Comments by "MarcosElMalo2" (@MarcosElMalo2) on "F-16 Fighter Jets: Updates to Ukraine's Defense Strategy || Peter Zeihan" video.

⁠ @mortenovergaard7397 Airframes age out. The metal and joints become fatigued, lose their strength, and in some cases must be retired before they suffer a catastrophic failure. So even with excellent maintenance, eventually they must be replaced with the same model, an improved model, or something completely different. Denmark and the Netherlands are replacing their fleet with F-35s, so they’ve been retiring some planes even before they’ve reached maximum hours on their service life. It doesn’t make economic sense to maintain them so you put them in mothballs.
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It’s more likely that a small squadron or two could provide air defense for the cities. As more roll in, their roles will be expanded and they’ll go SAM hunting. I also wouldn’t put it past the Ukrainians to set some traps for Russian aircraft.
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You just don’t have enough to offer. That said, I would not be surprised if Ukraine eventually purchases a squadron or two of Gripen. It makes a versatile option for any country sharing a border with Russia. You might eventually see 200 F-16s and 30 to 50 Gripen as their main aerial weapons platforms. I’m talking about the time after hostilities cease. Ukraine isn’t going to instantly join NATO. There will be a period of unknown length when Ukraine and Russia will rearm—or try to—for a possible round 2. A strong capable Airforce that included the versatility of Gripen is a good deterrent against round 2.
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Even with excellent maintenance, airframes have a limited life. You have to replace them either with a similar model or with something new. As your country prepared to replace them with something new, it didn’t make sense to keep the older planes maintained. Indeed, some might have been well past their service life. I wonder if the Military Industrial Complex will someday operate on a subscription model. 😅
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@NathansHVAC which is why SEAD will be one of the earlier roles for these aircraft.
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What good are A-10s without top cover and air defense suppression? A-10s operate well when you have the rest the the USAF watching your six. Independently against a military that does have an AF and lots and lots of SAMs? Not so much.
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@peetky8645 That’s your source? Military surplus vehicles on auction sites?
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@taylorc2542 It didn’t happen because there aren’t surplus gripens. Whether or not these F-16s arrive quickly in sufficient numbers to fight in 2025, their real power will be keeping the peace after the conflict is over.
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@JJthename55 you and your finger puppet accounts are hilarious. I never thought an ass spelunker could be this funny, but you came through, especially when you agree with the other accounts you administer. Keep saving your rubles and you can afford to have a view port installed in your stomach. It’s called a window-ectomy, and it allows you to see where you’re going as you climb up your own ass in search of facts.
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More than anything this puts pressure on Russia wrt to long term geopolitical strategy. Short of joining NATO (with an uncertain timeframe), the second biggest security assurance is to arm the snot out of Ukraine’s Airforce. We know that in any peace deal, whether or not land is traded, Russia’s word is worthless. NATO membership might be fast tracked or it might be delayed (and rightfully claiming Ukraine while Russia holds it would cause a delay). This pledge of F-16s is a strong indicator that the Western Allies will support Ukraine for the long haul. Just don’t expect to see the F-16s on the front lines this winter. They will wait for sufficient numbers. Meanwhile, the fighter-bombers will perform air defense missions and perhaps start taking out SAM systems.
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@NLTops Russia has been arming, funding, inciting, and in some cases supplying the bodies. There have been little green men and GRU goons all over the Donbas since 2014. On top of that, Russian artillery was regularly performing fire missions to support the so-called “insurgents.
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@JW-qf2fx I hope that keeps you up at night.
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You’re ignoring the long term utility of having a large fleet of capable multirole aircraft like the F-16. This move signals that the West is in it for the long term, even after a peace deal is struck or if Russia gets pushed out, as it will sooner or later. I suspect large numbers of U.S. F-16s will be joining the planes from Denmark and Netherlands in 2024, a head of the U.s. November elections.
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