Comments by "Aleksa Žunjić" (@aleksazunjic9672) on "Can you calculate war? Are war games pointless? (Praxeology vs the Ossipov-Lanchester equations)" video.

War can be predicted with certain probability, TIK does not understand the math to do it :)
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Well, you are wrong. Abrams and other US generals tried to use their firepower advantage. Giap on the other hand tried to avoid battles where Americans could employ their firepower advantage, at the same time trying to use his manpower advantage at certain points.
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What you fail to understand is that term on the left side of the equation would be somewhere between 1.4 and 2.6 . Not very precise, but it certainly would not be 0 or 4. This could be enough to draw certain conclusions about the outcome of war.
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@Swift-mr5zi No.
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@DS127 There is never 100% probability in real life. In practical application usually you have 99.9% , 99%, 95% , 90%, 50% probability etc .
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@DS127 One of the definitions of certain is "limited" , according to Cambridge dictionary. "To a certain extent" etc ...
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@Alex_Fahey You never said, but it is deductible from your expression. I.e. your expression severely limits range of possible answers. You fail to grasp large part of mathematics that does not work with exact values.
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@Alex_Fahey You are embarrassing yourself by your clear lack of knowledge :D I will try to explain in a simplest way possible. When you have unknown mathematical variable, its value could be any number. Literally any. When you tie down variable to a certain expression (like you did), you are limiting that set of possible values. In your case, you limited the values to a range from 1.4 to 2.6 . Is this usable in practice ? It could be in certain cases.
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@Alex_Fahey Only thing valid in your original comment is "With that basic calculation the answer is likely close enough to accurate to be useful." Rest only shows poor understanding of mathematics. In fact, the greater sample you have (more soldiers), final result would move towards some kind of average. Law of Large Numbers.
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War can be predicted with certain probability, TIK does not understand the math to do it :) That is the whole problem - there are a lot of people like TIK who are afraid of mathematics, and especially statistics.
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In modern times foot solider has all the information on the internet available. Therefore, this could influence his decisions a lot.
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@justinswanton287 He knows that thousands of Ukrainian soldiers were killed or captured in Mariupol, same in Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, he knows that Ukraine is now conscripting 45+ years old males and even 25-35 women, and that is enough for everyone.
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@justinswanton287 These are not facts, these are tales. And anyone with working brain understands that Russian losses are lower (smaller army, better firepower) and that Ukrainians could not sustain million man army, especially since they already suffered much and military age men are fleeing the country. Of course, someone could believe the tales, but even human stupidity has its limits.
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@justinswanton287 If Ukrainian soldier wants the fact he could simply compare Russian claims with things that his own government admitted. Add to that constant Russian artillery fire on his position, death of his colleagues, and he will get the picture. Keeping someone in the dark was hard even in WW2, now is almost impossible.
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