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MarcosElMalo2
Zeihan on Geopolitics
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Comments by "MarcosElMalo2" (@MarcosElMalo2) on "The Beginning of the Fall of Crimea" video.
@jimduffield7822 Russian artillery works really well against civilian targets, I think we can all agree on that.
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@aldofromsf When? Eventually they will be forced out of Ukraine. But when and at what cost?
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Did you just say that, pre-1971, people had been happily living in Crimea for thousands of years? I think you’re skipping quite a bit of history there, even recent history. Perhaps you meant that they were living there without intensive agriculture before the canal. That would be a fair point, but it doesn’t answer the question, what were they living on? The fact is that they had to import food because Crimea has engaged in trade since the Bronze Age. As a major trading hub, they could afford it.
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Agreed. There’s too many exasperating comments from overly optimistic video game players. Crimea is going to be a touch nut to crack. Russian logistics can be hampered, but I see no evidence that supply lines will be cut any time soon. Nor do I see evidence that Ukraine will be on Crimea’s doorstep anytime soon, meaning there are at least months to prepare for a siege. Pete is incorrect wrt control of the Black Sea. Ukraine doesn’t control the sea lanes. It threatens Russian control, which is not the same thing. He’s incorrect that Russia needs to feed the population, or will even treat them humanely. They don’t and won’t. They can evacuate the civilian population and target everyone who stays. It should be obvious by now that they don’t care about war crimes. I think the biggest potential blunder is to assume your adversary is going to make the same mistakes over and over again. I realize we’re talking about Russia here, but that assumption can have disastrous consequences the one time it is wrong. I do not think Russia can hold Crimea forever. But it’s they’re not going to lose it quickly or easily. This is the bit of Ukraine they are most determined to hold. I will be happily surprised if Ukraine can take it back in 2023.
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@aldofromsf Because it’s a reasonable question to you when you are certain of the result. But don’t worry, I don’t expect a well thought answer from you.
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@alexjgilpin This. I think the strategic importance is to guard the mouth of the river and open up transport from Mykolaiv. It’s like clearing the banks of Scheldt so you can use the port of Antwerp.
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Keep using your imagination creatively. You might hit upon an original idea that also matches the facts! The initial attempt at Kyiv was to topple the government and install one friendly to the Kremlin. End of story.
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