Comments by "The Asian Jaywalker" (@theasianjaywalker4455) on "China Observer"
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So far, these are my best explanations:
- Population shrink is greater than anyone is letting on. There are, literally, physically less people.
- Far far more grandparents and old aunties are dying off and many of those in their 60s.
- At the same time, the vast overbuilding of GDP bloating communities has dispersed the populations too far away.
- in 2025, its not just that younger people no longer like Spring Festival or have less aunties and grandparents to visit (or none to visit) or that there are far far more divorces making family reunions uncomfortable OR that many are uncomfortable returning somewhere to be humiliated by a lack of family, marriage, no children (this is a massive deep issue at Spring Festivals) but they are really in 'Survival Mode'.
They have to go two full weeks, half a month without any earnings. They are actually in Beijing but they have set up two bowls of rice, don't use heaters, blanket up, keep any expense to full minimums, eat a little meat and just try and get through the financial darkness and hope to climb back out after its over. (then they are 2 weeks behind on basics).
They are in an apartment trying to go without 2 weeks worth of income.
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I've often thought China was 50 years behind in 'culture'. Even today, I hear many 60 year old building managers talk about who has the tallest buildings? How CHina has even more 50 floor buildings that the USA! Another was disappointed as he thought Europe was so advanced but when he visited there were only a few skyscrapers, so few, so poor!?
but as this video shows us, in fact, high-rises and skyscrapers were a thing of New York (or other modern nations) in the 1970s era but by the time the Twin Towers were finishing - Americans were already complaining about them. more writers wrote articles on how socially unhealthy these 50 story buildings were. People who had money did NOT want to buy a 30th floor top apartment but (as noted in the video) would spent their money on a 'brownstone' 3 floor 'walkup' and renovate it.
In fact, much of Europe has really 'banned' buildings past 20 or so floors. They found they block the sun and create a grand 'darkness' for everyone else living outside the 30+ floor giant monoliths.
Yes, they look 'cool' and in the 1970s it was like a 'show of your national wealth' or some kind of fantasy of the 'tallest in the world' was some bragging rights.
but China is still in this '1970s' phase where that's the highest number one thing! Its the 'highest money lifestyle!' thing.
and its true that across North America and the UK you notice, these days, the highrises are for the poorer people, refugees, the poorer working class folks, not because they love it but that's sort of the lower rent living places.
*mind you, New York still builds exclusive skyscrapers and their primary buyers? wealth Saudi Arabians and wealthy Chinese mainlanders! They are not actually that popular with native-born New Yorkers.
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China does indeed use communist flag red and it does not have the same appeal as it does to their eyes. They made everything that color red in the 2008 Olympics and it literally caused so much dismay, 'feelings of danger or oppression or hell' from focus groups that the Olympics mandated all future color schemes must include blue and green.
Besides the red, I don't know HOW they manage to do this but everything else looks so ugly. small lettering, the graphic and visual presentation looks like 'anti-intuition', dull, technical labels, bleak, I can't really explain it but they do this to everything so the presentation from colors to space to lettering looks so 'nothing, minimal, bleak, governmental'.
Anyway there are other problems but seriously the entire look and feel of their section just says "don't bother coming to this unappealing zone of refrigerator box boring ugly graphics and colors.
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Sorry but this is something I find very annoying in China, a country who's governnor now 'Live for The West' and 'keeping up appearances' to the outside world and let me explain in this example:
a few months ago, a series of videos and news reports went viral around and inside Mainland China about the surprisingly empty cinemas. Not only that but the bankruptcy (or impending ones). These caught on all over the outside-world internet and weren't some 'viral' story but it was a little news cycle/social media topic for a few days.
oh oh.
Here comes this stupid thing. Oh ya.. okay.. so you say China have SMALL Audience Thewest!? haha okay we show you! We make BIG AUDIENCES and make 48 hour news cycle show TheWest the POWER OF CHINA is the OPPOSITe of how they shamed us! We shame them!
Its jussssst such a 1-D brain dullar move but here it goes. Yes indeed this is absolutely correct, to show us the 'power' they will control and make videos of crammed theaters, show Chinese overflowing cinemas! now we have 'punched back' even stronger than we were punched!!!
