Comments by "John Burns" (@johnburns4017) on "Was Germany's Defeat Inevitable in WW2? Turning Point? And more... TIK Patreon Q&A 4" video.
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After the fall of France, the Germans had access to the industry of Northern Italy, France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, however were not able to use it to match either the Soviets or the British in war production. The success of the Royal Navy blockade was instrumental in starving Germany of vital resources and food both animal and human. French production of planes destined for Germany was minuscule. France was not capable to produce as pre-war the French imported coal from Britain for its power generation. With the successful Royal Navy blockade the main source of coal was from Germany. Germany could not increase its production to overcome the French shortfall.
The amount of food produced in continental Europe fell. The production of meat and dairy products in countries such as Denmark was dependant on imported grain and animal feed from the Americas. This was now not available. The level of food available from the dairy industry collapsed as did food production in general. In the rest of Europe food production had been based on chemical fertilizer. Huge levels of the chemicals used for fertilizer production were diverted to the manufacturing of explosives.
French workers were on subsistence rations. Electricity was widely not available in France. The country had been dependant on motorized transportation. With no fuel with road & rail vehicles seized by the Germans, milk was poured away in farms and other produce put back into the ground unable to reach towns or cities. Most of French oil imports came from abroad. Once France fell oil products came from Romania and synthetic oil made in Germany, and so little it made little difference to the dire situation. The oil output was not enough for the needs of the German forces alone and to keep the Italian navy operational, which threatened to suspend all operations in February 1941 unless Germany provided 250,000 tons of fuel due to the dire shortage. France reverted to a horse and cart economy. The occupied countries were a drain on the German economy.
The USSR had the natural resources that would enable Germany to out-produce Britain and America. Hitler turned to the USSR which was also a key step in his broader strategy. The invasion of the USSR was brought forward. The urgency of Hitler's aggression was also down to his awareness of the threat posed to Germany by the emergence of the USA as a global superpower. The USA has access to vast resources inside the USA, a land stolen by moving west, from indigenous people and the Mexicans. Hitler took this precedence looking east to emulate the USA, and match them economically. None of the German generals thought that the USSR could initially stand up to an invasion of over 3 million men in June 1941, however they knew they had to defeat the USSR by Christmas or they would fail as Germany had few resources and committed all reserves. This was another gamble. The USSR did stand up to the Germans and were able to marshal their industrial and military resources to last.
The British were pushing the Germans back in Operation Crusader in the North African desert in late 1941. British forces had secured Syria from the Vichy French and Iraq was secured from a German inspired revolt keeping the Germans away from the oil fields of the Middle East and ensuring the war was conducted in Europe and the strip on the southern Mediterranean coast. British and Soviet forces invaded Iran with the Soviets committing 1,000 tanks, to secure the British oil refinery at Aberdan and the railway from the Gulf to the Soviet border. The German advance was stopped dead at Moscow in December 1941, with 40% of the tanks used supplied by the British with the Soviets launching their new T-34 tank of which Germany had no answer.
With German industry being bombed by the RAF, being totally outproduced by the British & Soviets, desperately short of all resources because of the Royal Navy blockade, Germany now winning the war was a remote proposition. No more quick win gambles could be played. The gamble in France worked, the gamble in the USSR failed. The defeat at Moscow was in the same month the USA came into the war when Japan attacked the British Empire & the USA and Germany declared war on the USA. In the first year the USA entered WW2, 1942, the USSR outproduced the USA.
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@vandeheyeric
Tooze looks at the war from an economic stance. He was right, Germany's economy was far too small. Tooze says that in 1939, Germany taking on just the British empire would mean German defeat. Looking at the state of play then, he was right.
Germany's victory in France was a shock, even to the Germans. A gamble that paid off. As Tooze points out, a gamble that could have easily gone the other way meaning the end of Germany. That put them in an artificial position of superiority. After France, the Germans never had a campaign victory over the British (the British were minor players in France having only 9% of allied forces).
Germany had spectacular gains, but nothing conclusive, however were continually being pushed back - in short, they were always losing but putting up a good fight. Geography played to their advantage, in that the British could not get at them on the Continent, apart from the air. The time they did lock horns on the ground was in the desert which the Germans, despite being with their allies, lost.
