Comments by "buddermonger2000" (@buddermonger2000) on "Possible History"
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You say that the Austrians were in decline since its inception and I want to know what you are on in saying this. Austria was such a power player that they survived all of Napoleon while being effectively across the border from France. Even with all of the defeats in that war, even during the 7 years war, they were still completely intact. I don't see a reason why they should fall in the age of nationalism given that the reason for their collapse into the territories we see today is not a true result of internal conflict, but instead inflicted upon them by the peace deal after the end of WW1. The age of nationalism, for all of the damage it may be able to cause for the Austrians, really only made sense in the context of Austrian defeat. However, an Austria who won victory, after victory, really has no reason for the age of nationalism to destroy them. Everyone looks for way out in the bad times, but no-one revolts in the good times. And unlike our WW1, this would be a rather quick war where the 3 great powers dog piled an incredibly exposed Northern Germany, with relatively little losses meaning that the winners didn't simply get an empty victory.
Btw, to add on to the Austrian gains issue that you spoke about, those are both river borders on each side of the plain, and a mountain range between Hungary and Russia. That's difficult to cross even if a bit sandwiched. It's no defense in depth, but it's certainly far from indefensible.
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@okok-tm7xs Uh, no. Not really. He had the Germans still commit the holocaust so no core motivations have changed.
In fact, the only difference is that they acted upon one from the side of the British.
Separately, people REALLY need to get this idea out of their head that if Stalingrad and Moscow fell that they'd simply capitulate. First off, they're still thinking that they're in a war of annihilation, which is largely correct as a reason.
Secondly, no, they do have ways to not only build more rail but also there are other connections. It's not totally reliant on Moscow. It's a setback logistically, but it's not enough to make them capitulate.
Finally, they didn't even make it to Moscow in this timeline until the Allies came in to the fight.
Seriously, you're saying the Soviet generals would revolt against Stalin in favor of GERMANY, who betrayed them TO START THE WAR, and is actively trying to kill off all of their people and who openly say they should all die.
There's a reason everyone, when given a chance, surrendered to the west rather than the communists or fascists.
You would have to be stupid, and not only stupid but also suicidal, to even consider the thought from the Soviet perspective. It's not Stalin's war. It's Germany's.
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@jasontod5843 I mean, the first thing to note is that the Hokkien and Hakka are explicitly not considered to be the Han Chinese. I'm not sure about the Cantonese, so I can't say much about that, but I'm but I think they might be their own ethnic group. Or maybe they're simply a different language group.
Fundamentally, however, this group coalesced and was already an existent group by the time of the Qing empire, and experienced treatment on that basis. While the language is very much based on Beijing Madarin, at least for governmental purposes, it always has been as it's been the fundamental language of the bureaucracy.
Also, in regards to more blood linkage with the Vietnamese in the south than the northern Chinese, even if true, it doesn't actually do a lot as the Northern and Southern population centers have pretty consistently been unified under the same regime, and even very closely related groups like the Manchus and Koreans have no ethnic affiliation with each other.
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@okok-tm7xs Okay that makes no sense though. From the Soviet perspective, there's little reason to think they'd properly lose since they still have a VERY large army that they're pushing to the front. And frankly, it's a war of annihilation. Surrender isn't really an option. The entire society coming to the defense of the homeland. And in fact, against even more threats in this timeline.
In the face of annihilation, who courts surrender?
On top of That, they're going to have 0 reason to work with the nazis, who, btw, ALREADY betrayed them and are only barely fighting the Allies due to geographic limitations.
Finally, when creating an alternate history scenario, you can't just wave it away and say "butterfly effect makes these people act out of character and their own motivations" as it's completely unbelievable and makes people act not how they are.
In fact, in doing so, you completely change the leadership of the countries involved. I think the channel potential history, when discussing why Germany could never win WW2, put it best in his part two "The long and short of it is that the only way the nazis win WW2 is if they aren't the nazis" and at that point you've created an entirely different war that's really not WW2 as it doesn't actually have the same players.
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@okok-tm7xs No in fact I just went back. He said the Germans did take Stalingrad. And that's about it. They didn't take Moscow, and Leningrad was safe since it was under Soviet control in Finland. Go watch it again.
Separately, they actually started to move industry to the Urals before the war started, they did actually make considerable resources such as steel and even agricultural goods in factories in the Urals. The movement of the population may not be sustainable, however, it's still only a few years. It's not a permanent resettlement.
If I did say they moved resources, that's simply a mistake in writing it out for purposes of consistency in that sentence, but no they did not move resources. However, they were already in the Urals anyway, and powered by the coal from Kuznetsk.
In any case, the situation remains that in this timeline that the USSR has an intact airforce not broken by surprise airstrikes on airfields denying the Germans air Supremacy, a larger army not destroyed by the millions in one summer, and very much the resources still at play since minus Stalingrad and the push towards Kazakhstan, the line actually looks near the same. This is not really a better situation, but it's realistically very similar to what they found themselves in when you factor in no lend-lease. The Germans would've had to destroy the army to get Russia to capitulate
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@okok-tm7xs Their industry and resources are literally moved. So, they still have the production capabilities. So, that part is simply false. In fact, they'll have lost minimal industry as a result. Resources again are also much more plentiful past the Urals, and this plenty is able to be created.
