4614 Agreed. I am also in Construction. Every homebuilder WANTS to make 4 bedroom Mcmansions, but there's only so many buyers for that one type of home. So if there's no choice, you tighten up your ship and you build whatever sells. This kind of thing happened in the 70's with automobiles (and is on the cusp of happening again to domestic automakers). The automakers WANTED to keep making high profit land yachts forever, but all that Americans could afford were low margin econoboxes from Japan and Germany. So Ford, AMC, GM etc had no choice but to make the Pinto, Gremlin, Vega, etc.
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The market is severely bifurcated, which is why there are so many mixed signals. But there's no way that schizophrenic relationship can last forever. Look at San Jose and Austin, ALL homes are 20% off peak or more, and falling. That will certainly lead to strategic defaults and economic carnage in some months. What we are seeing now is a combination of overzealous "dip buyers" AND ridiculously low inventory stemming from nobody wanting to sell. That's an unsustainable situation. Nobody selling is taking a huge toll on the entire realty and mortgage sector, which means there has to be a wave of forced sales at some point. The ONLY way that doesn't happen is with massive, unprecedented, government intervention... possible, but they already don't have enough cash to bail out the failing banks, so how will they bail out every realtor, refinance specialist and tech guru that is currently behind on their mortgage?
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Exactly, what do you call a "homebuilder" that decides to no longer build homes? They can either keep building, knowingly creating a glut, OR they can stop building and send everybody home...causing mass unemployment and thus lower prices anyway. When rates go up, they really have no great options. This happened in Southern California in the 90s. The builders went crazy and oops they created a glut. From what I see, some builders are a bit smarter than others this time around and have already switched to building smaller homes, and row houses/townhomes (triple-siamesed Mcmansions). I think that will buy them time, but profits on those homes cannot possibly be the same.
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