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Randisides
There has been a tradition in the world of downgrading Britain's contribution to WW2, especially in the USA. The British fought a highly technological and industrial war and did so very efficiently. Britain used not only her vast empire but her even larger trading empire to great effect - an army of 2.6 million marched into Burma. The British, with its massive navy, surrounded the Axis, from the Med (cutting off both entrances to the sea) to the Eastern Atlantic, starving them of natural resources, and ensuring where the battles would be fought.
Steel not flesh was the slogan. The British assessed that having massive armies is highly inefficient. The larger the army the higher the casualties. Britain deliberately chose to keep numbers of front line troops as low as possible building machines and using technology advances instead - the BEF in France was the first army were men never marched - fully motorised. The Kangaroo was the first armoured personnel carrier developed in WW2 from adapted tanks, saving many lives, in contrast to the horrendous US casualties. The policy worked, despite fighting for the duration, the only major country to do so, and all around the globe, the country had only lost around 440,000, which is half the British dead of the 1914-1918 war, which lasted two years less. Germany and the USSR lost considerably more troops than they had in WW1.
From the war came amazing British inventions: the cavity magnetron, electronic computer, the world’s most advanced jet engines, anti-submarine electronics, the proximity fuse, as well as the Liberty ship (a Sunderland design), to name but a few. Massive developments in manufacturing, with a staggering 132,500 aircraft and over one million military vehicles. Canada alone produced more wheeled vehicles than Germany.
From the first American servicemen arriving in Britain in 1942, until VE Day, the British provided the USA with 31% of all their supplies in the European Theatre of Operations. Britain's war effort was astonishing – backed by their insistence in continuing the fight in 1940. The British made an enormous contribution to winning the war, being the key agents. This had a positive effect on the future of the world. The declinist view of Britain in the war must be dispelled for good.
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John Cornell
The British would not deploy the Meteor over German held territory. The Germans were desperate. The 262 was not better than than Meteor. There is a myth that the Germans were way ahead of the British in jet engines and planes in WW2, when the opposite is true. The WW2 German jet engines were extremely unreliable with low performances and very high fuel consumption. The German axial-flow turbojets never worked as they wanted being developed up to 1953 by the French to obtain a usable engine. The French lost a lot of time playing around with the German engines, instead of working with the British. The French and Soviets after WW2 tried to improve the German axial-flow engines and largely failed.
The Germans did not invent the axial-flow turbojet, they based everything on Frank Whittle's patents. The British Metropolitan-Vickers F.1 axial-flow engine was running on a test bed in 1941. The F.2 was an axial-flow being an extremely advanced design using a nine-stage axial compressor, annular combustor, and a two-stage turbine. It powered a Meteor in November 1943. It was considered unreliable and never saw use during the war, hence why the British went for the reliability, controllability and quick development of the centrifugal turbojets. The Metro-Vick F.3 was the first ever turbofan in 1943. Metro-Vick developed the F.9 Sapphire, however left the jet business in 1947 giving all their designs to Armstrong Siddeley, who commercially produced the Armstrong Siddeley Sapphire engine, which was licence built in the US as the J-65.
The British in order to get a usable and reliable jet engine, with the technology of the time, went for a centrifugal design rather than the troublesome axial-flow design. This design produced less thrust than an axial-flow but was quicker to develop and reliable outperforming the best piston engines planes at the time. It took 5 months to develop, while the first reliable axial-flow engine was the 1950 Rolls Royce Avon, which took 5 years to get right. The Avon is still in production as a ground based gas turbine, with the aero version in production for 30 years.
In 1945 the French made and tested some German designed turbo jets made with quality steel unavailable to German industry in WW2. They ran for 25 hours instead of the 10 hours of the Germans engines that used poorer quality steel. Not much better. The German axial-flow engines failed because of heavy design flaws. The centrifugal compressor used by the first British Meteor plane was fine and much more reliable, but unable to reach high compression ratios. This limited performances. Centrifugal compressors were used up to the 1960s.
