Comments by "红火树 RedFireTree" (@firetree2007) on "" video.

  1. In 2013, India’s manufacturing sector contributed 17% to its GDP. Over the next 10 years, under Modi’s leadership, it decreased to 12.84% in 2023. This indicates a move away from industrialization. India’s top 10% own 77% of the total wealth. To roughly estimate income distribution using GDP, assume the GDP in 2024 is $4 trillion. Twenty-three percent of this is$920 billion, divided by 1.26 billion (90% of the population), the average income (using GDP) is approximately $730 a year, or$2 a day, which is the UN poverty line. Modi, drawing from his Gujarati experience, has primarily worked with the Adani and Ambani conglomerates. On the one hand, India needs to attract foreign companies, but on the other hand, more foreign companies could hurt the Adanis and Ambanis. Consequently, India has imposed numerous restrictions on foreign companies, leading to more companies leaving India than entering. Another issue is R&D investment. For advanced countries, it is all above 2% of GDP, with China at 2.5% and India at only 0.65%, amounting to $23 billion a year. Huawei alone invests$25 billion a year. Total R&D investment in China is 19 times that of India. The Harvard Business Review (July 19, 2024) reported that only 50% of India’s working-age population has jobs. Among those with jobs, 50% are merely family helpers, many of whom are unpaid. No jobs mean no income, no consumption… and no growth. The bubble of “fastest growth” is now bursting. It was mainly due to borrowing massive amounts of money for infrastructure development. Now, with a total public debt of 182% and interest payments of $131 billion for 2024, which is 24% of its total government spending, this is not sustainable. As a result, the growth rate has fallen from 8.3% to 6.7%, and it is projected to be 6.4% next year. Modi has stated that by 2047, India will be a wealthy developed country. However, this seems like a mere dream. Assuming India will achieve $18 trillion in GDP by 2047, which is today’s China GDP, India would need to sustain above 7% growth for 23 years. But India’s growth rate has already fallen below 7%. This means that in 2047, India cannot reach China’s current GDP. If China maintains a 4% growth rate, its GDP will be$45 trillion by 2047.
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