Comments by "Tony L" (@tlangdon12) on "Anders Puck Nielsen" channel.

  1. I think this is a very well argued analysis, but Putin miscalculated that Kiev woyuld fall quickly, so it seems more likely that he will also miscalculate the degree to which NATO will stick together. Turkey is a potential weak link, but Turkey is the European buffer against the failed states in the Middle East, so Europe would certainly come to Turkey's aid. Northern Finland makes more sense as the point of escalation, but I think it more likely that Denmark, Norway and Sweden would immediately come to Finland's aid, and probably one or two other norther European countries like Holland and the UK.
    1
  2. Russia is probably diverting 25% of its GDP to war, while its allies are only spending a tiny fraction more than what they would have spent on their military anyway - none of Russia's allies are diverting more than 0.2% of GDP to help Russia. Similarly, Ukraine is probably diverting 50% of its GDP to its war effort, but it has lost significant production capacity from the territories it no longer controls. Ukraine's allies are spending less than 0.2% of GDP. On this basis, Russia is stronger than Ukraine.
    1