Every student has to go to the cinema on some class field trip. Every corporation is instructed to do this as a company event, then some banners need to be involved. Ja yoe! add oil! see which company can out-do the other in enthusiasm and attendance!
I can't stand these things. yes of course the numbers are bogus, have *asterisks and aren't what they seem.
They never kickstart the cause either. 2 weeks later, cinema will be as empty as ever before.
there is no natural need ro want to return to cinemas and they're still too expensive for a lot of struggling Chinese these days.
I mean great that people enjoy the movie but just saying these things are often annoyingly contrived social 'keeping up appearances' after all.
btw, on the ground I just don't see the 'mania' for this. Girls aren't wearing backpacks, they aren't going on about it, boys don't seem to care about this.
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Around 10 years ago China went full-entry on absolutely every high school grad they could lure onto a university campus. If you were breathing you were accepted and stuffed in a dorm room and most played video games for 3 and 4 years in a kind of break from life and 'come down' from the insane Gaokao exam pressures (though, by that point you didn't need a high score and you'd still go somewhere).
The results have been an utterly astonishing number of landscape engineer diplomas, In the last 5 and 6 years, many who were finishing a typical 'bachelors' (whatever 3, 4 years diploma) realized there won't be any proper office jobs for them and so er-enrolled into Masters, Phd (so, really they are just sort of biding time, refuge, hoping that will do it) but its almost worse for them as 20 million doctors had the same idea.
you have to figure this too: Now they are 27, 29... turning 30 years old. They do NOT know much about labor jobs, they aren't skilled 10-years veteran handimen, construction workers, carpenters AND besides they're turning 30. labor would hire a novice 18 years old full of dirt-digging vigor not a 30 years old college grad.
But Wait... it gets worse. indeed, lots of these office jobs are deliberately firing 30+ years olds now.
This is a 'face' idea in China where maybe a restaurant wants only tall, pale and pretty young people. They figured out 30+ year olds want 'job jobs' with some livable monthly salary and predicable hours etc. Fire them, hire some 19 year old who's just happy to be there for the most minimum of wages and work 80 hrs a week and do what you tell them to do.
Its bad.
now there are small armies of 32 year old delivery drivers with a masters degree and the delivery gig is no longer able to be considered "just a cash gig to get by.. until I can decide on where I'm going to work, TenCent or a government job". Oh no, they are now having to admit this IS their job for 9 more years until they're knees give out from climbing stairs 30 times a night and they'll be replaced by a 28 year old.
If Chinas government ever needs to fear a particular civil uprising? Armies of these delivery drivers revolting will be utterly fierce, notthing to live for - not afraid to die. be afraid.
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China's mainland has a three-part health risk problem.
- despite all the advancements over 2 decades the food safety, I mean the natural kinds of problems, e-Coli, salmonella, food, bacteria, very unclean cooking standards, pests, vermin, worms is STILL shockingly bad in far too many places and cases.
- Squeezing in with that is the problem of 'fake foods', chemical fillers, poisons in foods, contamination of metals and other inedible substances. btw I do NOT mean 'chemicals' the way health nuts in 1st world countries mean it, i mean chemicals like kerosene or lab chemicals unrelated to any kind of food usages.
Now those two compete to get people sick but there is a terrible 3rd which how a world of fake medicine, fake therapy, fake cure does not stop being promoted like its real. I don't mean this in the way some California goes to a goofy holistic medicine but I mean hospitals in China giving people bogus 'chinese herbal medicine' and acupuncture and then boxes of smoke and convincing themselves that actually China cured the 'American Virus' by once again herbal remedies and TCM that the world is jealous of and grovels to know China's powerful healing formulas etc.
This is notorious among village aunts and uncles but its actually shocking just how many younger people in China are utterly convinced the foolish world and their hospitals can't understand the godlike healing powers of Chinese special techniques.
but no, actually that box of mushroom smoke is not actually going to cure the cancerous growth by 'rebalancing hot and cold water' and this shlt.
As for the caner part here. yes this probably will happen because just a decade ago, we recall and uncle dying of cancer. I knew it was cancer. The cancer actualy grew outside his own skin before he died of cancer. Just 10 years ago the villagers "knew" he had too much 'heat' in the area because he frequently drank very cold water on very hot days. to my memory there was not 'post mortem' and just 10 years ago they still simply put them outside and carry out the burial. no doctors were ever involved. So, there is no such registration of a cancer death.
