Comments by "David Getling" (@DavidGetling) on "UK has turned a coronavirus corner" video.

OK, maybe 200 deaths per day in a month's time, but let's get this in perspective. On average about 1650 people die everyday in the UK, and probably most of those 200 are going to belong to that 1650. So in relative terms we have a very small number of deaths. And don't forget that the IFR has been shown to be comparable to that of flu in a bad season. Now, let's put the exponential growth to bed. As any half-decent high school stats student will tell you, interpolating on a curve is OK, but extrapolating is very dodgy indeed, because there's a good chance the curve would not be the shape you think if you could see its extrapolated regions. And as any high school biology student will tell you, the sigma growth curve looks very like exponential growth until it very suddenly flattens out. And this is what happens to all biological entities because of environmental constraints. In the case of this virus that's access to new people to infect. The new people are limited by those that are now immune, or the fact that we have networks of people, so the virus often encounters the same it has already infected, again and again. So, in fact, our projected exponential curve could very well turn a corner, and flatten off at any time: well before another month. Now let's be realistic about the vaccines that politicians and snowflakes are betting the family jewels on. Firstly we are unlikely to see one generally available until at least the second quarter of next year. Secondly it's not that unlikely that more than half the population won't take it. For most people the risk from covid-19 is negligible, so what rational person would risk taking a vaccine that's been developed in less than a quarter of the normal time. And only a complete fool would accept the government's assurances on safety. Remember their assurances on mad cow disease, and salmonella in eggs. The bottom line is that, no matter how much governments and snowflakes dislike it, we have to live with this virus, as we do with so many others. This means that the vast majority need their old normal lives back. Only the genuinely vulnerable and the paranoid snowflakes should be self isolating. We really need to emulate the sensible Swedes, because nothing else is sustainable.
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@jimbo2629 I didn't say that the vulnerable won't, or shouldn't take a vaccine. For them it is the lesser risk. But most of us, who don't even consider taking the annual flu vaccine, may well decide that , on balance, saying "no thank you" is more prudent.
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