Comments by "MarcosElMalo2" (@MarcosElMalo2) on "Peter Zeihan || The Ukraine War: Operational Updates" video.

  1. Pete is getting a bit too far out of his lane when he makes military assessments. It is true that Ukraine faces big challenges throughout the coming year, but it’s not true that Russia can win by grinding down Ukraine forces. This isn’t Russia’s war to lose. Russia has already lost. The question is really how quickly can Ukraine win and recover its sovereign territory. No one expected a Ukraine offensive before the muddy Spring Thaw, no one expects it during the thaw. Pete has a grasp of some basic operational concepts, like the weather, but glosses over others. It is true that Russia can and is throwing more bodies into the conflict, and it is true that “quantity has a quality of its own” as Stalin is reputed to have said. But it matters how and where those numbers are applied. It matters how motivated they are. It matters how they are supplied. So far, Russia’s superior numbers have made little progress over the past six months. Kilometers have come at the cost of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers, until entire battalions have been destroyed in offensive operations. At the same time, Ukraine has been rotating its defensive forces and maintaining unit cohesion. When Pete implies that Russia has an endless supply of soldiers and that the quantity of soldiers alone will determine the outcome, he is quite frankly incorrect. Frankly, it is surprising that he underestimates other important factors, such as logistics, home field advantage, and motivation/morale. Pete is trying to be realistic, but I think his appraisal is overly pessimistic.
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  2.  @mfisher1952  This has been an ongoing issue for the Russians, and now a bigger related problem is ripening. Basically, the NCO problem you mention is a matter of small unit cohesion, but in Bakhmut and Vuledar, we are seeing larger units destroyed. A unit that takes 20% causalities can be replenished and still fight effectively. A unit that takes 50% or more and then replenished with fresh troops cannot. Ukraine has been able to rotate units into and out of hot spots, preventing exhaustion and preserving unit cohesion. They’ve been very effective at preserving the reserve units to prevent breakthroughs. Where necessary, tactical withdrawals to prepared defenses (such as at Soledar) have been successful. Meanwhile, Russia is expending its most elite forces in Bahkmut. It’s been doing this from the beginning, but it’s now reached a new level. The VDV is spent. Wagner is spent. The Russian Marines are spent. Bakhmut still stands, but even if it falls, Ukraine is well positioned defensively to stave off further breakthroughs. Offensively, Russia is nearly a spent force. When the ground dries and the tanks arrive from the West, we will see how effective they are on the defense.
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