In 1945 the team from the French ATAR laboratory plus some BMW and Junkers engineers, were engaged by the French SNECMA research bureau, with the objective to build a new reliable and performing axial-flow turbojet. The BMW 003/Jumo004 was considered unusable. It was tested on the first French jet aircraft, the 1946 So6000 Triton, overheating and exploding. The plane only flew with a Rolls Royce Nene centrifugal turbojet.
The ATAR project took 6 years to produce the first acceptable axial-flow turbojet (ATAR 101 B1), produced in 1953. So 8 years research and developments by the French using the German jet engines as the base. It was installed on the first French jet fighter, the Dassault Ouragan.
The French lost a lot of time because the German jets had poor efficiency and some concept fails. Essentially in the combustion chambers and fresh air circulation to reduce the external temperature of the engine. The BMW jet was known for overheat problems which precluded fuselage installation.
The question at the end of WW2 was: what is the most efficient way to produce jet fighters? The answer was clearly not adopting the German design of engine and fuselage. The build costs for a jet engine were much higher than a piston engine, with the fuel consumption near 3x. The centrifugal compressor the British adopted in some planes was the best choice with 1944-45 technology, more compression pressure was not an advantage when the hot turbine was unable to resist higher temperatures. The German turbojets had big overheat problems as the engine would not work in an enclosed fuselage for single engined fighters. This defect was immediately noted by the French on the 1946 "SO 6000 Triton" prototype, and by the Soviets on the 1946 Mig 9. The Soviets quickly replaced the BMW 004B2 by the centrifugal Rolls Royce Nene which worked without problems, dismissing the BMW engine for fighter planes. The Rolls Royce Nene was copied to the last nut by the USSR being installed in the Mig 15 being used effectively in the Korean war.
The Meteor was the first proper fully developed jet plane introduced operationally. The 262 was slightly faster than the Meteor F3, but extremely unreliable. The British would never put into the sky such an undeveloped plane as the me262. The British could have had a jet fighter operational in 1941, but it may have been as bad as the me262. The Germans advanced R&D on jets after they interrogated captured British RAF men. They learned the British were advanced in jet technology and flying prototype planes. Until then the Germans had no intention of mass producing jet planes.
The rushed together Me262 started claiming kills on 26 July 1944, the Meteor claimed its first V1 kill a few days later on the 4 August 1944. But the Meteor was a proper fully developed jet plane, not a thrown together desperate effort as the me262 was. The me262 fuselage was similar to a piston plane with the pilot over the wings obscuring downward vision, while the Meteor was a proper new design fuselage specifically for jet fighters with a forward of the wings pilot position giving superior pilot vision, as we see in planes today. The cockpit was very quiet. The sweptback wings of the me262 were to move the engines further back for better weight distribution, not for aerodynamic reasons as is thought the case. The me262's airframe was based on piston engine planes, even with an initial rear tail wheel. The tricycle landing gear was only introduced when it was found the thrust of the jet engines would scorch the runway surface as the exhaust faced downwards. The Meteor's airframe was designed purely for jet propulsion even with a high tail to prevent thrust interfering with the tail which could affect control.
Centrifugal compressors were not obsolete being used in turboprops. Between a turbo jet and a turboprop, the only difference is the turbine, not the compressor. The last centrifugal compressor jet engine still in service on a handful of commercial aircraft like the Fokker 27, is the Rolls Royce Dart turboprop. A very reliable engine made in 27 versions, but with high fuel consumption to modern engines. The Rolls Royce Dart Turboprop turbo jet engine was produced the longest, being a comparable design turbojet to the likes the Rolls Royce Nene. The rugged engine was produced from 1946 up to 1987.
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John Cornell
The Me 262 first flew in 1942, well over a year after the Gloster 'Whittle' of May 1941. The Meteor was in RAF service from 1944 to 1984, also used by Argentina, Australia, Egypt, France, Belgium, Israel, Syria, etc. The Meteor set the world air speed record in 1945 and again in 1946 and the London - Copenhagen - London record in 1950. The Meteor also set an endurance record of 12 hours and 3,600 miles being refuelled by a Lancaster tanker in 1949 and several times height records using Armstrong Siddeley Sapphire engines in 1948.
