Comments by "Grenade Tennis" (@hughjass1044) on "VisualPolitik EN"
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China needs to understand that any tactic it deploys against Taiwan can in turn, be deployed against it. China is boxed in by its geography and it doesn't exactly have a lot of friends in its neighborhood.
Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, The Philippines, India, Malaysia and Singapore, not to mention Australia and New Zealand, are all either direct US allies or adversaries of China or both. Any kind of blockading maneuver on Taiwan could be quickly and easily matched by any one of these nations and if that were to happen, China would be cut off from its trade both inbound and outbound and would therefore be something like 50 shades of f*cked overnight!
Not to mention all of the sanctions that would instantly be applied to it. China needs to understand that it needs the world far more than the world needs it. There are lots of other places the world can go for cheap labor and dollar store junk.
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@@KnowHowTrainer The "almighty Russian propaganda" is definitely a thing but the larger point is that these countries have been in the Russian sphere of influence, the Russian "orbit" if you will, for generations and as such, that's what they understand and gravitate towards. It isn't necessarily a case that they like Russian influence and everything that comes with it, it's just that that's what they've lived with and what they're used to.
I'm in Canada and the cultural, economic, political and military colossus that is the USA is butted right up against us and as such, that is what has shaped and continues to shape, our country. We don't always like it but it's the prevailing reality. We can't escape it.
I've done some travelling and working in Eastern Europe and I've never met a single person under 50 who wants the communist system back but what they do want is a decent living and a future for their kids. Right now, they're not getting it.
Under the communist system, the state controlled everything so people just sat around and waited to be told what to do. That's gone. Replacing it is the prevailing western attitude of "ok, you're free now; go be rich." This they cannot do because they don't know how. No one ever taught them. This is why they need assistance before they slip back into the clutches of the despots.
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Here in Canada, there's kind of a running joke that comes up now and again, depending on the situation, that one day, the US will just absorb us and make us the 51st state. To this, many people reply that it wouldn't be worth their while to do so since if they did, they'd be responsible for us and have to look after us and since they already control everything of importance anyway.... the narrative goes.... and we're no threat to them, why bother, as the other old joke goes, "buying the cow when you already get the milk for free?"
As you say, Russia already controls everything of even marginal importance in Belarus and their leader is a reliable and loyal puppet. I have a friend who is Belorussian and he's explained to me several times that Putin isn't really bothered at all by former Soviet states, including Ukraine, being sovereign countries since he doesn't view that distinction the same way we would. He looks at things in terms of him being in control of anything in his neighborhood which he covets. In short, you answer to him and do what you're told, when you're told, and in other matters, do what you want.
If you refuse, "nice little country you've got there. Be a shame if anything happened to it." If Ukraine had decided to follow the same path as Belarus... or more accurately, Lukashenko's Belarus, all would have been fine but they did not and likewise, if the Belorussian people had been successful in toppling Lukashenko, Ukraine's fate would likely also have been Belarus's
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