Comments by "bj0rn" (@TheLivirus) on "Being A Female Economist & Politics of Populism | Pia Malaney | POLITICS | Rubin Report" video.
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I am not expert on economics, but I do know some about how mathematical models work. According to my understanding, economics is actually very complex as it deals with psychology and feedback loops. It is not at all straight forward to model mathematically. The models we use today are based on certain assumptions and verified using massive amount of data we have gathered from the current economic system. We cannot apply the same models on a completely different economic system, such as UBI, and expect it to yield reliable predictions. What we need to do is to try UBI, gather data, think a lot about what factors are at play, then try to develop models, describe them mathematically, and test how well they agree with the data.
The reality is, we don't know how people will respond to UBI. It is possible that the disappearance of the fear of unemployment leads to most people choosing to not work and make the most out of what UBI provides, leading to a system collapse due to lack of tax revenue. It is also possible that the security of a decent income to fall back on makes people more daring, both as consumers, entrepreneurs and investors, encouraging them to chase their dreams, passions, ambitions instead of settling for secure jobs they don't really enjoy. Perhaps we will be able to design a system that balances itself, e.g. when the tax revenue drops, UBI drops, encouraging more people to look for work, and when it rises, more people choose not to work, and tax revenue drops. It depends a lot on how we design the system, and how people respond to it.
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