Comments by "David Getling" (@DavidGetling) on "ZOE"
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You know Tim, I was really amused (and a bit angry) to hear some so-called scientists saying we now have exponential growth in infections. You and I both know, by just a quick glance at the data, that we could do a linear regression on the last few weeks of data. We would get a very gentle slope and a correlation close to 1, which would also pass a 95% confidence test for being so. To present this data as exponential growth is outrageous scaremongering.
I'm glad you mention the age groups getting infected because, as we all know by now, almost all younger people just shrug off this virus, so it really doesn't matter how many of them are infected. One can look at it as mother nature vaccinating them.
Your comparison with road traffic accidents made me smile. Myself, and no doubt others, made exactly this observation a few weeks ago. Perhaps the scaredy cat SAGE scientists would like to recommend a ban on motoring.
As for naming these variants, I would suggest names like Tinkerbell and Pinocchio. This gives a much better idea about how much we should be worried by them.
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So yet again it's time to talk about what governments hate to hear mentioned: NATURAL IMMUNITY.
Two large and highly respected studies in Israel and Cleveland suggest that natural immunity is better than vaccination, and may well last a lifetime. Governments completely ignored these studies. In stark contrast they enthusiastically embraced a study from Kentucky that slightly favoured vaccines. But the thing is that the Kentucky study was very much smaller, far less reliable, and even the researches pointed out lots of its shortcomings.
So, yet again, it seems that the advice, given very early on to governments, and later published in the Great Barrington Declaration, was the correct strategy. Namely, just isolate the most vulnerable, and let everyone else get on with their lives until NATURAL herd immunity develops. With the dwindling effectiveness of vaccine generated immunity it's looking more likely by the day that corrupt politicians will eventually be force to follow the advice in the GBD. The only question is how much more damage they will be allowed to do, in their cowardly effort to cover up their incompetence. Vaccines still have a role. They should just be administered to the most vulnerable, along with booster shots. Most of us don't need or want them, and the fact that they haven't undergone the usual minimum of 4 years SAFETY TRIALS does nothing to recommend them.
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So, let me interpret the first bit of what you said. Although the Indian variant seems to be displacing the Kent variant, infection numbers are stable. This seems to suggest that we are simply seeing a different variant doing exactly the same thing. Rather like a gang turf war, where the amount or kind of crime doesn't change, just who is doing it.
Tim, as you and I both understand, wide confidence limits represent very questionable proof. Also, what hasn't been done is a parallel comparison of infection rates for the Kent or other variants. I strongly suspect that if we could compare them all to one another the results would all fall very comfortably within one another's 95% confidence limits. Unfortunately most people reading this won't have a clue what I'm talking about. However the bottom line would be that there is no strong evidence that vaccines are any less effective against any variant.
The connection with obesity is really interesting. The UK has one of the highest fatality rates in Europe, but equally it has by far the greatest proportion of fat people. Coming back after living in New Zealand, Germany and Italy this was something that was very hard to miss. Normalising being fat is not doing UK people any favours.
Finally, on "long covid" am I the only one who recalls how people used to say "I still haven't fully got over that flu I had a few months ago". Are we really actually seeing anything new, or worth worrying about?
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