Comments by "MarcosElMalo2" (@MarcosElMalo2) on "Ukraine counteroffensive: Can Kyiv push the Russian army back? | To the Point" video.

  1. With regard to Russia buying computer chips from China, it’s not that simple. Even if the PRC hasn’t joined the sanctions regime, Chinese companies that export their products to the West could find themselves cut off from important markets if they sell to Russia. If less than 10% of your business is to Russia, and 60% is to Europe and North America, you’d think twice before selling technology to Russia. Of course, one could try to sell via a cut out subsidiary or some sort of middleman, but it’s not as easy to hide these channels as it once was. The main problem, though, is that China itself is 5-10 years behind Taiwan and South Korea. Russia won’t have access to the same capabilities being shared with Ukraine.
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  2. Ukraine has spent the past two weeks preparing the battlefield, and the past two months probing Russian defenses. Supply lines and supply depots have been disrupted. Air defenses have been degraded—Russia never had air supremacy in the area (the ability to fly at will and unchallenged) and only had limited air superiority. Going off publicly available information, we can say that the airspace is contested. UKR has been training new recruits for the past 6 months, and they’ve been keeping most in reserve. Same with many weapons that don’t receive press like HIMARS or long range artillery does. You know, the less “sexy” equipment. There’s a good possibility that UKR has the 3:1 numerical advantage, depending on how many soldiers they’ve been able to train. Russia might have been able to move more forces to Kherson, but they risk being under-defended on other fronts. It’s even possible that Kherson is a feint to pull Russian forces to the South, creating opportunities in the North and East. (I think Kherson is the real target, but I’m keeping an eye on Izyum.)
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  3. You can rightfully decide if it’s a valid excuse, but I think most of us understand the historical basis for Germany’s early reluctance. And let’s be honest, the German defense forces have been a shitshow for over 20 years. Frankly, I’m surprised that Germany is turning around as quickly as it is.
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  4.  @aaronbaker2186  Russia has already lost its larger strategic aims wrt Europe, and every day this conflict drags on, it inflicts economic damage on itself. Germany’s dependence on Russian oil is a weapon Putin can only use once, and the temporary pain it causes is outweighed by the long term pain it inflicts on itself.
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  5. Ukraine needs local numerical superiority of 3:1. That’s the basic rule of thumb for attackers vs defenders. 4:1 is better, etc. I think Ukraine has the numbers. They’ve been training hundreds of thousands soldiers for five or six months now, and the bulk of those soldiers haven’t shown up on the battlefield. They’ve spent the last two weeks shaping the battlefield, making it difficult for Russia to reinforce and resupply Kherson. Ukraine isn’t guaranteed success, but their chances are pretty good. It will be costly, though. Let’s have no illusions about that. A lot of soldiers on both sides are going to die.
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  6. Agreed. Ironically, Russia is doing this to itself. It is in fact solving the problem of Russian aggression by engaging in it and rallying the West. Putin is expending Russia on Ukraine and it will not easily recover from this strategic blunder.
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  7.  @clarkkent4075  Are you still peddling that tired old bull poop? Please, you’re insulting everyone’s intelligence.
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  8. Then you are only seeing what you want to see. The truth is we just don’t know—and that was discussed in this forum.
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  9. The truth is they don’t know. Only UKR defense forces know, and even that will be estimates for now. The proof will be in the pudding, as the English say, and it is way too early for that.
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  10. That would take years, maybe even a decade, and cost tens of billions.
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  11.  @patverum9051  And what was the budget?
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  12.  @haroldbell213  A giant mechanical badger!! lol! Controlled by the circuitry of a Roomba, because Russia has been cut off from Western technology.
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  13. That’s an endgame consideration. Unfortunately, I think we are far from the end game.
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  14. Or maybe this is the first counter offensive and it just started.
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  15. There is plenty of that on other programs. Some of it is good quality, some of it is bad. The focus of this program is bigger picture and is more about “national attitudes”. I’m sure these journalists are getting briefed by military experts, but they don’t want to get too far into the details. They seem to be asking more questions than offering answers. This is frustrating, but that’s where we are. The future is unwritten.
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  16.  @patverum9051  Exactly. It’s very hard to hide. Do these pro Russians imagine cash transactions? Money has to go through the exchanges. Those that aren’t controlled by the West are still monitored, even cryptocurrency exchanges.
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