Comments by "MarcosElMalo2" (@MarcosElMalo2) on "Bad assumptions and the belief in Russian victory" video.

I avoided forming an opinion until the first 72 hours passed. After that, it was clear that Russia would fail to achieve a quick victory. And it seemed to me that even if Russia could eventually achieve a military victory over Ukraine’s standing army, it couldn’t successfully occupy Ukraine. Ukraine would be a constant drain on Russia’s limited resources. This wouldn’t be a repeat of the mighty Red Army rolling across Eastern Europe in 1945, subverting each country it occupied. If I take a cynical view, I think a slow Ukrainian victory suits the West. Russia might be able to make a recovery if it were to negotiate a withdrawal today and leave tomorrow, but the longer this conflict continues, the worse it will be for Russia long term in all respects. Perhaps greatest of all will be the psychic shock Russia will suffer. There is a saying, “You reach the bottom when you stop digging.” Russia is determined to keep digging.
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@GolemRising I’ll third the Perun suggestion. When I recommend his channel to people, I advise them not to be put off by the length of Perun’s videos. He has a unique approach in presenting topics that are generally to be found in specialized academia (military policy, economics, geopolitics).
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@borgazvoda7590 That the 8 million ethnic Russians in Ukraine hate Ukraine is another one of those faulty assumptions that you cling to despite evidence to the contrary. This minority 5th column didn’t rise up as promised. Even now, those most committed to separating from Ukraine in the Donbas are rethinking their positions.
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@mihai2526 you use propaganda and tell them that the wooden shoes are skis.
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@blackcatdungeonmastersfami5311 Are you consciously lying to spread disinformation, or are you giving us an example of clinging to faulty assumptions?
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@curioussand1339 It’s more than being mindful about antagonizing other NATO countries. Ukraine’s case for joining is the strongest it’s ever been. But it’s not a slam dunk and even after this war ends, however it ends, it’s a lengthy process to become a member of NATO. Finland and Sweden will be accepted rapidly because they have been preparing for the possibility of membership for decades. The idea that NATO has schemed for Ukraine to join is another one of Putin’s false justifications. He might even believe it, but it would still be false.
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A very concise and more general formulation is “Man plans and God laughs”.
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@nian60 You don’t know much about NATO. Honestly, you don’t. You make it sound so simple, and it is very far from simple. You use the example of Turkey and Hungary to argue that “anyone can join”. Turkey was the second nation to join after NATO’s founding. They joined in 1952 (early in the Cold War). After Hungary joined in 1999 (along with Poland and the Czech Republic), NATO members approved more stringent requirements and codified a lengthy process to apply for membership. You might ask why Finland and Sweden are being fast tracked. The reason why is that both countries have prepared for joining for decades. They’ve always kept the option open, and very little needs to be done to conform to NATO requirements. (And despite this, Sweden still has to overcome the objections of Turkey.) Ukraine has also taken preparatory steps over the past 8 years, but it still has a ways to go, plus it needs the approval of all NATO members. Ukraine might eventually join, but it’s not a certainty. After the war with Russia is over, they might decide that full fledged membership is unnecessary.
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Vietnam has resisted incursions from powerful nations for many centuries, in fact.
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The one fly in the ointment regarding Russian mobilization and “stealth mobilization” is that Russia is now facing 40% unemployment. With so many unemployed workers, we might see many workers enticed by enlistment offers.
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I’ve been thinking along similar lines. There is also the possibility of a multi front counteroffensive. However, the main counter-argument is that it seems unlikely that Ukraine would begin its main counteroffensive too close to winter. I could also imagine feinting at Kherson, feinting at Izyum, then fully committing to attacking the Russians at Kherson. Despite all this speculation, I think we are already seeing the start of the counteroffensive in Kherson. Ukraine has done a lot of preparation and shaping of the battlefield (including suppression of air defenses), and is bringing out its Air Force. Which is not to say that Ukrainian forces in other parts of the country won’t take opportunities as they find them while Russia shifts resources to the south west.
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It might be impossible to rid oneself of all bias. I think the best we can do is to constantly search for them within ourselves, weeding out what is truly virulent, and adjusting others as necessary. A bias can merely be a preference, it can cloud our judgement, and in some cases a bias can fill us with hate. But most important is that first step of recognizing that we all have biases (and assumptions and paradigms).
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The French and the U.S. were apparently unaware that Vietnam has resisted incursions for centuries. China really should have known better. That said, an argument could be made that, while China’s nose was bloodied, they fulfilled the larger aim of curbing any imperial ambitions that the Vietnamese might have had vis-a-vis Laos and Cambodia. (Don’t take this as gospel, though. This is my opinion/analysis involving a certain amount of reading between the lines. I wouldn’t swear that Vietnam had any such ambitions or that China thought they did.)
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@CyberBeep_kenshi With all the billions in aid Ukraine is receiving, I have wondered what would happen if some of the money were used to bribe Russian soldiers. It needn’t be cash, it could be the offer of a vacation. A weekend at Disneyland in California, followed by a week in Vegas including free hookers and poker chips. I think this would be an effective use of some of the cash (you could negotiate a package deal), plus it would put money back into the U.S. economy. If they wanted to opt for Disney World in Florida, they could even keep their rifles and no one would think it out of the ordinary.
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It’s not “fine”, but it’s the safer between the two. However, overestimation does have a cost: investments made based on your miscalculation mean you can’t invest those resources more effectively to further other aims.
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Why do you take the humorous example so seriously? Oh, wait. I understand. 😆 A friend of mine once said, “I’m not a stubborn and humorless jerk. First of all, you’re not that funny. Secondly, I’m Dutch.”
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@waynesmith7746 That’s the cynical mindset of these Putinists. They think they can keep ill-gotten gains with bribes. It’s the mentality of criminals—everyone else is either a criminal or a victim. You can negotiate with other criminals if both you and they are strong and you can impose your will on victims with violence. “Might makes right”. It’s the underlying principle of a tattered ideology that fascists use to justify their criminality. They don’t believe in equality or liberty or a society governed by laws. Furthermore, they don’t think we truly believe in those principles. They think it’s just another con, and that we are just as much criminals as they are. “Be reasonable and take your cut, Poland.” I don’t know if these Putinists are aware that their proposal mirrors the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. If they do see a parallel, they think they get to play the role of Nazi Germany this time around. Do they not remember what happened to Germany?
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@smillner771 I don’t know how legitimate that grievance is, because much of it has been generated by Russian intelligence services. Regardless, if there were a legitimate negotiation about the separatist provinces in Donbas, it should be between the separatists and the Ukrainian government. (And I believe both sides are closer to sitting down to seek an arrangement than ever before.) The idea that all ethnic Russians in Ukraine want Ukraine to merge with Russia is belied by the evidence. Only a minority want this, a minority of a minority. Many Russian Ukrainians heroically resisted the invasion from day one.
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@nobodyherepal3292 bawlz
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