Comments by "MarcosElMalo2" (@MarcosElMalo2) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics"
channel.
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@HighBoss let us not forget that Ukraine has its own intelligence service and its own intelligence gathering capabilities. Thus the U.S. could inform their Ukrainian counterparts, “Moskva heading your way at such and such a heading and speed”, and Ukraine could take it from there. It’s a matter of knowing where to look, and the U.S. could provide that information without providing targeting data. It’s completely within Ukraine’s capabilities to have drones in the right place at the right time to precisely determine where a target is.
With regard to targeting meetings of generals, Gerasimov might have a secure phone, but does everyone attending the meeting? I’m not even thinking of the other generals, but of their entourages, down to drivers and orderlies. If the Ukrainians were tracking IMEIs of officers’ drivers’ phones, they could just wait for them to all show up at the same place.
The name of the game here isn’t decryption, it’s metadata. The Ukrainians don’t need U.S. help for that if the Russians are using Ukrainian cel systems. But they would certainly find it helpful if the U.S. reported that Gerasimov was heading into Ukraine for a big meeting.
Amd just a reminder in general: there are some people from whom you might need to ask for help, but for various reasons, you want to ask sparingly. Among those reasons is to minimize your debt and obligation to those sorts of people. (I think the idea of being beholden to a U.S. intelligence agency sucks.)
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Of course there are, but note that Pete himself says he doesn’t know what Chinese collapse will look like, because the scale is unprecedented. When Pete makes these predictions, he’s looking at what the data is telling him about trends. When he gets into hard-to-predict territory and the unknown, he favors the worse case scenario as his best guess.
He is pretty bold with his predictions in general, but when there is uncertainty he says so. When there is more certainty on something, he gets specific—like his prediction that the collapse will begin by 2030 or earlier is specific. (And part of my enjoyment of Pete’s presentations is that he is willing to go out on a limb.)
Anyway, Pete’s strength and expertise, is demographic/economic analysis (let’s call it population, industrial and energy, and food inputs to an economy). He’s less strong in other aspects of geopolitics (imho) but is conversant in those aspects. Watch this video again (it’s worth it and not too long) and watch carefully for his specific claims and for his uncertainty. Pete often sounds over confident (and it’s true that he sometimes gets out of his specific lane), but he’s pretty clear about where he is certain and where he is uncertain.
And let me throw something out there. What if contraction of the global economy and the economic collapse of major countries IS the optimistic best case scenario?😮
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