Comments by "buddermonger2000" (@buddermonger2000) on "Whatifalthist"
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It's worth noting that much of the reason for the current situation in Ukraine is that this is actually two armies who inherited a defensive doctrine from the previous state. The Soviet military knew that NATO would own the skies from day one. So they built masses of air defense and designed their planes in order to contest the skies. Built masses of tanks in order to conduct armored offensives in order to break through the lines under contested air, and made 3 line deep defenses as a way to defeat NATO forces. As well as loads of artillery in order to boost those defenses present.
Now, Ukraine used that very doctrine to contest the skies, break offensives using 3 deep line defenses and massive artillery, against an army who did not invest in SEAD or DEAD capabilities for their air force, and also had tons of armor. So, they use their massive artillery to push using infantry assaults. This is because ATGMs are very effective, and ISR is also about even due to intense drone penetration.
This invasion was conducted in mud season, using light forces, among strong choke points, with massive equipment losses due to logistical failures by the Russians. In short, since Ukraine did everything right, and Russia everything wrong, there has become relative parity, and the spear blunted, allowing everyone to dig in.
That is not anywhere near all wars.
First off, air supremacy changes this calculus greatly. Drone penetration only works when under contested air, and the opportunity exists.
Secondly, armored offensives fail under enemy air superiority. In fact, it's why Ukraine's counter-offensives failed, as they advanced without their AA, and so they were destroyed by Russian helicopters. In such a way as how Russia was destroyed when it lacked its air defense network in that first few weeks of the invasion.
Thirdly, America has insane levels of precision munitions in stockpile, with better precision, allowing them to target important locations like logistical hubs and command and control to make any army Iran fields completely disorganized and near inoperable. While also having a massive logistics focus.
In short, any war would be different. Not because of drones not being a revolutionary technology in warfare that wouldn't matter "in a real war," but instead because about half of the fighting is basically missing from the equation. It's back to WW1 because it's mostly recreated WW1 conditions. No planes, elaborate trench networks (which have always been difficult to break), nullified tanks, and massive amounts of artillery. US-Iran is, many planes, no trench network focus, no artillery focus, mostly nullified armor.
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I think I can't over learn the lessons of the war. But one of the issues with Ukraine is that the Russians messed up massively with their initial ambitions, and daddy America gave the Ukraine the info to avoid the worst outcome that Russia was trying to inflict on them. After a significant loss of equipment and personnel, they then sent their leftovers into areas that had 8 years behind them to get built up in fortifications during the previous war, and then grinded away during mud season while they were stuck on the roads and couldn't avoid anything.
Due to those failures and massive equipment and personnel losses, the Russian Army we see today is a shell of its former self having not been built for the war it intended to fight, and then never adapting it before the invasion thinking it would be quick. And had they invaded during the permafrost, and without daddy America's involvement, they may have actually won too.
And in fact this is something that applies to WW2 as well. The defense is actually quite strong and always has been. The issue with WW2 is that the defenses were always bypassed, which meant that they often didn't matter.
However, the urban fighting which characterized cities like Stalingrad showed that the defense really was quite strong.
Also, come on, you know better than to say that no military technology improved during the 1600s and Napoleonic wars. Pike and shot gave way to riflemen and lines of bayonets with muskets, which meant much more firepower could be massed while also killing off cavalry better.
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