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@WilliamJones-Halibut-vq1fs
There is a myth that the Germans were way ahead of the British in jet engines and planes in WW2, when the opposite is true. The WW2 German jet engines were extremely unreliable with low performances and very high fuel consumption. The German axial-flow turbojets never worked as they wanted being developed up to 1953 by the French to obtain a usable engine. The French lost a lot of time playing around with the German engines, instead of working with the British. The French and Soviets after WW2 tried to improve the German axial-flow engines and largely failed.
The Germans did not invent the axial-flow turbojet, they based everything on Frank Whittle's patents. The British Metropolitan-Vickers F.1 axial-flow engine was running on a test bed in 1941. The F.2 was an axial-flow being an extremely advanced design using a nine-stage axial compressor, annular combustor, and a two-stage turbine. It powered a Meteor in November 1943. It was considered unreliable and never saw use during the war, hence why the British went for the reliability, controllability and quick development of the centrifugal turbojets. The Metro-Vick F.3 was the first ever turbofan in 1943. Metro-Vick developed the F.9 Sapphire, however left the jet business in 1947 giving all their designs to Armstrong Siddeley, who commercially produced the Armstrong Siddeley Sapphire engine, which was licence built in the US as the J-65.
The British in order to get a usable and reliable jet engine, with the technology of the time, went for a centrifugal design rather than the troublesome axial-flow design. This design produced less thrust than an axial-flow but was quicker to develop and reliable outperforming the best piston engines planes at the time. It took 5 months to develop, while the first reliable axial-flow engine was the 1950 Rolls Royce Avon, which took 5 years to get right. The Avon is still in production as a ground based gas turbine, with the aero version in production for 30 years.
In 1945 the French made and tested some German designed turbo jets made with quality steel unavailable to German industry in WW2. They ran for 25 hours instead of the 10 hours of the Germans engines that used poorer quality steel. Not much better. The German axial-flow engines failed because of heavy design flaws. The centrifugal compressor used by the first British Meteor plane was fine and much more reliable, but unable to reach high compression ratios. This limited performances. Centrifugal compressors were used up to the 1960s.
In 1945 the team from the French ATAR laboratory plus some BMW and Junkers engineers, were engaged by the French SNECMA research bureau, with the objective to build a new reliable and performing axial-flow turbojet. The BMW 003/Jumo004 was considered unusable. It was tested on the first French jet aircraft, the 1946 So6000 Triton, overheating and exploding. The plane only flew with a Rolls Royce Nene centrifugal turbojet.
The ATAR project took 6 years to produce the first acceptable axial-flow turbojet (ATAR 101 B1), produced in 1953. So 8 years research and developments by the French using the German jet engines as the base. It was installed on the first French jet fighter, the Dassault Ouragan.
The French lost a lot of time because the German jets had poor efficiency and some concept fails. Essentially in the combustion chambers and fresh air circulation to reduce the external temperature of the engine. The BMW jet was known for overheat problems which precluded fuselage installation.
The question at the end of WW2 was: what is the most efficient way to produce jet fighters? The answer was clearly not adopting the German design of engine and fuselage. The build costs for a jet engine were much higher than a piston engine, with the fuel consumption near 3x. The centrifugal compressor the British adopted in some planes was the best choice with 1944-45 technology, more compression pressure was not an advantage when the hot turbine was unable to resist higher temperatures. The German turbojets had big overheat problems as the engine would not work in an enclosed fuselage for single engined fighters. This defect was immediately noted by the French on the 1946 "SO 6000 Triton" prototype, and by the Soviets on the 1946 Mig 9. The Soviets quickly replaced the BMW 004B2 by the centrifugal Rolls Royce Nene which worked without problems, dismissing the BMW engine for fighter planes. The Rolls Royce Nene was copied to the last nut by the USSR being installed in the Mig 15 being used effectively in the Korean war.
