Comments by "MarcosElMalo2" (@MarcosElMalo2) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics"
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@godschild6694 I’d be fine if he backed it up with educated opinion as to where Pete fell short. Pete made a 13 minute summary of the history of the area. There’s bound to be a lot of stuff left out. Also, Pete isn’t an expert on the area (he can’t be an expert on everything—he’s a very good generalist with broad knowledge), so he might be missing important detail or nuance.
So I don’t expect Pete to be perfect. But like you, if someone who is an expert wants to criticize the presentation, I’d like some details about where Pete gets it wrong.
This region of the world has a complicated political history that puts the Balkans/former Yugoslavia to shame. Like Tito did in Yugoslavia, the Soviets kept a lid on centuries of ethnic and religious strife. Before the Soviets, Armenia and Azerbaijan were under the thumb of the Ottoman Empire (the Turks). Armenia suffered greatly under the Turks (including the 20th Century’s first genocide), and I don’t think they ever recovered. The Soviets offered Armenians protection and some limited opportunities (including opportunities in the lucrative industry of state corruption under communism).
The smartest, most entrepreneurial, most ambitious, and most educated Armenians have been fleeing the mother country for more than a century, forced out by the Turks first, and later escaping communist oppression. If I look at the successes and prosperity the Armenians of the diaspora have achieved in their adoptive countries, I wonder what could have been achieved in Armenia if they hadn’t been forced to leave.
I suspect that the bot you responded to isn’t really a bot. It’s someone who is pro-Armenian, who grew up hearing the history from the Armenian perspective, and who isn’t ready to hear anything that challenges his world view. He really needs to hear different perspectives if he is to form a strategy for Armenia based on reality, but I don’t think he will because the Armenians are a proud people. But pride goeth before a fall.
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@mfisher1952 This has been an ongoing issue for the Russians, and now a bigger related problem is ripening. Basically, the NCO problem you mention is a matter of small unit cohesion, but in Bakhmut and Vuledar, we are seeing larger units destroyed. A unit that takes 20% causalities can be replenished and still fight effectively. A unit that takes 50% or more and then replenished with fresh troops cannot. Ukraine has been able to rotate units into and out of hot spots, preventing exhaustion and preserving unit cohesion. They’ve been very effective at preserving the reserve units to prevent breakthroughs. Where necessary, tactical withdrawals to prepared defenses (such as at Soledar) have been successful.
Meanwhile, Russia is expending its most elite forces in Bahkmut. It’s been doing this from the beginning, but it’s now reached a new level. The VDV is spent. Wagner is spent. The Russian Marines are spent. Bakhmut still stands, but even if it falls, Ukraine is well positioned defensively to stave off further breakthroughs. Offensively, Russia is nearly a spent force. When the ground dries and the tanks arrive from the West, we will see how effective they are on the defense.
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