Comments by "PeterC" (@peterc4082) on "Джон Миршаймер: Израиль-Палестина, Россия-Украина, Китай, НАТО и война | Лекс Фридман Подкаст #401" video.

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  5.  @Caballaria-sc2sj  The West has no sphere of influence in the Pacific. The point is that Taiwan is China's sphere of influence. I don't know how you can be so irrational. If Mearsheimer does not want Ukraine with the West he must not want Taiwan with the West either. The two are linked directly. Taiwan and Japan, like it or not, are closer to China. And China is the second (recently first) most populous country in the world and is an ancient empire, it is the oldest continues country in the history of the world. It's as old as Egypt but still continues to this day. Taiwan is not in the Western sphere of influence. You may as well say Ukraine is in the Western sphere of influence because de facto Russia has had little influence on Ukraine since their puppet fled after Maidan. Man - think for 5 minutes. You are using a logical fallacy called special pleading. You are saying this is different for arbitrary reasons. But Taiwanese are Chinese, and Formosa was part of China, like it or not. If US wants to keep Taiwan Western it has to keep Ukraine Western too otherwise Mearsheimer is as per usual being irrational and cherry picking/special pleading his arguments. The man does not reason rationally. He is a sophist. You know very well that the US does not fully recognise Taiwan. You do know that Taiwan's place in the UN P5 has been taken away and given to the PRC. Most countries follow the one China policy. The United States' One-China policy was first stated in the Shanghai Communiqué of 1972: "the United States acknowledges that Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China.
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  6.  @Caballaria-sc2sj  Back when Chang Kai Shek left for Formosa China did not have the capability to invade him. But China always said that is part of their country. And America in fact agreed - which you keep on ignoring. America is interfering in China's back yard. America has no rights to that part of the Pacific. It would be as if China or Russia started to make demands on the western hemisphere. I don't really know why you create arbitrary distinctions between 'long established' and recently established. China had no power to reclaim Taiwan back in the day but now will have this power increasingly so. Ultimately if we follow the trajectory, China will be the No 1 superpower in the world. They have more people, a higher average IQ than the US and have easy access to Russian resources. On the other hand Ukraine has been pro-Western too for many years. Their people have voiced their opinion that they want to be part of the West. Russia is a declining power while the PRC is ascending. The Chinese are now having the means to enforce their demands while Russia failed in her influence on Ukraine. Ukraine is fighting Russia and is denying Russia's supposed sphere of influence. I think Mearsheimer is a sophist and a hack. He is only repeating that what's good for the US is what's correct and is ignoring the same issues in Ukraine. But it's not good for the US or Japan to start a war with China, a war they will likely lose because Japan is an effeminate society spoiled by wealth and America is too far away and overstretched in the Middle East, South America, Europe and all over East Asia. I know what you want to say but you're trying to pidgeon hole reality into particular categories which suit your model. The reality is that: Taiwan was always considered a part of China by even the US. Many Chinese there would not even mind returning. China is now becoming stronger and will become even stronger in the future. Taiwan is probably the most important issue for them after taking back Hong Kong. For America, Taiwan is a CPU factory. That's all. There is not the need to keep Taiwan. Now in Europe I would argue that Europe out of Russian hands is key to the well being of America. We Europeans are closer culturally to Americans than Koreans or Japanese or Chinese people on Taiwan. Also we are physically closer. And sort of often form one sort of bloc. America will lose Europe if she refuses to support Ukraine against Russian aggression and thus far America is able to weaken Russia using Ukrainian peoples' own blood. And they are willing to shed it. So unlike Afghanistan and Iraq, the Ukrainians feels Western and one day will make for good allies the way Poles are good allies now. As for Taiwan, if it can deter aggression, that's great, but overall in the long term America will definitely lose against China over there as Americans are not as desperate to keep Taiwan. Remember America lost in Vietnam and lost in Afghanistan and that was against weaker enemies when the tech difference was larger back then when it is now. It's sheer hubris to believe otherwise.
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