Comments by "MarcosElMalo2" (@MarcosElMalo2) on "Is Russia winning? -- 30MAY2022" video.

  1.  @ivansytsev2581  Yes, Naval and amphibious capabilities, PLUS air superiority. For this type of operation you need control of the air, perhaps supremacy of the air.
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  2. I heard one commentator (who is pro Ukraine) say something like the following, “At this time, what is the motivation for Putin to leave? Why wouldn’t he keep his forces in Ukraine for as long as possible, in the hopes that he’ll get something out of it.” Its very frustrating to hear this, but it is true. What does Putin have to lose? He doesn’t value human life. He’s got nukes, so the loss of equipment isn’t a large issue. Plus he has lots more obsolete equipment rusting in storage, for internal suppression.
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  3.  @anderspuck  Your last point is the strongest. It would give Putin justification for tactical nukes and full mobilization. I think the only possibility for Russia to lose Crimea is by internal events in Russia. It is impossible to predict what might happen, let alone control any such events, so we should not put any faith in the possibility that some perfect storm will occur.
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  4. I don’t think its completely delusional, just mostly delusional. 1) I don’t think Ukraine’s military is sufficiently strong. 2) I think Putin would use tactical nukes to defend Crimea. 3) the geographical challenges are great. That said, 1) the Ukraine might (eventually) take a portion, 2) Threatening Crimea (from Kherson, if Kherson is retaken by Ukraine) will draw Russian forces away from other areas. 3) Longer term, when the peace is being negotiated, there would be an impetus to create a DMZ in the northern part of Crimea, with international peace keepers. Maybe the biggest factor is the least predictable: what happens inside the Kremlin, inside Russia, and inside the other Republics of the Federation. As this is totally unpredictable, we shouldn’t become invested in the notion, but its a tiny possibility that Russian internal events will lead to the loss of Ukraine. One can imagine all sorts of scenarios, including a perfect storm of scenarios, but don’t bet the family farm on it. I suspect/predict that there will be peacekeepers in Eastern Donbas as well, as part of a negotiated settlement.
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