Comments by "Anders Juel Jensen" (@andersjjensen) on "How is the war going? — Mid August 2022" video.

That the airbase in Crimea "accidentally blew up" and that about 24 hours later a Russia controlled airbase in Belarus also had some kind of an "accident" seems to support the idea that Ukraine is turning up the heat by taking the initiative. I speculate that losing at least 15 jets stationed in Crimea (so within strike distance of Kherson) has somewhat changed the overall picture.
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Putin is not even close to holding a Flush as it is. The strike on the airbase deep inside Crimea two days ago has cost him at least 15 jets, 60 dead, 140 wounded, anti aircraft defences, radar equipment, and a lot of aircraft munitions in a single day... in a region they thought were well outside the reach of the Ukrainian forces. We still don't know what the damages are on the Russian "rented" airbase in Belarus that got hit yesterday... but I suspect something similarly grim. It's quite clear that Ukraine has "shifted gear" now so to speak. Their D-Day has begun alright, but they're not stupid enough to do a full frontal attack straight into fortified enemy positions.... but yes, if they manage to cut 25.000 troops completely off from supplies they're going to have a nation wide celebration. And even better if they can mange to make most of them surrender.
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He is a former officer of the Navy and is currently employed as an intelligence analyst at the military academy, so you can pretty much bet that he's had Russian language training. I wouldn't even blink if he tells us that he speaks fluent Russian.
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Or they want to achieve both... If Kherson is a strategic advantageous battle ground for them they might as well kill two birds with one stone: Get Donbas softened up because of troop reorganization AND get said troops into a sticky situation where they can't easily be supplied. I mean, a soldier is a lot less dangerous if he can only use his rifle as a club. So why not fight him in Kherson rather than Donbas if he's more likely to run out of supplies in Kherson?
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I'll hereby officially steal the phrase "Putin has a tiger by the tail" :P
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Putin has been told in no uncertain terms that if he nukes Ukraine the UK, the US and France will pre-emptively strike Russia with their entire arsenals of nukes.
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@alancx523 NATO does not want to escalate. But nuclear weapons have not been fired in anger since 1945 and there is a general mutual understanding that if it happens again nobody will like the outcome. That doesn't change the fact that I can assure you that if Putin makes nuclear fallout rain down on the rest of Europe there will be a response. The last response. On the other hand, Putin is adamant that attempts to invade Russia will be met with tactical nukes. And that's something most people think he should not be tested on. Where the mixed feelings lie is whether or not Putin will resort to nukes if NATO directly comes running to liberate Ukraine. Personally I think not. But NATO as a whole think it's not a chance that should be taken. And in the grand scheme of things I do agree it's better to err on the side of caution. He doesn't seem outright stupid to me, but there's certainly a level of ignorant stubbornness to him that should not be ignored either.
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@Thermopylae2007 Considering the Russians have lost quite a few planes and two very large ammo depots in the last 72 hours in Crimea... I think it's the Russians who'll end up not wanting a drawn out war. Also, what's this "crippled economy" business? Yes, inflation is high, but seriously, I don't know a single person who's in financial trouble over it. Our Saturday night steaks are getting smaller, and we're mindful of not buying unnecessary stuff. We're careful not to leave the light on in rooms which are unoccupied, and we'll probably turn the heat down and wear sweaters this winter... but we're in no way "crippled".
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So far the Ukrainians have suffered a lot less losses than the Russians. Both in terms of life, but most certainly also in loss of material. Making the Russians bleed dearly for every hundred meter of land they gain is a perfectly valid tactic as ultimately any war is about running the other guy out of funds. The days where you tried to get him to run out of men are long gone. That being said, it does look like they're switching gears and have started to actively draw out the Russians. Which makes sense. The Russians currently have bigger supply problems than they've ever had in this war, so it makes sense to fight them before they can fix that problem.
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@storozhevoy How the fuck did you get all that out of a comment poking fun of Russia's incredibly stupid claims that "no airplanes were lost" despite satellite photos showing 15 completely mangled aircraft?
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