The Meteor was the first proper fully developed jet plane introduced operationally. The 262 was slightly faster than the Meteor F3, but extremely unreliable. The British would never put into the sky such an undeveloped plane as the me262. The British could have had a jet fighter operational in 1941, but it may have been as bad as the me262. The Germans advanced R&D on jets after they interrogated captured British RAF men. They learned the British were advanced in jet technology and flying prototype planes. Until then the Germans had no intention of mass producing jet planes.
The rushed together Me262 started claiming kills on 26 July 1944, the Meteor claimed its first V1 kill a few days later on the 4 August 1944. But the Meteor was a proper fully developed jet plane, not a thrown together desperate effort as the me262 was. The me262 fuselage was similar to a piston plane with the pilot over the wings obscuring downward vision, while the Meteor was a proper new design fuselage specifically for jet fighters with a forward of the wings pilot position giving superior pilot vision, as we see in planes today. The cockpit was very quiet. The sweptback wings of the me262 were to move the engines further back for better weight distribution, not for aerodynamic reasons as is thought the case. The me262's airframe was based on piston engine planes, even with an initial rear tail wheel. The tricycle landing gear was only introduced when it was found the thrust of the jet engines would scorch the runway surface as the exhaust faced downwards. The Meteor's airframe was designed purely for jet propulsion even with a high tail to prevent thrust interfering with the tail which could affect control.
Centrifugal compressors were not obsolete being used in turboprops. Between a turbo jet and a turboprop, the only difference is the turbine, not the compressor. The last centrifugal compressor jet engine still in service on a handful of commercial aircraft like the Fokker 27, is the Rolls Royce Dart turboprop. A very reliable engine made in 27 versions, but with high fuel consumption to modern engines. The Rolls Royce Dart Turboprop turbo jet engine was produced the longest, being a comparable design turbojet to the likes the Rolls Royce Nene. The rugged engine was produced from 1946 up to 1987.
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@paulrobinson4256
The British won the Battle of Dunkirk.
The British BEF was only 9% of the total allied forces in France and the Low Countries. The German advance was halted in France as the British with a vastly inferior force stopped them at Arras. Some German soldiers turned and ran. Directive 13, issued by German Supreme Headquarters on 24 May 1940 stated specifically for the annihilation of the French, English and Belgian forces in the Dunkirk pocket. The Luftwaffe was ordered to prevent the escape of the British forces across the English Channel.
The German southern advance was stopped at Arras by the British with a numerically inferior force. The Germans never moved much further after. The Germans could not have taken Dunkirk, they would have been badly beaten in and around the town. The Luftwaffe was defeated over Dunkirk by the RAF with the first showing of the Spitfire en-mass. More German than allied planes were destroyed in the Dunkirk pocket. The first defeat of the Nazis in WW2 was in the air by the British over Dunkirk. Only six small warships were sunk at Dunkirk by the Germans as the effectiveness of the Luftwaffe blunted.
The British were retreating after the French collapsed in front of them - a programme already in motion, a programme already in motion before the Germans showed up, as General Gort saw the disjointed performance of the French forces in front of him. If the French collapsed the small BEF had no hope against the large German force heading west. The French were still in front of the British when General Gort decided to take the men back to England, as he did not trust the French in a joint counter-attack. French General Wiegand held a meeting to arrange a counter-attack and never invited General Gort head of the BEF. Gort was under the command of Weigand. Gort heard of the meeting and rushed to be a part. He got there after the French and Belgians had left. He ordered the evacuation having no faith in the elderly French leaders.
All armies retreat and regroup when the need is there. There happened to be a body of water in the line of the retreat. Were they to move down the English coast and enter France further west with more men from England? The Germans did not know what was to be the next British or allied move. The Germans could not have taken Dunkirk and they tried. The British retreat operation was carried out as planned and in orderly fashion. All bridges to Dunkirk were destroyed by the allies.
The British counter-attack at Arras was with outdated Matilda 1 tanks, which only had machine guns, and a few of the brand new Matilda 2 tanks. The Germans fled in droves. In desperation the Germans turned a 88mm AA gun horizontal and it worked against the Matilda 2 - their conventional anti-tank weapons and tanks could not penetrate the tank. The Matilda 2 would roll over German gun emplacements killing the gunners. Rommel thought he had been hit by a force three times the size, which made them stop and rethink. The Germans countered with their superior numbers pushing back the British who fell back towards Dunkirk.
