Comments by "MarcosElMalo2" (@MarcosElMalo2) on "Russia's new forever war in Ukraine, 11MAR2022" video.

  1. It’s 2 May today. I do not see how Russia can achieve any political goals at this point. The original goals are unreachable. What intermediate goals are achievable? A land grab? The Ukrainians get a vote on that and Kyiv has made it clear that it will not trade land for peace. As of the last week and a half the west is arming Ukraine with offensive weapons at the same time that Russia is trying to reorganize its forces and grab up as much territory it can in Eastern Ukraine. Expect the Ukrainian counter offensive to occur when Russia has exhausted its own offensive capabilities. If the Ukrainians are successful, they will expel Russia sooner rather than later. Everyday, Ukraine’s hand at the negotiating table gets stronger and Russia’s hand gets weaker. The Russians might even lose Crimea, although some would say that is going too far. Anyway, this summer will see whether Ukraine can fight an offensive war and how well the Russian’s can defend their territorial gains. Russia cannot win. if the Ukrainians are successful, we will see Russia lose sooner rather than later. An attritional war against civilians is not going to work against Ukraine. I agree with Andes that the war is pointless for Russia. Putin has lost his gamble. The war is continuing based on its own moment and according to Russian domestic politics; Putin promised the Russians a victory, and the longer he prolongs the war, the longer he prolongs his own domestic power. It’s hard to imagine Putin clinging to power after Russia loses.
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  2. Russia will be forced to leave sooner or later. Current events suggest it will be sooner.
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  3. I agree completely. The Russians’ goals are unachievable and they are scrambling to find more modest ones to justify the war. It’s a war in search of a reason, following its own momentum. The only reason Putin continues is because defeat undermines him domestically. He will cling to power with great difficulty after Russian defeat, and he will be greatly diminished if he manages to stay in power.
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