Comments by "Grenade Tennis" (@hughjass1044) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics"
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I wouldn't put too much stock in that 13,000 figure for Russian tanks. I began my military career (in the armored corps, ironically enough) in 1979 and we were bandying about figures of 12-15,000 then and that was when it was the old USSR and their military was vastly larger and much more capable than it is today.
As a side note.... even then, those of us who saw them in action were well aware of their deficiencies and knew their bark was much worse than their bite.
Anyway, the consensus among most intelligence sources that I know of today puts the number of Russian tanks at about 50-60% of that 13,000 figure and the serviceable ones at about 50-60% of that. But even at that, they are still in a huge bind because they lack the resources, personnel and logistical support to put them into front line service.
As to the drawdown and depletion of stocks of Javelins etc, this also does not worry me. Those weapons are in fact, doing exactly the job they were always intended to do which is destroy enemy equipment. They're just being utilized by Ukrainians to do so instead of us.
Drawing down the stocks like that actually allows us to replace them with newer, fresher, more advanced and updated models and besides, let's face it... it's not as though we're really going to need them in the interim. The very job they were intended for is being done right now... just not by the people we thought would be doing it.
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"We should have seen this coming....." The theme song of the entire last century.
There's not a single major event in the last 100+ years that we haven't had ample, ample warning of. Hitler was very clear from very early on about what his intentions were. In fact, he wrote a whole book and told us about it in great detail. Putin as well, is and was, a prolific writer and his wishes, thoughts and ambitions were and are, well known.
Well over 50 years of Syrian history should have made abundantly clear what would happen there. Likewise with the debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan. The situations in Cuba, Vietnam and Iran were primarily of our own making and all could have easily been avoided.
What kind of industrial grade idiots deliberately and intentionally guts and hollows out their own manufacturing sector and with it, their middle class and to make it worse, sends it all to our primary strategic enemy?!
Financial analysts and experts by the thousands saw the train wrecks of both the 1929 and 2008 stock market crashes coming a mile away. I wasn't alive in 1929 but I well remember reading and hearing the alarm bells a year and a half before 2008.
All these warnings... loud, clear and unmistakable... and yet all of these events still happened. It's not that we should have seen them coming, we DID see them coming. It's just that our leaders chose to look away.
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What is being manufactured in Taiwan can be, and increasingly is being, manufactured elsewhere. The US, France, Sweden, Canada, South Korea and others all have, or soon will have, every capability that the Taiwanese have. It's simply a matter of putting the capacity in place to do so and that process is well underway.
Furthermore, these chips are not an indigenous Taiwanese product. They are manufactured there because they were off-shored there for the same reasons most other things were off-shored.
The design, engineering, intellectual property and indeed the materials used in their manufacture all come from outside. The Chinese might be able to take over and seize the physical infrastructure but they can't do anything with it because they don't have the capability to do what the Taiwanese can do. If they did, they'd be doing it already. They have no extortionary power in this regard and they know it. @Frankenspank67
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