The British resolve and the new Matilda 2 made the Germans sit up and think about a street fight in Dunkirk against a consolidated force still with its weapons and the new Matilda 2 - the 88mm would be useless in Dunkirk streets while the Matilda 2 would be in its element, and the Matlida 2 would have easily destroyed the Panzer mk3s. The Matilda 2 could knock out any German tank at the time, while no German tank could knock it out. The Germans were expecting the Matilda 2 to be shipped over in numbers and for all they knew many were in Dunkirk. The Germans could not stop the tanks coming as the British controlled the skies with a CAP and the waters of the Channel. Not a good prospect for the Germans. A Dunkirk street fight was a fight the German troops were untrained and unequipped for and unwise to get involved in.
Von Rundstedt and von Kluge suggested to Hitler that German forces around the Dunkirk pocket cease their advance and consolidate and also to prevent an Allied break out from Dunkirk. Hitler agreed with the support of the Wehrmacht. German preoccupation rightly was with an expected attack from the fluid mainly French and some British forces to the south of the German line, not from dug-in Dunkirk which was too much of a formidable consolidated opponent, taking substantial resources to seize. The German column had Allied troops to each side and in front and there was soft marshland to the south west of Dunkirk unsuitable for tanks. If German forces had engaged in a street battle for Dunkirk, they would be vulnerable on their weak flank from the south. In short the fast moving panzers were now static; German forces attacking Dunkirk in a battle of attrition would have been largely wiped out.
The German columns were consolidating their remaining armour and the important resupply from Germany, which was slow as it was via horses, for an expected attack by the British and French from the south. The Germans attacked on a remarkably narrow front. They had over-stretched their supply lines. The Germans had no option but to stop, being more concerned at defending from the mainly French forces in the south which were viewed as a greater threat than Dunkirk. French general Weigand implemented his creation of hedgehogs to attack German lines from the sides, with success - hedgehogs were adopted post war by NATO being a part of the tactics until the 1970s.
The Germans were thinking, are the British retreating to England from Dunkirk to move down the English coast and re-enter France further south with fresh forces, including Canadians and the new Matilda 2 tanks, which they feared, and join up with the French forces there? The British could easily do that as they controlled the Channel. This would create one large difficult to combat force. They saw the resolve of outnumbered British forces at Arras. German generals were trying to figure out what was happening. None thought that British troops would retreat to England and stay there. The British never did that sort of thing.
The Germans could divert most of their forces south and risk a Dunkirk breakout and then risk being attacked from their rear fighting on two fronts, or stay and consolidate, which they needed to do, awaiting a French/British attack from the south and use some forces and the Luftwaffe to attack Dunkirk, which they did. German forces resumed their attack on Dunkirk for 6 days and failed to seize the port.
The plan to break out of the Dunkirk Pocket using British, Belgian and French forces was abandoned as Gort had no confidence in the French. All military school studies since, knowing what the German and allied positions and situations were in 1940, have shown it would have succeeded.
The Germans were defeated at the Battle of Dunkirk. They tried militarily to seize the port but failed. Only because the British did not trust the French and moved back to England did the Germans eventually occupy the town. The Germans did not let the British get away that is misguided myth, they tried and simply could not seize Dunkirk.
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The imminent concern of Germany was to get resources to fend off the coming air war with Britain.
Wages of Destruction. Adam Tooze:
Planning for Barbarossa..
Tooze Page 454:
"Critical stores would be reserved above all for the main strike force of 33 tank and motorised infantry divisions. If the battle extended much beyond the first months of the attack, the fighting power of the rest of the German army would dwindle rapidly."
"Fundamentally the Wehrmacht was a "poor army". The fast striking motorised element of the German army in 1941 consisted of only 33 divisions of 130. Three-quarters of the German army continued to rely on more traditional means of traction: foot and horse. The German army in 1941 invaded the Soviet Union with somewhere between 600,000 and 740,000 horses. The horses were not for riding. They were for moving guns, ammunition and supplies."
