Comments by "MarcosElMalo2" (@MarcosElMalo2) on "Implications of Rising Interest Rates" video.

The 30-year fixed rate hit 18% in early 1980s, and decreased to about 7% by the year 2000. Inflation peaked about the same time at 14%. At the time you got your first mortgage, inflation was at 2.75%. I don’t think we can say what is normal interest or normal inflation over the long term. At best we can say there has been a downward trend. Incidentally, one of the charts I just looked at noted that Paul Volcker was named Fed Chairman in 1979 and embarked on an anti-inflation campaign. I think I’ll have a look at what he did that began easing inflation, although I don’t think it will be directly applicable to our current situation. I’m going to take Peter’s claim about what the Fed is trying to do vis-a-vis international markets with a grain of salt, and take current Fed Chairman Jay Powell at his word. (His latest press briefing was yesterday—PBS Newshour has the full brief.) He is primarily attempting to avert persistent inflation. A secondary target is a soft landing for this weird recession we are in (and there’s your anomaly, because the job market is strong, etc.), but he expressed doubt that the Fed could land the economy softly. Maybe that is what Peter was talking about because when the U.S. is in a recession, the rest of the world feels it. Personally, I’m really glad I paid down my high interest credit card debt over the past six months. I plan to be pretty frugal this holiday season and avoid accumulating more debt. Good luck to y’all in the storm we are entering. I hope we see smooth sailing before too long.
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@zuster6962 In this job market, he can probably find a gig in less than two days. As far as that other stuff, I think you’re judging not by results but by conformity to your norms. He didn’t disclose his situation regarding family, etc., so you’re assuming. If you don’t know what the results are, it’s silly to compare them to your current results or your expectations. We GenXers know that stability is just one part of the equation. It is often overrated. It is often too narrowly defined to mean only financial stability. There is more than one way to live a happy life. I hope your life continues along a smooth trajectory of happiness, but remember that if your circumstances change drastically, you are infinitely adaptable and can find happiness in different forms.
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@mrwolf750 Long term, yes. Or at least that’s been the case in the U.S. since WWII. Real Estate, the stock market, etc suffer crises and then recover. Some unlucky people get hurt along the way. However, there are no guarantees this pattern will continue indefinitely. One thing seems very likely: China is taking a walloping in many economic sectors, and it will get worse. If this encourages them to play by the rules, great, but I don’t wish an economic collapse on them that would create regional political instability.
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Pricing of petroleum is set in the international market. If global supply is cut, prices go up. If demand is high, prices go up. The U.S. has plenty of petroleum and refining capacity, but unless you 1) create a separate controlled domestic market, OR 2) increase global supply by exporting enough to compensate for undersupply, your(our) gas and diesel prices are going to reflect the global market and remain high. The problem with 2) is it will take investment to export more petroleum, and it’s very difficult to determine when prices will reach a new equilibrium. That makes the investments in increased export capacity very risky. The problem with 1) is obvious, I hope.
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@dougg1075 Can I get a cutting from your hamburger tree? Just a hoof will do, thanks.
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Right on. I’ve learned to live very modestly. I’ve had some wild adventures on the road and now I’ve taken early retirement and moved to where I can get by comfortably on a fixed income. I’ve suffered a couple of material misfortunes that I experienced more as a lightening of the load than a painful loss. It’s all about attitude and adaptability. I feel fortunate. They called us slackers. That used to sting when I cared what they thought and tried to measure myself by their lifestyle standards.
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@johncalla2151 Pete dances around immigration a great deal because it’s a hot button political issue in the U.S. While his paying clients want to be startled by contrarian insights posed in a saucy manner, they don’t want to be associated with anyone wading into the bitter controversy surrounding immigration policy. I don’t fault Pete for being careful with his words. As far as fungibility of immigrants, Pete is using big data sets. It’s really the big numbers that matter. Prioritizing certain job skills or professions don’t make a dent in the overall trends. As far as using demographics to help predict consumption, I fail to see the problem. Remember, he combines his demographic curves with purchasing power.
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