HOWEVER,
In fact, now they ARE starting to have hospital engagement and doctors verify who died and what they died from. 10 years ago almost NOBODY ever died from ANY diseases (since nothing is registered as such other than deceased) but all were reported to have died from 'drinking hot/cold water and imbalance of heat' I'd assume, only thing i ever heard of,
so, you WILL now start getting a huge uptick in cancer deaths .. since... well since they just officially report them not that there is more.
the next problem is, as mentioned, WAY TOO MANY Chinese will dick around for months and months putting 'smoke boxes' and drinking buckets of lemongrass and frog tea and by the time they realize the cancer is obviously getting much much worse they seek treatment at a 'western hospital'. but its now too late.
Many of those will have been cancer that COULD have been caught and stopped and stalled in most any other culture and country but instead will only get proper treatment when it's months or years too late.
and that's my take on it.
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Ultimately, nobody can ever know the truth but there are some major observations and calculations that strongly conclude 'beyond a reasonable doubt' that China's population is easily below 1 Billion. Maybe as LOW as 800 million but most seem to aggregate it to around 970 million. Why? 1000 different measures but some of them:
- The Shanghai Data Leak (err.. probably not actually 'hackers' but a vengeful leak during the Shanghai gang persecutions).
This is so massive that still 1000s of of online volunteers are combing through it and it seems impossible to calculate over 1 billion people from this.
- People think this sounds funny but many exporters carefully note things like salt (no, seriously) tampons, baby formula and 100 other things China imports that are reliable indicators of a living person.
- Seemingly simplistic but: Google Earth. Nope, not just nerds trying to 'count people' from the sky but what they can do is monitor how (example) 20 rural villages were removed at least 3 years ago. Replaced with industrial farmland. They can even see "20 villages worth of newly opened high-rises" in a nearby city. However, China's official numbers STILL count the population of that rural area AS IF those people still live there AND then the real people who've moved to the city.
- Officially China has agreed it's previous census over-counted and there are some wacky reasons for that and yes they blame local governments for doing it. So they will say, yes, there was a 200 million overcount back then, 15 years ago, agreed!
YET,
While ammending that number at that time, they do NOT amend the following years. If you see what I mean, they carry on estimating population grown AS IF that '200 million' must have still existed, had 1.8 children. I suck at math but you get the idea, the math is screwed up and can't be right.
While it's true that no single given area can conclude the entire nation, we do things like count the decline in NEW kindergarten signs-ups which have been consistently less and less for going on 5 straight years.
Then we make a dog-walk game of counting lights or activity in the apartments or hotels around our neighborhood. 20% occupancy, this might be 50% but that one is still seemingly 100% unoccupied like it was 3 years ago.
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Yep, while I feel for a lot of honest hardworking Chinese I can tell you that in 2016, when they pretended America was 'starting a Trade War' with China (in fact, Trump only ever responded to their 20 year long trade war) but the number of these students at the time, the sneering, the twisted glee, the arrogant pre-boasting of how.. and this was the phrase... "Hehe now China will punish Trump!". Smirking grins about how the USA was about to be 'Punished' for daring to try and fight God-Nation China.
Nowwww the USA will learn it's lesson and be punished. the sneering grins.
This disgusting arrogance, the "Now CHINA is the Captain NOW!!" , the arrogance so grotesque they believe they can command reality to change if they wanted to make the 'USA Virus' become believed by all.
PLENTY of these now unemployed 30 years olds were, just 10 years ago, many just 5 years ago and STILL many today think nothing of boasting about God China and how they will 'punish' everyone and fantasizing about 'The West' now being humiliated by their Godlike superiority as they grovel and squirm at what they deserve from GodChina.
Funny but it only took a few years of NOT giving them lots of money, aid, special charity status and lower standards and their already a little less certain they will 'Punish The West' immediately.
But, they STILL believe that 'soon', eventually, Chinagod WILL make them have more money than 'The West' and punish them and Japan and India and ... not now. but its prophecy, it WILL happen eventually.
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I would like some of the under-employed to ask themselves if, 7 years ago, they remember doing things like:
- Smirking about how China would punish the USA
- Chuckling about how the USA and The West were drooling with jealousy and little cowards scared of Godchina.