"The vast majority of Germany's soldiers marched into Russia, as they had in France, on foot."
"But to imagine a fully motorised Wehrmacht, poised for an attack on the Soviet Union is a fantasy of the Cold War, not a realistic vision of the possibilities of 1941. To be more specific, it is an American fantasy. The Anglo-American invasion force of 1944 was the only military force in WW2 to fully conform to the modern model of a motorised army."
Page 455:
"the chronic shortage of fuel and rubber"
"the fuel shortage of 1941 was so expected to be so severe that the Wehrmacht was seriously considering demotorisation as a way of reducing its dependency on scarce oil."
"Everything therefore depended on the assumption that the Red Army would crack under the impact of the first decisive blow."
Page 456:
"a new Soviet industrial base to the east of the Urals, which had the capacity to sustain a population of at least 40 million people."
"Soviet industrial capacity was clearly very substantial."
"Franz Halder recorded Hitler's ruminations about the Soviets' immense stock of tanks and aircraft."
Reading further Tooze gives the misgivings of the German generals of the invasion. All were negative.
Page 460:
"As late as the Spring of 1941, the Foreign Ministry was still opposing the coming war, preferring to continue the alliance with the Soviet Union against the British Empire."
"If the shock of the initial assault does not destroy Stalin's regime, it was evident in February 1941 that the Third Reich would find itself facing a strategic disaster."
Page 452:
"the Germans had already conscripted virtually all their prime manpower. By contrast, the Red Army could call up millions of reservists."
Why did Germany invade the USSR in a rushed ill-conceived plan?
Page 431:
"the strongest arguments for rushing to conquer the Soviet Union in 1941 were precisely the growing shortage of grain and the need to knock Britain out of the war before it could pose a serious air threat."
"Meanwhile, the rest of the German military-industrialised complex began to gird itself for the aerial confrontation with Britain and America."
Germany rushed to invade the Soviet Union, with an ill-equipped army with no reserves in anticipation of a massive air war with Britain and the USA, hoping they could win the Soviet war within weeks.
The coming air war:
Roosevelt promised 50,000 plane per year production in May 1940, of which a substantial amount would be in the RAF. Germany could not compete with the level of aircraft at the UKs disposal. Whether the planes had US and UK pilots or just UK pilots they were coming Germany's way. And the only way they could really get at each other was by air. Germany feared mass bombing, which came - the bomber in the late 1930s was perceived as a war winning weapon. The Germans knew the lead time for aircraft was 18 months from order to delivery. That meant in late 1941/early 1942, these planes would be starting to come into service in great numbers. Germany needed the resources of the east to compete. If the population was too big they would eliminate the population - the precedence was the American move to the west expanding the USA, taking lands from the natives population and Mexican and eliminating the population.
War Production:
Keegan, World War Two, chapter War Production:
- Germany was third behind the USA, then the UK in GDP, in 1939. Germany = UK in capital goods production in 1939.
- UK economy grows 60% during WW2.
- Hitler says to Guderian, re: USSR, "had I known they had so many tanks as that, I would have thought twice before invading"
Tooze, Preface, xxiii:
Combined GDP of the UK and France exceeded Germany & Italy by 60%.
- page 454:
"It was poor because of the incomplete industrial and economic development of Germany".
Interesting:
http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/publications/twerp603.pdf
Snippets:
"Soviet exceeded German GDP in 1940"
"The Allies won the war because their economies supported a greater volume of war production and military personnel in larger numbers. This was true of the war as a whole, and it was also true on the eastern front where the Soviet economy, of a similar size to Germany's but less developed and also seriously weakened by invasion, supplied more soldiers and weapons."
