Comments by "John Burns" (@johnburns4017) on "Why didn't Spain join the Axis?" video.

  1. "In Spain, the situation over the winter of 1940-41 approached famine conditions and the inability of Germany to guarantee sufficient grain supplies was a major factor in persuading Franco not to declare on the German side." -Prof Adam Tooze, Wages of Destruction.
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  2. One of the reasons Franco refused to enter the war with Germany was he believed the British would win. German Admiral Canaris also told Franco this. At the time Franco met Hitler in late October 1940, he knew the British had wiped out a large part of the French fleet at Mers El Kabir, sunk large Italian battleships and were effectively near wiping out the Italians in the desert. The RN was the largest navy in the world with the German navy pretty well non-existent after Norway - the U-Boats came later. The RN were sailing openly in the Mediterranean and had aircraft carriers that could strike anywhere. The Luftwaffe were defeated over Dunkirk and England. Hitler planned to invade the UK and was prevented from doing so. Although they had conquered France with a large land army (the British were only 9% of the Allies), Germany were no super power and Franco knew that. Franco also knew the British were highly mobile able to deploy troops almost anywhere, unlike the German military. At the beginning of World War II, naval officer and ex Turkish prime minister Rauf Orbay was the Turkish ambassador in London, stating that the British can raise 45 million troops from its empire so certainly will win. One reason why Turkey kept out of the war. Franco feared all the Spanish islands and large parts of southern Spain and North Africa being occupied by the British (who were running the Italians out of North Africa at the time) with Spain turned into a battleground. Spain was also in no fit state to fight a war, militarily or economically. If the RN put a naval blockade on Spain the British could have starved Spain into submission. If the country was starving there may be a rising and a civil war all over again. With the Republicans supplied by the British. Franco wanted to join Hitler but had little, to nothing, to gain by joining him.
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  3. The key to all this is Vichy France. More importantly, the Caudillo's slowly dawning cognizance of the strength of British resistance would gradually reactivate his deep-seated fears of a retaliatory strike against Spain or her overseas territories. - Preston Nevertheless, had Hitler been sufficiently determined to secure Spanish belligerence, he might well have pulled Franco into the war on his side. It would have required massive deliveries of food and military equipment and extravagant promises of imperial spoils at the expense of France. As things were to turn out, the Fiihrer would be inhibited from making the necessary promises to Franco for fear of the French finding out. Overwhelming evidence that Spain would be an economic and military liability convinced Hitler that it was simply not worth the risk of alienating Vichy to gain Spanish belligerence. -Preston German policy was to have Vichy France on her side. That means French overseas territories not joining in with the British. The Winston Churchill ‘Some chicken! Some neck!’ speech. “Some chicken, some neck” was a reference to the sneering comment by French Marshal Philippe Pétain, future leader of the collaborationist Vichy French government who was convinced that Germany would successfully invade Britain as it had done France. He told Churchill that in three weeks Britain would “have its neck wrung like a chicken.” From the speech: The French Government had at their own suggestion solemnly bound themselves with us not to make a separate peace. It was their duty and it was also their interest to go to North Africa, where they would have been at the head of the French Empire. In Africa, with our aid, they would have had overwhelming sea power. They would have had the recognition of the United States, and the use of all the gold they had lodged beyond the seas. If they had done this Italy might have been driven out of the war before the end of 1940, and France would have held her place as a nation in the counsels of the Allies and at the conference table of the victors. But their generals misled them. When I warned them that Britain would fight on alone whatever they did, their generals told their Prime Minister and his divided Cabinet, “In three weeks England will have her neck wrung like a chicken.” Some chicken; some neck. -Winston Churchill, Ottawa, Dec. 30, 1941 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6JxSHmVB5g The Germans kept Vichy in their camp. If they had not Italy would have been out of North Africa and the large North Africa campaign would not have happened with British forces deployed elsewhere. The Med would have been a British/French lake. The combined French and British fleets would have been indispensable in launching seaborne attacks just about anywhere they wanted. Hitler promised Vichy coal, as their source from the UK was cut off, and oil and other food and raw materials. Also work in producing goods for Germany which they would pay for. Keeping Vichy on his side was vital to Hitler. It was either: 1. Getting Spain into the war and Germany then having to supply Spain and support her if attacked, which takes huge resources, and give Franco French territory in Africa, potentially turning French overseas territories to Britain's side 2. Keep Vichy on Germany's side, which would take resources but far, far greater benefits. Spain was best left inert with Germany focusing on pacifying Vichy France making them inert, so they do not move over to align with Britain, which may have meant removing Italy from the war, or at least from Africa. Germany could not supply both countries. Franco's terms were unacceptable to Hitler. So, whether Franco thought Hitler would win or not, was quite irrelevant. If Franco was not to gain any territory, then why should he join in the war? If he joined the war and the allies won, there was the fear that he would most probably be removed.
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  4. Wiki. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_Canaris "Hitler sent Canaris to Spain to conclude an agreement (through strong coercion if necessary) with Franco for Spanish support in the war against the Allies, but instead of prompting the Spaniard to acquiesce to Hitler's desire, Canaris reported that Franco would not commit Spanish forces until Great Britain was defeated. Conversations from this period between Franco and Admiral Canaris remain a mystery since none were recorded, but the Spanish government later expressed gratitude to the widow of Canaris at the conclusion of the Second World War by paying her a pension." The source is: Rich, Norman (1973). Hitler’s War Aims: Ideology, the Nazi State, and the Course of Expansion. New York: W. W. Norton & Company. ISBN 0-393-05454-3. page 173 Preston, Paul (1995). The Politics of Revenge: Fascism and the Military in Twentieth-century Spain. Routledge. pp. 69–70. ISBN 0-415-12000-4. Spanish say Franco said Germany can only continue the war, not win it. Franco and Hitler: Spain, Germany, and World War II By Stanley G. Payne page 247 The British bribed Spanish officials to keep Spain out of the war, as well. https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2013/may/23/mi6-spain-200m-bribes-ww2
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  5. Put it this way, Franco never thought the Germans would win either. That was noted by a Portuguese ambassador. The top Spanish diplomats and military were hoping Germany would win, but never thought they would. Many of them were annoyed the British would not make peace, prolonging the conflict. Franco would not join in unless Britain was neutralised in some way; either through defeat (some hope in late 1940 with the British empire mobilising and Germany just defeated over southern England) or a peace pact. He did not want Spanish territory occupied. The Axis countries had their own agendas and distrusted each other. They never worked well together. Look at the Allies. British generals were in control of American armies, with even joint armies like the First Allied Airborne Army. Hitler had broken promises to other countries, so why should Franco trust him? He never.
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