- Calling something 'The American Virus'
- Self-congratulating themselves for already surpassing the USA to be number one!
- Getting into masturbatory fervor about smashing the 'roaches' in Hong Kong and then punishing Japan?
- Crowing about how Trump was going to get forced to his knees and peed on as punishment for DARING to challenge China.
etc, etc, etc,
For those who were doing such things, maybe you want to stop and think about that for a minute or two. Was it really a great idea that the MOMENT all the Western money, Western investment, the USA and 'The West' started to bring you to modern standards you decided 'HEHEHE NOW WE THE CAPTAIN NOW!!" and reveal that actually now we don't need you anymore and will PUNISH YOU!
Was that actually a good plan, after all?
Maybe, let me suggest: Maybe that kind of shltty Haitian boat pirate attitude wasn't actually a good move and might even be one of the singled dumbest, most embarrassing, most face-losing, public shaming Low IQ choice any people have ever made in recent world history?
and for the many hardworking Chinese who didn't participate in that disgusting display: Sorry for you. I just hope you don't have to keep paying for what a bunch of rubbish Xiao-ren countrymen did to everyone.
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So far, these are my best explanations:
- Population shrink is greater than anyone is letting on. There are, literally, physically less people.
- Far far more grandparents and old aunties are dying off and many of those in their 60s.
- At the same time, the vast overbuilding of GDP bloating communities has dispersed the populations too far away.
- in 2025, its not just that younger people no longer like Spring Festival or have less aunties and grandparents to visit (or none to visit) or that there are far far more divorces making family reunions uncomfortable OR that many are uncomfortable returning somewhere to be humiliated by a lack of family, marriage, no children (this is a massive deep issue at Spring Festivals) but they are really in 'Survival Mode'.
They have to go two full weeks, half a month without any earnings. They are actually in Beijing but they have set up two bowls of rice, don't use heaters, blanket up, keep any expense to full minimums, eat a little meat and just try and get through the financial darkness and hope to climb back out after its over. (then they are 2 weeks behind on basics).
They are in an apartment trying to go without 2 weeks worth of income.
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Can I clear something up about all of these graduates, these diploma holders, these Masters degrees in Mainland China?
For at least a decade, and please believe me I know this intimately, as my own job, for a decade now:
- Like many things in China, a lot of university degrees are just superficial nonsense. They are cheap plastic toys in quality, they are often just outright 'counterfeit' but there is also a problem of massive over-production on levels that would even make the insane overabundance of diiplomas in the western world surprised.
Many of them did not work hard either. Unlike some other countries, Chinas students actually go through homework and exam score hell through their primary and eventually 'Gaokao' exams. University? those kids flop over that campus gate like a marathon runner falls over the finish line.
Thats the Finish Line for them. They fall down, exhale, they MADE IT and now they play video games and glue into the phone for the next 4-8 years and in a real way they see it like this:
I already did this. I made it to the (choose major) diploma. I got it! Now, its just a case of waiting 4 or 5 or 7 years until they give me that paper I have already earned.
For a MASSIVE number of those graduates that is what this is. They couldn't actually do 'the thing itself' beyond what most could google and fake their way through anyway.
I don't blame any students either. 10 years ago they ram-crammed any student who was living and breathing into campuses and now there are 100 million Landscape Designers ... well so the Design Engineering diploma says so.
I don't blame them.
but seriously this is why very little of this can ever translate into any kind of actualy career of any substance.
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@daveg-Vancouver_Island No, not really.
We can do it this way: Lets say you lose your Canadian passport and find yourself stranded in an international airport 'counryless'.
no joke, this has actually happened to people
but GOOD NEWS! the UN met and finally 2 countries agreed to give you a passport. There is a condition: whichever one you take, you must agree to live there the rest of your life and any family.
(fine, you get 2 weeks vacation a year) but you really have to stay, live and work and retired in the nation you choose.
USA or Netherlands.
Even before you finished reading this you know that you'd choose the USA.
Yes indeed you would because among other things, there is nothing in The Netherland you could not find in the USA anyway. Heck, you can even find enclaves of the many Dutch who immigrated to the USA. You can have all the tall big-headed people, foods, wear wooden shoes, be weirdly arrogant and paint trim in your houses in the USA.
but yes, you would choose the USA passport. You did in your mind, You know it andI know it.
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