"the technological key to Soviet superiority in the output of weapons was mass production. At the outbreak of war Soviet industry as a whole was not larger and not more productive than German industry. The non-industrial resources on which Soviet industry could draw were larger than Germany's in the sense of territory and population, but of considerably lower quality, more far-flung, and less well integrated. Both countries had given considerable thought to industrial mobilisation preparations, but the results were of questionable efficacy. In both countries war production was poorly organised at first and productivity in the military-industrial sector had been falling for several years. The most important difference was that Soviet industry had made real strides towards mass production, while German industry was still locked into an artisan mode of production that placed a premium on quality and assortment rather than quantity. Soviet industry produced fewer models of each type of weapon, and subjected them to less modification, but produced them in far larger quantities. Thus the Soviet Union was able to make considerably more effective use of its limited industrial resources than Germany."
"Before the war Soviet defence industry was in a state of permanent technological reorganisation as new models of aircraft, tanks, and other weapons were introduced and old ones phased out at dizzying rate."
The USSR had access to oil and more natural resources and far more men. Making their ability to produce far greater than Germany, which actually happened.
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@arnepietruszewski9255
British industrial output was equal to Germany's.
The British produced more planes than Germany in WW2. In 1941 the British were building more aircraft than Germany, Japan and Italy combined, 5,000 more than the USSR and 5,000 less than the USA. Overall the planes they produced were superior. Canada alone produced more wheeled vehicles than Germany.
The first 1,000 bomber raid was in May 1942, a few months after the USA came into WW2. Lend lease only started to make an impact in 1943.
The two largest economies in the world were the British empire and the USA. The USA supplies about 11% if British supplies, mainly raw materials and machines tools and about 5% of Soviet - British War Production by Postan 1951. Hardly earth shattering.
If Germany and Italy thought they could seize Malta they would have. Planes based in Malta were reaking havoc with Italy's merchant fleet. Try to seize Malta then the RN comes in from two directions.
On the US entering WW2, it was about the British defending the USA and teaching them how to wage war. The British provided vital assistance to the USN. In early 1942 the British had to lend the USN 24 anti-submarine vessels, and crews, a Fleet Air Arm Squadron to protect New York Harbour with the Royal Navy moving over defending the eastern seaboard of the USA, as the Americans concentrated on any perceived follow up attack by the Japanese in the Pacific.
The USN was totally unprepared for war, despite every warning, ending up being far more dependent on the Royal Navy than they would have liked. Even the aircraft carrier HMS Victorious was loaned to the USA to operate in the Pacific as they only had one carrier, temporarily renamed USS Robin (after Robin Hood).
The British and Soviets had decided the course of the war with the Battle of Britain and the Battle of Moscow - Germany was stopped in the west and in the east and going nowhere in North Africa. The Germans were going nowhere from Dec 1941, the Battle of Moscow.
The war was essentially won in 1938 and 1940, when in British made a planned switch to a war economy, five years ahead of Germany, and in 1940 the British refused to make peace. In 1941 the British were building more aircraft than Germany, Japan and Italy combined, 5,000 more than the USSR and 5,000 less than the USA.
In 1942 the USA was a liability. Shipping losses to U-boats had fallen steadily throughout 1941 only to reach spectacular levels with the entry of the USA into the war - up to summer of 1942 the US lost 600 vessels from the Caribbean to Newfoundland. All major historical authorities, Morrison, Roskill, Churchill, Bauer and even General Marshall agreed this was entirely due the incompetence of the US Navy and the stupidity of Admiral King. The correspondence between King and Marshall can be found in Bauer's history and ends in effect, with an army general correctly advising a US Admiral on maritime tactics.
The USAAF in the UK was receiving approximately 70% of its supplies locally until 1943 - it is in the USAAF history.
The story of the USA 'coming to the rescue’ of the UK is propaganda story that suited both the British and the USA at the time. The reality was very different, starting with the Arcadia conference in late 1941, where the British subtly forced US to model its war economy and planning on the British system. The reality was the USA knew nothing about managing a modern war learning everything from the British. In 1939 the US army was the 19th largest in the world about the same size of Romania and smaller than Portugal. They never even had a tank, never mind a tank corps.
Had things been different and the British been really up against it, the Tizard mission may have gone to the USSR, not the USA. The British had a workable design for a nuclear bomb from the ‘Tube Alloys’ project. Britain and the USSR would have won, maybe using the A-Bomb with the USA a minor player on the world stage today - similar to China, being a large manufacturing country.
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