Comments by "Emanon" (@Emanon...) on "How does PUTIN hope to make the RUSSIAN ECONOMY BULLETPROOF? - VisualPolitik EN" video.

  1. It really isn't about the sanctions or the economy the next few years. The real disaster is the diminishing demography and the exodus of the young, fertile and educated that are emigrating in droves. The Russians from the diaspora that wanted to return have already done so. We're talking generations before the Russian economy can reach a point of stability and equitable growth again, if they can even break the vicious cycle at that point. (Nothing is for sure, obviously, as we don't know what technologies, geopolitical developments or disasters that can occur that will flip the scenario...)
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  2. China's GDP is however artificially inflated due to massive public spending projects that won't be utilised or won't promote further growth in GDP. To put it simply: If I borrow my entire salary's worth every year and hire a dude to dig a hole, because holes are estimated to increase in value, I've effectively doubled "my GDP". The dude will spends his money elsewhere and add to the economy, but the result is a crushing debt with marginal real increase in productivity and valued added to the rest of society. Housing in China is the hole.
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  3. If that means no reality shows and no social media, I might invest in a Dascha on the Black Sea not too many years from now ;)
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  4. Don't forget that it's the country with the highest HIV cases and alcoholism compared to GDP per capita and they simply stopped publishing their statistics...
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  5.  @loveandmoney  I don't place much stock in short term predictions or assessments by economists. Roll a dice or hire a monkey to forecast economic performance. On average it will be only slightly worse off, but you'll save on the "consultant" fee. A theory where you have a limited amount of "unique" outcomes with manyfold variables will never lead to a coherent system of understanding that can be deemed a science. The same applies for medicine when you think about it, but the major difference for medicine is the luxury of times X the same outcome that can be tested under certain conditions and statistically analysed. It neither can or should be an experiment to start messing about with economic levers purely for academical purposes. it leaves us with the study of Economics that has merited a good understanding of the basic mechanisms, but unfortunately is more based in ideological adherence to theories than an actual empirical study of complec factors and their interactions. There are of course exceptions to this. I find it intellectually dishonest that some economists (analysts etc) can speak with such certainty about economic movements and trends, when eg medical doctors will never give patients a 100% guarantee of a certain outcome. Ever. Rant over and out.
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  6. Isn't "disputable information" the bread and butter of economics?
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