Comments by "DiewConklan" (@hRt42kuo7jTtmk14) on "Larry Summers Is Very Pleased With Powell's Jackson Hole Speech" video.

I agree. But what he’s really trying to say is that he believes by the time he hikes to 4.5% that inflation will already be down to 4%. So then he will be at neutral. But it seems like wishful thinking and not reality. On the other hand he called 2.25% neutral because it’s just above his target of 2% inflation. At this point though that’s also very far from reality.
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@grtcara8386 everyone who claims they are going to buy big when it crashes is really saying they’ve missed every bull market opportunity to date.
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The Fed’s biggest problem now is that Powell came out all guns blazing like a dragon slayer. Now he’s got the markets attention and they are going to take him seriously. But now he’s also got to walk the walk. So if he blinks in September with a 0.50% hike or in November with a 0.25% hike then the market will stop taking him seriously again and then he’s back to square one.
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Markets are 12 months forward pricing. So expect things to turn around even before the recession.
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@jlvandat69 2-3 quarters of recession starting in Q4 of this year. Market to turn around for Santa Claus. Merry X-mas.
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@jlvandat69 in reality, recession isn’t the root of all evils and the market also knows that. A period of no growth isn’t necessarily harmful to anyone. Very high interest rates and excessive unemployment are dangerous to an economy though. As soon as the end of the rate hikes are within clear sight and unemployment doesn’t appear to be getting too out of hand then markets can safely turn around.
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Basically the biggest single risk to the markets right now isn’t recession, but that Powell goes full Volker mode. So for now markets will have a negative bias until Powell becomes more likely to take his foot off the brakes.
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