There were huge evacuations of the population as well, thus allowing them to still have a population to form an army. Their army is still intact as they've never been truly broken and never suffered the horrific losses that were 1941 as their army just wasn't at the front to be destroyed, and they had huge ability to reconstitute.
The only limiting factor is fuel, which, if you notice, is also a problem on the German side, and it's why they never even got to Moscow.
Btw, no, you're wrong. They do still have supply. Moscow is a major logistical hub, but it's not the end all be all. Your arguments don't actually reflect the reality of the situation. You're right. If they really lacked industry, manpower, and resources, the situation would be unrecoverable, but that wasn't the situation the soviets were in.
The soviets are in a situation where their enemy is overstretched, exhausted, and fundamentally just out of gas. Their industry is finally coming back online to fully supply everyone, and they've stabilized the Frontline. That is literally the exact worst time to quit, and if the soviets were okay, sacrificing a full 20% of their population to the war effort and multiple armies encircled and destroyed, I see no reason that fewer armies destroyed and a military that has a much better chance to expand since it hasn't been destroyed multiple times over, isn't a chance to fight back and slowly push out of the corner.
However, as I said, first off, they didn't actually lose those cities to the Germans in this timeline. They lost them to the Allies using the German army. So you're simply off base on in the first place.
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@gifs_for_the_peasantry The thing I'd respond to with this is to say these states don't actually spend very much on their militaries. None of the states you mentioned spend very much either. Switzerland has a relatively large army due to universal conscription, but it itself is far below the European norm with regards to defense budgets (0.68% of GDP). France is also under 2% of GDP (1.9%) and it has an expeditionary force meant to perform operations around the world with an emphasis on Africa. Even the Finns for their very large army (relative to their size) don't spend much on their armed forces either having only now pushed just below the 2% mark from a 1.2% low in the last decade. I think it's important to make a distinction between a large army and well funded one with the large part coming exclusively from conscription.
Frankly, only Poland, Romania, and the UK have actually kept up in terms of percentage of GDP on military spending for the last 5 years, with Poland hitting an all-time high of 4.2% (larger than the USA). In real terms, most of Europe has been slacking for more than a decade while Poland is picking it all up basically by itself as it is completely transforming its military into the largest tank army in Europe.
Edit: as an addendum, besides the armies on the eastern flank of NATO, no-one is increasing their military budgets by significant amounts and a few countries have gone down in spending, including ironically, the US and thus total NATO spending has decreased in the wake of the invasion.
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@BasicallyBaconSandvichIV Yeah everything you've said at the beginning indicates you don't actually have those things. Part of that freedom means saying things that people don't like and regulation means you don't have that right. Rights can't be regulated. You are free to be racist that's absolutely the case. That's the downside of it. However, it means you are free to do anything besides hurting others. You have freedom of association and assembly. You have freedom to petition the government (and they the freedom to ignore you). And you have freedom of the press. You're not allowed to lie (that's simply a lawsuit though) and you're not allowed to call people to do a crime and thus implicate yourself in that crime. Those are your only limitations.
Also, no, the only ones with a right to bear arms are the Czechs with a system much more similar to the US than the rest of Europe while also being very in line with the European average.
Most crime in the US is very disorganized and the largest cohort of people in the US dying by firearm are the owners themselves turning it on themselves (2/3 it's a very large problem). The biggest problem is the US murder rate which is depending on the source 2.5x to 5x higher with Iraq having a lower death rate than Chicago. It's also a very interesting point that some of the highest murder areas of the world aren't actually on the very low income bracket as you'd expect and is simply concentrated mostly in the new world.
As for "more freedom" to move around, that's also very very silly. It's trying to say people are more free because they can get to places without a car, even though instead they're simply paying for other services to get them to a place. It's not being more free, it's simply a different lifestyle.
Finally, a lot of countries used to salute their flags, but because of Germany people got scared of any form of nationalism even though it's what actually binds people together through shared beliefs. For the Americans with largely different blood, it's much more important to have that civic nationalism in order to foster the national project and integrate immigrants. Not to mention, you don't actually have to pledge allegiance to the flag (at least in school) since you really won't be stopped. It's by no means a requirement (unless you're swearing in as a naturalized US citizen), but it's certainly a mark of American culture and pride to do so.
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@xenotypos So, what happens is that wars are a temporary decrease. The birthrates recover after the war almost every time until the sustained decrease of the industrial era declines. Even then it usually gets a bump up depending on how many people they lost (eastern Europe never REALLY recovered that rate after WW2, and Germany only got a small recovery bump, compared to the West's baby boom). So wars are ultimately a temporary decrease, but the time of war would, of course, increase the amount of time of that decrease. Also... while you're right about them being better in 1789 at the time of the revolution, however it's about perceptions in many ways.
Even more relevant, the French revolution was an elite led phenomenon just like every revolution. I don't think the enlightenment had as much to do with the revolution so much as France being broke and the nobility having declined in ability in France due to centuries of centralization and neutering. Thus, the most relevant factor was about having a new elite formed outside of the nobility. This phenomenon happened in Britain and the Netherlands, roughly a century beforehand and produced enlightenment thinkers as a result.
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