Comments by "Marc Jones" (@QT5656) on "What Milankovitch Cycles Will Do To Earth" video.

  1.  @BirdBrainHarus  insurance companies and business act on probabilities all the time. Most people do too. To ignore something unless it's 100% is stupid. Exxon understood the relationship between CO2 and global warming in the 1970s.
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  2. The scientists that have studied Milankovich cycles are the same ones that are worried about current global warming due to anthropogenic CO2.
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  3.  @Hubwood  correct.
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  4.  @devinmichaelroberts9954  No, but many things are 95% certain or more.
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  5. It's the scientists that measure and study Milankovitch cycles that have concluded that they cannot account for the recent warming and that recent warming is due to CO2. Please look it up Google Scholar. Alternatively, Potholer54 and Simon Clark have videos on the topic.
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  6. Of course climate scientists take account of the Milankovitch Cycles.
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  7. The scientific evidence that CO2 is a significant driver of climate change is extensive. The mechanism has been established by physicists for well over 100 years, projections made by climate models in the 1970s (including those made by Exxon) match current observations. Anthropogenic CO2 also explains the shift towards a lighter mix of carbon isotopes in the atmosphere, why the warming is most obvious at at high latitudes, why nights are warming faster than days, why winters and warming faster than summers, why ocean pH is decreasing, and why the stratosphere is cooling. e.g. - Hausfather, Z., Drake, H.F., Abbott, T. and Schmidt, G.A., 2020. Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(1), p.e2019GL085378. - Lacis, A.A., Schmidt, G.A., Rind, D. and Ruedy, R.A., 2010. Atmospheric CO2: Principal control knob governing Earth’s temperature. Science, 330(6002), pp.356-359. - Shakun, J.D., Clark, P.U., He, F., Marcott, S.A., Mix, A.C., Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B., Schmittner, A. and Bard, E., 2012. Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation. Nature, 484(7392), pp.49-54. - Supran, G., Rahmstorf, S. and Oreskes, N., 2023. Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections. Science, 379(6628), p.eabk0063. With respect to water vapor, yes water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas however water vapor is not a driver of climate change, it is an amplifier. The amount of water in the atmosphere varies over a matter of days and by region according to air temperature and the availability of water for evaporation. By contrast CO2 is well mixed in the atmosphere. Water has a residence time of only a few days unlike CO2. If it was water vapor that was driving the recent warming then the greatest warming would be seen in summer and at low latitudes - the opposite of what is actually observed. Interestingly the amount of moisture in the atmosphere has recently been increasing and scientists agree that's because anthropogenic CO2 has warmed the troposphere. Moreover, burning hydrocarbons from fossil fuels is a net addition of water vapor to the system. e.g. - Bengtsson, L., 2010. The global atmospheric water cycle. Environmental Research Letters, 5(2), p.025202. - Al‐Ghussain, L., 2019. Global warming: review on driving forces and mitigation. Environmental Progress & Sustainable Energy, 38(1), pp.13-21.
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  8.  @rps1689  Correct.
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  9. It sounds like you need to read up on the scientific literature because there are big gaps in your knowledge regarding the role of CO2 and climate. Also although solar output is relatively stable over the course of centuries it was much lower millions of years ago when there was much more atmospheric CO2. Without CO2, the 'greenhouse' effect would collapse, water vapor would condense and the earth would end up being a frozen snowball: - Hausfather, Z., Drake, H.F., Abbott, T. and Schmidt, G.A., 2020. Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(1), p.e2019GL085378. - Lacis, A.A., Schmidt, G.A., Rind, D. and Ruedy, R.A., 2010. Atmospheric CO2: Principal control knob governing Earth’s temperature. Science, 330(6002), pp.356-359. - Mills, B.J., Krause, A.J., Scotese, C.R., Hill, D.J., Shields, G.A. and Lenton, T.M., 2019. Modelling the long-term carbon cycle, atmospheric CO2, and Earth surface temperature from late Neoproterozoic to present day. Gondwana Research, 67, pp.172-186. - Shakun, J.D., Clark, P.U., He, F., Marcott, S.A., Mix, A.C., Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B., Schmittner, A. and Bard, E., 2012. Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation. Nature, 484(7392), pp.49-54. - Supran, G., Rahmstorf, S. and Oreskes, N., 2023. Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections. Science, 379(6628), p.eabk0063.
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  10.  @nogreatreset8506  Feel free to look up actual science: - Hausfather, Z., Drake, H.F., Abbott, T. and Schmidt, G.A., 2020. Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(1), p.e2019GL085378. - Lacis, A.A., Schmidt, G.A., Rind, D. and Ruedy, R.A., 2010. Atmospheric CO2: Principal control knob governing Earth’s temperature. Science, 330(6002), pp.356-359. - Mills, B.J., Krause, A.J., Scotese, C.R., Hill, D.J., Shields, G.A. and Lenton, T.M., 2019. Modelling the long-term carbon cycle, atmospheric CO2, and Earth surface temperature from late Neoproterozoic to present day. Gondwana Research, 67, pp.172-186. - Shakun, J.D., Clark, P.U., He, F., Marcott, S.A., Mix, A.C., Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B., Schmittner, A. and Bard, E., 2012. Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation. Nature, 484(7392), pp.49-54. - Supran, G., Rahmstorf, S. and Oreskes, N., 2023. Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections. Science, 379(6628), p.eabk0063.
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  11. Your biology teacher was wrong. We are 1000s of years away from another ice age due to orbital forcing.
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  12. You might be interested in this paper: Shakun, J.D., Clark, P.U., He, F., Marcott, S.A., Mix, A.C., Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B., Schmittner, A. and Bard, E., 2012. Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation. Nature, 484(7392), pp.49-54.
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  13.  @ronarnett4811  No it doesn't. The scientists that have studied Milankovich cycles are the same ones that are worried about current global warming due to anthropogenic CO2.
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  14. No, not true at all. CO2 is hugely important to global climate e.g. - Hausfather, Z., Drake, H.F., Abbott, T. and Schmidt, G.A., 2020. Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(1), p.e2019GL085378. - Lacis, A.A., Schmidt, G.A., Rind, D. and Ruedy, R.A., 2010. Atmospheric CO2: Principal control knob governing Earth’s temperature. Science, 330(6002), pp.356-359. - Shakun, J.D., Clark, P.U., He, F., Marcott, S.A., Mix, A.C., Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B., Schmittner, A. and Bard, E., 2012. Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation. Nature, 484(7392), pp.49-54.
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  15.  @barryschwarz  correct.
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  16.  @christopherfortney2544  You need to go back to university. Epic fail.
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  17. Exactly, scientists have studied this question and we're 1000s of years away from warming due to orbital forcing. The current warming is due to the extra CO2 added to the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. - Hausfather, Z., Drake, H.F., Abbott, T. and Schmidt, G.A., 2020. Evaluating the performance of past climate model projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(1), p.e2019GL085378. - Lacis, A.A., Schmidt, G.A., Rind, D. and Ruedy, R.A., 2010. Atmospheric CO2: Principal control knob governing Earth’s temperature. Science, 330(6002), pp.356-359. - Supran, G., Rahmstorf, S. and Oreskes, N., 2023. Assessing ExxonMobil’s global warming projections. Science, 379(6628), p.eabk0063.
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  18.  @asimian8500  So you deny the greenhouse effect exists?
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  19. But changes in the Sun cannot explain the recent warming whereas the increases in atmospheric CO2 can.
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  20. 😂 No. See for example Gerlach, T., 2011. Volcanic versus anthropogenic carbon dioxide. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 92(24), pp.201-202.
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