Comments by "Anders Juel Jensen" (@andersjjensen) on "Losing on patriotism: Why Putin fears the ultranationalists" video.

  1. The sheer amount of heavy weaponry left behind in Kharkiv is practically "fatal losses". Sure, mothers won't grief right away, but Russia has just managed to arm Ukraine with about as much as they've been getting in aid. What has been photo documented so far, just from Iziym, includes 10 new and good T-80s, 15 T-72 of various upgrade levels, 4 GRADs, 14 152mm cannons (some drawn, some self propelled), 26 armoured personel carriers of various kinds and models, a multitude of different all-terrain heavy trucks, 2 TOR short range AA systems, 2 Artillery radar systems, 5 brand new drones (with instruction manuals), 3 large ammunition depots and many many smaller local caches, 7 full fuel trucks, several hundred RPG and small mortar systems and tens of thousands of rifle and machine gun rounds.... all of this will be turned into human losses for Russia in short order. If Ukraine overruns Donbas, before the heavy rain sets in, with all this new reinforcement (they aren't short on man power, only equipment) the Russian morale will collapse entirely.... Both militarily and at home.
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  2.  @zachemny  You are absolutely correct on the morale point, but "thousands" of (almost antiquated) pieces of hardware doesn't last long in a war. This war, so far, as been relatively minor, yet ORYX has visually confirmed 5907 pieces of heavy equipment loss for Russia. And they only go by videos and pictures uploaded online, which can be geo-located to avoid double-counting. The real losses are a lot higher than that. Even an absurd claim like saying "Russia had 20,000 perfectly working tanks prior to the war" needs to be put into the perspective of "But they have lost no less than 1089 of which no less than 391 fell into Ukrainian hands... in only 6 months". The truth is probably closer to double those numbers. If we take both at face value Russia has lost 10% of it's tanks, and it can't produce more, as it can't get optics systems and electronics outside of what they already had in inventory.... But the thing just is, every military analyst think that less than 30% of Russia's military equipment is in battle worthy condition. So much have just been left to rust in open fields. So much money for maintenance has gone into corrupt pockets. So much engine oil, nuts, bolts, copper from cables, etc, has gone into "self regulating salary". Observe that even by NATO standards, having 60-70% of your equipment park fully operational in peace time is considered a high number. So the 30% guess is not just some propaganda figure. It's probably set a bit high to not underestimate Russia. So the most probable truth is that Russia has lost upward of 25% of their capabilities... in 6 months. That's why I maintain, that even if morale was good (which it is not) a general mobilization is going to be as useful as tits on a fish.
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  3. Yeah. For something "just thrown together in a hotel room" this was darn good. Even the audio was pretty good.
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  4. Russia is done for. General mobilization is unviable at this point. This war always had to be won quickly for it to be sustainable. Point in case: Russia has a population of 110 million and 1.54% of world GDP. Japan, as an example, alone has a population of 125 million and 15.6% of world GDP. Over time, when war time production and mobilization is up and running, Russia could not muster Japan alone in a non-nuclear war. Let alone the Allies combined. So if we tally up: The Allies combined has a population of 1.1 billion and 55% of world GDP. And Russia only has 3.5x more people than Ukraine. 90% of Ukrainian men of able-bodied age is either actively wanting to fight or in the "if I'm drafted I will not resist and do my duty" camp. The vast majority in Russia does not want to be sent to the front. Even without the crippling financial sanctions and technology embargoes Russia would, over time, be completely and utterly arsefucked (yes, that's a proper technical military term). Russia only has "the nuclear button" to threaten with. But they bloody well know that if they push it the international response will be: 1) Full NATO mobilization, right away. 2) Pre-emptive nuclear strikes on every piece of critical infrastructure. 3) Millions of dead civilians on both sides, but Russia can't fight an enemy spread over three (probably soon five) different continents.
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